Coming off the first year in the last five where they missed the postseason, the Cardinals are looking to pick up the pieces, while embracing a new identity
It was a different type of off season than the standard issue routine for the St. Louis Cardinals. There was no postseason hangover to get past, because for the first time in the last half decade, there were no playoffs in St. Louis. Instead, the winter was characterized by trying to make right what went so suddenly wrong, as well as deal with the cloud of pending punishments for the hacking scandal instituted by former scouting director Chris Correa.
Now with the page turning on all of those issues, the Cardinals are setting upon a season where a new era is on the brink. However, the old guard’s time is not completely past yet either, and they are looking to not go quietly into the night.
The long time Cardinal core is fading away, as Molina and Wainwright are no longer the featured acts in town. Matt Holliday has left that core, as Albert Pujols did before him. Led by Matt Carpenter, Carlos Martinez and the headline free agent acquisition Dexter Fowler, a new era is affirming its place in assuring the franchise remains at its standard level of excellence and continuing the ‘Cardinal Way’. And this new era is confronted with a more substantial obstacle than its predecessors ever faced, in the Chicago Cubs, an irresistible force that buried them in the rear view mirror by second month of 2016.
The Cardinals are faced with not only steadying their grip, but gaining ground, in the new reality of an NL Central that unquestionably does not run through St. Louis. Can they regain their previous footing and close the ground between them and the World Series champs? Here’s a look at what to expect from the 2017 St. Louis Cardinals.
Pitching
It had been the long-standing order that you could count on Cardinals starting pitching to be among the most reliable entities in all of baseball. Just two years ago, the Cardinal starting collective posted the lowest ERA since the 1989 Mets and featured a mixture of the top established and up & coming arms in the game.
Fast forward to two years later and some of those same things ring true, but others have changed drastically. Carlos Martinez has continued to rise towards the top of National League hurlers, having just posted career-highs in wins (16), innings pitched (195.1) and WHIP (1.22). Martinez will enter the season with a new, $51 million contract extension and having seized Opening Day pitching responsibilities for the club at age 25.
And while Martinez’ star has continued to solidify, another young Cardinal arm enters the year at a crossroads. Michael Wacha was an All-Star two years ago along with Martinez, but since September of 2015, he has posted a 5.50 ERA while dealing with recurrence of the Thoracic Outlet Syndrome that curbed his 2014 season. With Tommy John surgery curbing top prospect Alex Reyes’ season before it started, Wacha’s presence will be more important than ever to stabilize the Cardinals rotation depth.
Outside of the young Cardinal arms, each of three veteran presences –Adam Wainwright, Mike Leake and Lance Lynn– each enter the year from much different situations. Wainwright’s day’s as the team’s unquestioned ace have moved past him, and he is looking to rebound from the worst season of his career. Leake underwhelmed in his first year with the club, posting an ERA a run higher than his career average in his debut year with the club. Meanwhile, the team’s longtime workhorse Lynn is looking to comeback from a year off due to Tommy John surgery himself, and could be subject to the standard inconsistencies of such an ordeal.
While there is a solid prospect base behind the front five, including top 100 prospect Luke Weaver and rehabbing former first round pick Marco Gonzales, the Cardinals are in uncharted waters of having more questions than certainties on the mound.
Lineup
Coming off a season where they unexpectedly hit the second most home runs in team history, which was 88 more than they hit the year before, who the Cardinals will be offensively this year is a bit of toss up. One thing for sure, they should be on-base monsters, especially after adding Dexter Fowler to ignite the lineup. Between Fowler, Aledmys Diaz and Matt Carpenter, the potential top three batters in the order would have combined for a .380 on-base percentage last year, as all three placed in the top 16 hitters in the NL in OBP. Add in Yadier Molina’s .360 and Stephen Piscotty’s .343 OBP, and the Cardinals could live on base this year.
And while they have all of the tools to reach base, there is a gap in the clean up role that could be problematic for the team in being able to quickly capitalize on that glut of base runners. With Matt Holliday and Brandon Moss having departed, manager Mike Matheny is left with having more hope than promise in the options he will look to deploy in the prime power slot in his lineup.
