DraftKings Early NBA Picks April 1

There are only two games in the early DraftKings tournament today. There is one game of overlap with the main tournament, but hopefully we will have any Bulls-Hawks out news before the 2:30 Eastern lock time. Of course, if we still had the late swap, we wouldn’t have to worry about it, and could still have those fancy all day tournaments that were so much fun.

Point Guards

Best Bets:

Chris Paul ($8,800): The Lakers are awful against the point. This game will likely be a blowout, but Paul has 96.25 DraftKings points in just 55 minutes against the Lakers this year. Even though he has played less than three quarters of the game, he has still destroyed them. Paul should have no issues getting value here.

Dennis Schroder ($7,400): Schroder has averaged 35.2 DraftKings points per game against the Bulls this year, which puts him a touch under value. That said, he is a little easier to trust than Rondo because he is the unquestioned starter in Atlanta, and isn’t really being pushed for minutes by anyone.

Honorable Mention:

Rajon Rondo ($6,900): It’s hard to go off of any previous stats that Rondo has posted this year because his role on the team has been so volatile. He does have 47.75 DraftKings points in 60 minutes against the Hawks this year, but we all know that his play is much better with the starting unit. Rondo has two straight 40+ DraftKings points games against the Bucks and Cavs, two solid teams. I like him against the Hawks at the G position.

Jordan Clarkson ($6,000): Clarkson has only been under 5x value three times in the last seven games. The worst of those was against the Clippers. However, he was ice cold from the floor in that game. Some of that has to deal with the defense of the Clippers, but I doubt he goes 1-9 again. He should be close to 5x value.

Dark Horse:

Tyler Ennis ($3,500): Much like Luol Deng, Nick Young has been phased out of the lineup. That has meant plenty of minutes for Ennis, who is taking over the role vacated by Lou Williams. He is not the scorer Williams is, but Ennis does have three straight games of double digit points, and has proven to be a capable passer. He has 64.5 DraftKings points over the last three games, so he is providing good value right now.

My picks: Paul(PG)

Shooting Guards

Best Bets:

D’Angelo Russell ($6,800): Russell put up 35 DraftKings points on the Clippers ten days ago. Only his eruption against Washington on Monday has topped that performance since. Russell is a solid play with a lot of upside, and his floor is much better than it was early on. He is one of the safer plays today.

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,100): The return of Bazemore has cut into Hardaway’s minutes and production, but he is still putting up close to 5x value at times. Honestly, his cost is a little too high for his production, and on a normal slate I would stay away, but we have very limited options today. We could do worse.

Honorable Mention:

J.J. Redick ($4,400): He and Jamal Crawford still split the minutes about evenly, but Redick has been the one on a roll lately. He also has averaged 26.7 DraftKings points per game against the Lakers to Crawford’s 20.3, and he is $200 cheaper. We likely wont be burdened as much by price on this small slate, but if you find yourself in a pinch or with $200 extra, Redick is the play over Crawford.

Dark Horse:

David Nwaba ($3,300): Nwaba still played 30 minutes on Thursday, but he had a disappointing game in terms of production. Still, anyone at this price playing 30 minutes a game for a rebuilding team is worth a shot. He could go off at any time.

My pick: Russell(SG)

Small Forwards

Best Bet:

Jimmy Butler ($9,600): Butler is a must-use option today. His production has been through the roof with Dwyane Wade out. Someone told the Bulls that they still have a shot at the playoffs, so apparently they are trying again. Butler’s worst game with Wade out was against LeBron James and the Cavs on Thursday, and he still racked up 44.5 DraftKings points. Use Butler! Get your separation elsewhere!

Honorable Mention:

Taurean Prince ($4,800): Prince is still starting with Paul Millsap out even with Bazemore back. His minutes haven’t slipped either. Prince has 81.75 DraftKings points in the last three games since he joined the starting lineup. He looks like a safe play once again unless Millsap plays. He is still listed as out, but he participated in parts of practice and the Hawks are still playing for seeding. Millsap could return on little notice.

