DraftKings NBA Picks March 31
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks March 31
We are up to ten NBA games in the main tournament tonight. DraftKings has been splitting the night and the earlier games to help with the botched lineup lock thing, but it hasn’t helped quash the Twitterstorm much. The consensus is that a large percentage of the players want the game time lock back on. We will see where this ends up. At any rate, they are all in the main tournament tonight. Keep an eye our for resting players as the season draws to a close!
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The money line last night was down to 268.5, which is still a solid total. My lineup with the Blazers/Rockets stack did very well with little of the glory going to Harden. This was in spite of a pedestrian 13 DraftKings points from David Nwaba. Thank you Ricky Rubio!
My other lineup was sunk by awful outing from Paul Zipser (as many points as turnovers), and Shabazz Muhammad. Too bad because I had Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler in that one
The winning lineup was up at 361.25 DraftKings points. He capitalized on Rubio, Rajon Rondo, and Ish, and rolled the dice on Devin Booker. Booker’s 1.6% ownership vaulted him to victory, along with a big night from Nikola Mirotic and Marcus Morris.
I can’t stress enough how important it is to watch our Twitter feed right up until lock time. We will try and relay the information out to you as soon as we can, along with any lineup changes. If you can’t do that, it may be best to avoid any of the later games. With the season running down, playoff contenders are sitting players more and more, and there isn’t always a lot of advanced notice.
If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for $10 worth of free entry tickets. We have plenty of advice on the site to help you turn that into a solid bankroll!
Point Guards
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($12,900): I will keep this simple: most nights if you fade Westbrook, you lose. However, this is not most nights with more than two thirds of the league in action. Still, Westbrook has 123.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Spurs this year. He is practically carrying the team by himself right now. Westbrook has three straight 70+ DraftKings points games, and he has hit that mark in six of the last ten. It’s really tough to fade him with the way he is playing right now.
Stephen Curry ($9,500): Curry racked up 59 DraftKings points on Monday night against the Rockets, and that was in Houston. He has averaged more than three DraftKings points per game more at home this year, so we could realistically see Curry break 60 tonight. There are options if you are looking to fade Westbrook. One of the better ones is Curry.
John Wall ($9,200): The stats say Utah is tough on point guards. Wall doesn’t care. He had 49.25 DraftKings points on them the first time around. Wall is also sporting a streak of three straight games with over 60 DraftKings points. I wouldn’t expect him there against the Jazz, but he could get over 50, still making him worth the money.
Honorable Mention:
Isaiah Thomas ($8,100): Thomas picked up 46.75 DraftKings points in his only game against the Magic this year. Stats say that Orlando is very good in point guard defense, but they have given up some big games lately. This could be another with the way Thomas shoots. I trust him more than Kyrie Irving on the second night of a back to back against horrid 76ers.
Kemba Walker ($8,100): Walker was a horrendous 7-25 from the floor on Wednesday night, which contributed to his clunker against the Raptors. He has another juicy matchup tonight against a Denver team that has been destroyed by point guards lately. Walker picked up 46 DraftKings points in them in the first meeting. Get back on that horse. Walker is going to threaten the elite tonight with his output.
Goran Dragic ($7,400): The Knicks are usually good defending the point. I think the stats are a bit skewed since the Knicks are so bad everywhere else that the point guards don’t need to do much. Dragic has 94.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Knicks. His production has increased with Dion Waiters out. It appears that Waiters is out again, so Dragic should have a monster game for his price point.
Dark Horses:
Jrue Holiday ($6,700): Much like last night, there is a surplus of great options at the point. Holiday racked up 50 DraftKings points in his first game against the Kings. Now he gets to go against many of his former teammates. I doubt they can hold him in check either. Holiday has at least 5x value in six of the last seven games. This looks like seven of eight.
Ish Smith ($6,100): Reggie Jackson insists he can play, yet the Pistons keep him sidelined. Why? Aside from being cautious, Smith it outproducing him anyway. The team has looked a little better with Jackson out. Smith has averaged 34.3 DraftKings points per game with Jackson out. He can be considered, even against the Bucks.
Cory Joseph ($5,400): Joseph has racked up more than 40 DraftKings points in each of his last two games. The Pacers are fairly weak at the point this year as well. Joseph put up 31 DraftKings points on them the first time. He looks primed for at least that total tonight, making him a great bargain play.
My picks: Curry(PG), Joseph(G); Joseph(PG)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($12,200): Harden picked up 61.25 DraftKings points on Monday against the Warriors. That is a tad better than Westbrook’s average against the Spurs, so yes, you can fade Westbrook tonight. However, I would wait to see how Harden’s wrist feels after last night. He doesn’t usually sit games out, but considering that it is his shooting hand and the Rockets are already in the playoffs, keep an eye on Harden’s wrist and workload. With so many other great options, it may be prudent to fade Harden as well.