Piscotty could get the first look, but he is more of a natural line drive hitter than a pure power source. He connected for 35 doubles a year ago, and added in 22 homers, but he currently profiles more as a second or fifth hitter. Meanwhile, Grichuk possess the type of natural power that is displayed in the role, but has been wildly inconsistent over his first two years.
Outside of that young duo, there is Jhonny Peralta and potentially even Molina, but both are not ideal options who would be clear reaches if cast in the role. Matt Adams has displayed natural pop in the past, but has not succeeded as an everyday player and does not have a clear everyday role currently.
It is fairly clear that the most evident place for an upgrade is at the heart of the lineup, and it could be a pursuit that follows the team into the trade deadline, at the latest.
Bullpen
The Cardinals struck gold a year ago in the understated signing of Seung-hwan Oh, who excelled in every role throughout the Cardinal bullpen and was a godsend as a replacement for now-dispatched closer Trevor Rosenthal. After converting 19 saves last year after transitioning from that setup role, Oh will be the day one closer this year, while Rosenthal will look to be deployed in a more creative capacity this season, partially inspired by the way the Andrew Miller was utilized by the Cleveland Indians during the postseason.
In further efforts to diversify their bullpen offering, the club signed lefty Brett Cecil to a four year, $30.5 million deal this winter, after injuries to Tyler Lyons and Zach Duke pushed Kevin Siegrist into another heavy workload again.
All in all, the balance of the bullpen weighs a bit towards the back end, but it is the strength of the club’s pitching offering.
Manager
Early in the off season, the Cardinals rewarded manager Mike Matheny will a three-year contract extension. It was par the course, as the club had little reason to part ways with its manager, who has won the NL Central three times in five years on the bench and has never finished lower than second place. However, there are plenty of followers of the club are looking for some breakthroughs from a Cardinal team that has seemingly hit a roof underneath Matheny that finds it being outmaneuvered in the postseason, and ultimately falling somewhere short of its full potential.
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So where do Matheny’s expectations lay in the new year? Mainly, it is to both narrow the gap between the Cardinals and the Cubs and induce more consistent play that returns them to the postseason. St. Louis’ five-year postseason run came to an end in 2016, a season where they finished 17.5 games back within their division and finished five games under .500 at home. Many of these tweaks fall at the foot of a manager that will be asked to make better use of a talented, but inconsistent roster. Fair or not, that is the type of business that makes its way to skipper.
X-Factor
Without a doubt, the biggest difference in the 2016 and 2017 Cardinals can be the impact that Dexter Fowler can bring to the team. Since taking on the role out of necessity in 2014, Matt Carpenter became one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. However, his impact and development as a hitter made him better cast in a run producing role, but moving him away would once again strip the team of a suitable lead off hitter.
Enter Fowler, who spent the past two years atop the Cubs lineup and coming fresh off a year where he finished sixth in the NL on on-base percentage and making his All-Star debut. After opting out of his deal with the Cubs, he instantly became the perfect fit in St. Louis in many different ways. He solved the aforementioned lack of leadoff presence, but also becomes an instant boost on the basepaths, fixes a hole in center field and adds a much needed boost in charisma to the notoriously stoic Cardinal clubhouse.
Fowler is the ultimate tone setter in his new home in as many ways as could be imagined.
Prediction
The Cardinals did take a set backwards in the standings last year, but are also undergoing a steady resurfacing of who they are as team. They are more parts establishing young talents than they are aging vets, and because of that, they are learning who they are on the run. The real test will be if they can learn those lessons this year, as they deploy a very specifically retooled team to take on a very similar challenge within the NL Central as they did a year ago.
Overcoming the Cubs outright seems to be a rather daunting task, and there is not much to indicate they are ready to unseat baseball’s best team. However, they do look to be in position to close the narrow gap that kept them out of the postseason a year ago. It will be a packed class of runner ups around the NL; a group of teams that could just as easily be champions of their respective divisions.
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But a return to the Wild Card play-in game should be an expectation for Matheny’s club this year, and making it back to the NLDS could happen as well.
A second place finish, knocking on the door of 90 wins and a playoff run should be ahead for these Cardinals.