South Carolina is turning defense into offense and a Final Four berth
How South Carolina’s defense is fueling their offense, and an improbable Final Four berth.
South Carolina’s problem this year was certainly not defense.
Frank Martin and the Gamecocks have been at it on that end all season. They’re currently sitting at 2n- best in the country in defensive efficiency, and have been among the top three for most of the year.
South Carolina’s opponents have scored more than 75 points just six times this season, and were held under 95 points per 100 possessions in 22 of SC’s 36 contests. With an 8-0 start that stretched to 15-3 after Sindarius Thornwell returned from a mid-season suspension, the Gamecocks asserted themselves early as a physical, defensively dominant squad. Nothing is made easy for opponents, with bulldog defensive wings Thornwell and P.J. Dozier leading their harrying, imposing style. Ballhandlers are hounded, post entries swarmed, and 3-point shooters run off the line.
But it wasn’t the defense that dropped the Gamecocks to the 7-line on Selection Sunday. An offense that barely managed to hit average during the regular season (149th by KenPom) was a key component in a rough 3-6 stretch just before the NCAA Tournament started. South Carolina couldn’t hit 3s ( 33.3 percent) or 2-point jumpers (34.3 percent), despite taking almost two-fifths of their shots from the mid-range. The combination made them one of the worst shooting teams in Division I, and seemed to cap their postseason potential. Only Louisville, in 2012, had made the Final Four with an offense outside the KP top 100 in the last fifteen years.
South Carolina has blown up that precedent with a run to the Final Four — the first in school history. But at first glance, it doesn’t quite look like the defense is carrying them there. Other than the Baylor game, the defense has been just OK by their standards. Holding Marquette and Duke to 1.00 and 1.05 marks per possession respectively is nothing to sneeze at. But the Gamecocks were just 4-7 during the regular season in games they failed to hold the opposition below 1 point per possession. Now they’re 3-0 in those games during their run to the Final Four. Something else is going on: the offense has risen to match the defense.
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After edging to a raw efficiency mark of 1.01 points per possession in the regular season, the Gamecocks have scored 1.15 points per possession in their four tournament games. It’s an especially impressive mark with two of the four games against Baylor and Florida, who carried two of the country’s top-20 defenses into the game.
So what’s changed for South Carolina? Some Sindarius Thornwell magic certainly doesn’t hurt — the SEC player of the year hasn’t scored less than 24 points in each contest, and has hit 11 of his 26 3-pointers (42.3 percent). But the team as a whole is still under 33 percent from 3 for the tournament, and struggling a bit with turnovers.
The biggest offensive change, ironically, starts on the other end. South Carolina has turbocharged its tournament offense by taking advantage of the opportunities afforded to it by its excellent defense. Let’s take a deeper look.
Running down their dream
A team that generates as many turnovers as South Carolina does should be getting out in transition when they force them, especially when the offense can struggle in the half-court, and it’s something they did take advantage of through the year. Take a look at this chart, showing their offensive efficiency by length of possession during the regular season.
South Carolina scored 1.06 points per trip when the possession lasted 10 seconds or less (transition), and 0.97 per on all other possessions. Much of it was driven by increased efficiency at the rim and an excellent mark from 3. South Carolina hit well over 40 percent of its 3s in transition possessions, but an abysmal 26.5 percent from beyond the arc in the halfcourt.
They made use of these advantages, but not to extreme effect. By my numbers, just 29 percent of South Carolina’s possessions lasted 10 seconds or less. Hoop-math’s numbers peg them with 27.1 percent of their initial shot attempts coming in transition, and 23 percent of their total count. Both are top-100 marks in the country, but neither are outliers.
That switch has flipped in the tournament. South Carolina is attacking teams with a vengeance in transition, and it’s paying off for their offense in a big way. Check out this second chart, which isolates South Carolina’s tournament run.
Even controlling for the auto-foul end-of-game situations, South Carolina is crushing offense in transition. They’ve scored 1.27 points per trip on transition opportunities so far in the tournament, compared to 1.08 points per possession on all others. While they’ve been better than typical in the half-court this tournament, it’s in transition where they’ve made big gains, and pushed the offense from passable to Final Four-worthy.
South Carolina has been relentless and efficient in pushing the ball to the rim and paint area in transition. Though they’ve struggled from 3 on the break, they’ve hit 78 percent of their 2a when they’ve gotten the opportunity to run. This is driving their incredible efficiency in transition — their 66.39 percent eFG%on transition attempts is over 15 percent better than all their other attempts.
And they’re combining this efficiency with increased emphasis. 32 percent of all South Carolina’s possessions have ended with a shot attempt, free throws, or a turnover within 10 seconds; 37 percent have started with a shot attempt within the first 10 seconds of a possession. Both numbers are up about 5 percent from their regular season marks.
They’re taking every opportunity to run. They’re scoring 1.43 points per transition possession after a steal, over 2 PPP on runouts after blocked shots, and even 1.18 PPP on 17 transition possessions after a made shot. This comprehensive emphasis has let South Carolina turn everything into an opportunity to run, and helped the offense reach its potential.
Even when they don’t take a shot, the team’s players are aggressively pushing the ball in transition, seeking any weaknesses to probe. In re-watching South Carolina’s victory over Florida on Sunday, there aren’t more than a handful of possessions where the Gamecocks don’t have the ball past halfcourt within 5 seconds of taking possession. If an opportunity is there, it’s taken; otherwise the ball is pulled back out for their half-court sets.
And here’s a quick breakdown of which players have been doing the damage in transition.
Thornwell and Dozier, as per usual, have been leading the offensive charge for the Gamecocks in transition. Dozier has been particularly effective, rarely settling for jumpers and hitting nine of his eleven two-point attempts. Chris Silva and Duane Notice have been putting in work, too. Silva especially has been excellent as a floor-running big — all three of his at-the-rim transition makes were assisted by a guard.
This transition attack will be key against a Gonzaga squad that’s currently ranked as the best defense in the country, by adjusted efficiency — the only team currently ahead of South Carolina. The one place the ‘Zags have been vulnerable is in transition. Here’s a breakdown of Gonzaga’s defense by length of possession, similar to South Carolina’s offensive charts above.
In ‘half-court’ possessions, teams are scoring just 0.81 points per trip; in transition, it’s up to 0.97. This is still an excellent mark, but it’s clearly one of the best places to probe against a stout defensive squad in Gonzaga. Per the above chart, transition is the only time the Bulldogs are not holding teams to desperately bad marks from the field. This ‘weakness’ plays into South Carolina’s new style, and will need to be exploited if Frank Martin’s squad has designs on reaching the title game.
South Carolina’s chances at reaching college basketball’s pinnacle likely ride on their defense, and their ability to get stops. But how these stops are used to fuel the team on the other end could be the difference between a great Final Four story, and a national championship.