DeMar DeRozan ($8,500): DeRozan only played 29 minutes in the first meeting. Expect a lot more minutes tonight and a lot more production with Kyle Lowry still out. DeRozan has at least 5x value in four of the last five games after going cold in mid-March. Both him and Joseph are playing very well right now. I doubt the Pacers put a stop to that.
Honorable Mention:
Klay Thompson ($7,100): Thompson has been a man possessed with Kevin Durant out. He racked up 42.25 DraftKings points against the Rockets on Monday. Like Curry, he gets more than a three DraftKings points per game boost at home, so 6x value is likely once again.
Nicolas Batum ($6,900): Batum picked up 36.5 DraftKings points in his first meeting with Denver, which makes him a little over 5x value. He is not an elite scorer like many of the upper tier at this position, so he doesn’t have as high of a ceiling. What he does do is more of the little things that stuff a stat sheet, which gives him a more stable bottom line.
Avery Bradley ($5,900): Bradley has been turned loose by the Celtics again, and his production is getting back to where it was before his injury. He has at least 5x value in three of the last four games. Bradley put up 37.5 DraftKings points in his only other game with the Magic this year. There is no reason for him not to do it again.
Dark Horses:
Victor Oladipo ($5,800): Oladipo has as lower ceiling because Westbrook does everything and then some on this team. However, Oladipo has been over 30 DraftKings points in seven of the last ten games. One of those was 32.5 against the Spurs. He is a solid bargain play, albeit with little upside.
Eric Gordon ($5,300): Buddy Hield‘s first game against New Orleans is intriguing, but I like Gordon starting with Ryan Anderson out for at least another week. I will take Gordon over the more streaky Lou Williams. That is not to say that LouWill wont have a better game. It is saying that Gordon is a far more stable commodity with just as much upside as Williams.
Malcolm Brogdon ($5,200): Brogdon had some growing pains early in the season, but he has locked down the starting point guard job lately. He has at least 5x value in five straight games. That is unlikely to change since he takes care of the ball and is a really good passer.
My pick: N/’A; Brogdon(G)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($10,000): LeBron has 124 DraftKings points in just two games against Philadelphia, and could be in line for even more with Robert Covington out. This is one of the better matchups for James this season, but I still have the sinking feeling that the Cavs are either going to rest players, or be up by 30 at halftime…..or both. That is the risk you take with LeBron tonight.
Paul George ($8,000): Kawhi Leonard was held under 3x value against the Thunder two weeks ago, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is well under value in three games against Detroit this year. That leaves George, who quietly has at least 5x value in seven of his last ten games. Furthermore, he has not been below 4x. He has a stable floor and nice upside, and is a suitable fade option if you are afraid of LeBron for the same reasons I am.
Honorable Mention:
Gordon Hayward ($7,300): Hayward racked up 44.75 DraftKings points on Washington in the first meeting. He could get at least that tonight since the Pacers have been destroyed by outside shooters for the last couple of weeks.
Jae Crowder ($6,000): Crowder has 74.5 DraftKings points in two games against Orlando this year. Now he will tangle with Terrence Ross and not Aaron Gordon, so he has the potential to bully the Magic even more in this one. He is a great bargain play tonight. Against the undersized Suns and Heat, Crowder picked up 73.5 DraftKings points last week before running into the Bucks. Expect good things tonight!
Danilo Gallinari ($5,900): Gallinari hasn’t found his shooting stroke since missing ten days. In his three games back, he is just 7-33 from the floor. He had 31.25 DraftKings points against the Hornets the first time around. He will be a great value for this price if he can find his shot tonight. That is the risk you take though.
Dark Horses:
Josh Richardson ($5,300): Richardson put up 31.75 DraftKings points on the Knicks on Wednesday. He gets the Knicks again tonight, so expect similar results with Waiters still out. I still like the potential of Richardson, even though he hasn’t shown much of it. He could go off at any time. This is as good a time as any!
Terrence Ross ($5,100): Ross has finally turned into what the Magic envisioned when they traded for him. He has at least 5.5x value in each of the last five games. You should temper your expectations some against Boston, but at this price, Ross still has a great shot to get 5x value.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($4,500): We all need a little TLC tonight! With Covington sidelined again, he is going to be the chalk value play of the night. Luwawu-Cabarrot has 63.25 DraftKings points over the last two games, and he is still dirt cheap. Enjoy the value, and find your separation elsewhere.