Brandon Ingram ($4,800): Ingram has averaged 27.7 DraftKings points in three games against the Clippers this year. He racked up 35.75 in the most recent game. The Lakers have upgraded Ingram to probable, and as of right now, he has no minutes restriction. Keep an eye on this, but if Ingram is there in full capacity, he is a good bargain today.

Dark Horses:

Kent Bazemore ($4,300): Bazemore is still on a 25 minute cap, but he did a lot of damage in 20 minutes against Philadelphia on Wednesday. Bazemore picked up 38 DraftKings points in that span. It will be a tougher run against the Bulls, but not by much. Bazemore is averaging 23.6 DraftKings points over 24.4 minutes in three games against Chicago this year. He could approach 6x value if he plays 24 minutes again.

Denzel Valentine ($3,900): Valentine picked up 27 DraftKings points in his only game against the Hawks this year, and that was in spite of shooting 3-10 from the field. He has mostly outperformed Paul Zipser, but he is still coming off the bench. However, with his price this low, I don’t mind taking the chance. I did when he was up around $5,000.

My Pick: Butler(SF), Ingram(UTIL), Valentine(G)

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

Julius Randle ($6,800): I’m saying no to Blake Griffin here. Is he capable of dominating the Lakers? Absolutely. However, he has only played about 26 minutes per game against them this year because of blowouts. He picked up just 26.5 DraftKings points against them ten days ago because he wasn’t needed for most of the second half. Give me Randle, who will play most of the game, and wont have a face Griffin later on. Randle picked up 36.25 DraftKings points in his last game with the Clippers. I trust him a lot more than Blake today.

Nikola Mirotic ($6,000): Mirotic has been on fire lately. He has more than 42 DraftKings points in three of his last four games! That makes him nearly a 7x value. Only Philadelphia and Dario Saric were able to cover him on the outside. Atlanta doesn’t have anyone that can with Millsap out.

Honorable Mention:

Ersan Ilyasova ($5,900): Ilyasova has been a solid producer with Millsap out. He has not been under 4x value, and has been over 5x in four of the six games. Ilyasova is a good cash game play with a solid floor, but he doesn’t have a ton of upside.

Dark Horse:

Thomas Robinson ($3,400): Ivica Zubac supposedly has a high ankle sprain even though his status is still labeled as questionable. If it is a high ankle sprain, the Lakers may well just shut him down. They are playing for a lottery pick, and have seemingly been looking for something to allow them to tank without deliberately doing so. That leaves Robinson in a good situation to soak up some minutes. He doesn’t always do well with his minutes, but we know he can score in limited chances. There are worse players to take a shot on.

My pick: Randle(PF), Mirotic(F)

Center

Best Bets:

Dwight Howard ($8,000): Howard only has 102 DraftKings points in three games against the Bulls this year, but both frontcourts look much different than they did in those matchups. Gone are Taj Gibson and Paul Millsap. Howard’s production has been way up with Millsap out. He should hit 5x value today against the Bulls.

DeAndre Jordan ($7,700): Jordan has averaged 38.8 DraftKings points in three games against the Lakers. Perhaps more impressive is the fact that he has done it in 28 minutes per game! Blowouts be damned, Jordan should hit value before he watches the end from the bench.

Honorable Mention:

Robin Lopez ($4,600): Lopez has struggled against Howard this year, but he is becoming a larger part of the offense with Wade out and Gibson gone. He wont carry the team anytime soon, but the increased offensive production has him routinely above 25 DraftKings points. He should be close to 5x value if you need to go cheap.

Dark Horse:

Tarik Black ($3,700): Black had a huge game after Zubac exited on Thursday. Timofey Mozgov has been shut down, so Black should start at least a couple of games with Zubac sidelined. I expect Zubac to at least miss this game, so I am all over Black as a value play!

My pick: Black(C)

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