My Pick: Luwawu-Cabarrot(SG), Crowder(SF), Richardson(F); Luwawu-Cabarrot(SG), Gallinari(SF), Richardson(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($10,300): Even with Cousins having a big game on Wednesday, Brow still picked up 56.25 DraftKings points on a good Dallas front. A.D. now has four straight games of more than 5x value. The Kings are still getting things figured out up front, but they have no answer for Davis or Cousins. If you play both, I don’t blame you.
Draymond Green ($7,800): Green picked up 41.75 DraftKings points against Houston on Monday night. His output has not been very consistent lately, but he still matches up well with Houston. Green does a little bit of everything, so his floor is usually very stable. It will be for this game anyway. He may not hit 40 again, but he will be close.
Honorable Mention:
Zach Randolph ($6,700): Marc Gasol is still listed as a game time decision, but the coaching staff doesn’t seem optimistic that Gasol will play. That leaves Randolph as a great value play once again. It’s harder to be a value play at this price, but considering what Davis and Cousins just did to Dallas, I can see 6x value happening.
James Johnson ($6,500): Johnson had a big night against the Knicks on Wednesday, picking up 42.25 DraftKings points in just 27 minutes. You can roll the dice that Kristaps Porzingis will duplicate his production again, but Johnson still outdid him for $1,000 less.
Serge Ibaka ($5,600): Ibaka gets a rare treat. He gets to face the Pacers for a fifth time this year. And it is a treat because Ibaka has averaged 31.2 DraftKings points against them in those four games. His production is stabilizing as his role is defined in Toronto. Ibaka is a very good value play tonight with the potential for well over 6x value.
Dark Horses:
Kenneth Faried ($4,200): For some strange reason, the Nuggets have decided that Faried is more valuable playing 20 minutes a game. Yeah, I don’t understand it either. At any rate, Charlotte has struggled up front, and Faried is a beast. He racked up 29 DraftKings points in just 19 minutes against Portland. He could do that or more tonight.
Justin Anderson ($4,000): Anderson started on Wednesday against Atlanta, but Luwawu-Cabarrot overshadowed anything Anderson did. Anderson will see plenty of minutes again tonight. That may or may not translate into production, but just getting the chance is half the battle when dealing with bargain players.
My pick: Johnson(PF); Johnson(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($9,600): Cousins will get a crack at his former team tonight. While Davis is usually the focal point of the offense, Cousins could see a few more bones thrown his way against his former team. I expect a bigger game from Boogie than A.D. tonight.
Nikola Jokic ($9,100): Jokic put up 56 DraftKings points against Charlotte in just 32 minutes in the first game. He has had a rash of good opponents lately, which makes it look as though Jokic is slowing down. Don’t buy into it. He is still a great play against Charlotte tonight.
Rudy Gobert ($8,200): Gobert ate Washington alive in the first meeting, putting up 52.75 DraftKings points on them. He has at least 6x value in four of the last six games. There is no reason for him not to get 6x value yet again.
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Vucevic ($7,700): Boston has struggled against centers at times this year, but so far Vucevic has not been one of them. That said, Vucevic has at least 5x value in all but one game – a blowout loss to the Warriors in which he played just 25 minutes – in the last ten games. He is playing very well right now, and on a night full of great center options, he makes for an interesting contrarian play.
Andre Drummond ($7,600): Drummond has 132 DraftKings points in three games against Milwaukee so far this year. We all know what a disaster the Bucks are against centers. It wont be Marcus Morris that has a career night tonight. It could be Drummond though.
Dark Horses:
Willy Hernangomez ($5,600): Hassan Whiteside played just 28 minutes because of the blowout nature and foul trouble, which limited what Hernangomez could do. He still picked up 23.25 DraftKIngs points. While not bad, it is still a little under value. Willy still has six straight games of more than 23 DraftKings points. He has a solid floor right now, and still has the potential for a big game against the Heat.
Greg Monroe ($5,300): Monroe has been a thorn in Drummond’s side this year, putting up 106.5 DraftKings points on him in just 75 minutes over three games. Monroe still doesn’t start, but he is easily the best frontcourt option for the Bucks. He has at least 20 DraftKings points in every March game, so he has a good floor as well.
Jonas Valanciunas ($5,200): He picked up 30.75 DraftKings points in the first game against Indiana this year in just 23 minutes. Valanciunas has dominated Charlotte and Orlando, two equally weak teams up front, in the last two games. He has 72.5 DraftKings points in those games. Expect him to be well above value here as well.
My pick: Drummond(C), Valanciunas(UTIL); Cousins(C), Drummond(UTIL)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for NHL and the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! I will also have the round by round picks for the NCAA Tournament, the place where your bracket is never busted. Once again, make sure to follow our Twitter feed leading up to tipoff!