Gonzaga’s road to the title game has been tougher than you think
If the Gonzaga Bulldogs lose to the North Carolina Tar Heels on Monday night, there will no doubt be a familiar and played out refrain from their chorus of critics.
The Bulldogs’ naysayers’ logic will go something like this, “Gonzaga might be pretty good, but they didn’t play anyone in the regular season, had an easy path to the national title game and once they faced a ‘real team,’ we saw what happened.”
It will be an argument steeped in fallacies. Arguments are made up of premises that lead us to a certain conclusion, so let’s deal with each premise of the argument in turn and then we’ll refute the general conclusion.
Premise 1: Gonzaga didn’t play anyone good in the regular season
This premise is largely based on the fact that the Bulldogs play in the West Coast Conference, which is historically loaded with subpar teams. The idea that the WCC is weak compared to the power six leagues — the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC — is irrefutable. According to KenPom, which aggregates adjusted efficiency margin among the members of the league, the WCC ranks out as the 11th best conference in the country behind powerhouses like the Mountain West and the Missouri Valley.
This year, though, the WCC did have at least one quality opponent for the Zags. The St. Mary’s Gaels finished the regular season at 28-4. Based on adjusted efficiency metrics, they are currently a top 15 team in the country despite being punished with a No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament where they played a close game against the Arizona Wildcats. Gonzaga beat the Gaels three times this season … by an average margin of 17 points. That’s pretty impressive.
The Bulldogs also played a reasonably difficult non-conference schedule. Based on the heavily relied upon RPI, Gonzaga’s non-conference strength of schedule (69th) was better than one-third of the other top three seeds in the NCAA Tournament, including Duke (102), Florida State (120), Oregon (89) and UCLA (282).
Specifically, the Zags played two Sweet Sixteen teams and another round of 32 team on neutral courts in the non-conference, defeating Arizona, Iowa State and Florida. All three of those teams were really good this season. The Wildcats shared the Pac-12 regular season title and won the Pac-12 Tournament. The Cyclones won a game against Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse handing Bill Self just his 10th home loss in nearly 15 years at the venue. Meanwhile, the Gators demolished a Kentucky team that many thought could win the tournament by 22 points in Gainesville.
For comparison’s sake, Gonzaga earned one more KenPom top 25 win than North Carolina during the non-conference and finished the season with more RPI top 25 wins than the Tar Heels as well. The Bulldogs had few opportunities to pick up those middle of the road wins that bolster resumes because the gap between them, the Gaels and the rest of the WCC was so large, but the idea that this Gonzaga squad didn’t play anyone during the regular season is patently false.
Premise 2: Gonzaga had an easy path to the title game
Of the two premises involved in this argument, the second one — that Gonzaga’s NCAA Tournament path has been relatively easy — is certainly the more accurate of the two. Based on KenPom’s rankings using adjusted efficiency margin, the Bulldogs opponents — Northwestern (38), West Virginia (7), Xavier (31) and South Carolina (24) — from the round of 32 to the Final Four had an average ranking of 25.00. Of the teams in the Final Four this season, that is the lowest average rank.
However, when put into historical context, it’s not that uncommon for a team to receive a similar path. The easiest road to the title game for a No. 1 seed since 2002 actually happened last year when the Tar Heels faced opponents with an average rank of 29.75 from the round of 32 to the national semifinal. Two other No. 1 seeds have also faced easier schedules during that time frame.
Having a bracket break in your favor doesn’t rule out title game success either. That North Carolina team was a Kris Jenkins 3-pointer away from a chance to cut down the nets last season. Kansas (27.00), one of the other two No. 1 seeds with an easier path, won it all in 2008 and both Maryland (2002, 20.50) and Louisville (2013, 20.00) had just slightly tougher roads on their way to the title.
So, yes, Gonzaga has had a slightly easier path than normal to get to Monday night, but no, that’s not out of the ordinary and no, it does not justify the argument’s conclusion.
Conclusion: Therefore, Gonzaga is obviously not good
The final conclusion of the above argument is that Gonzaga simply isn’t as good as other teams. It’s one that has been proven wrong time and time again this season as the Bulldogs have consistently sat atop nearly every advanced metric ranking available for college basketball.
Despite that, the Bulldogs opened as a 2-point underdog in Las Vegas late last night, but all of those metrics — ones based on the performances on the court this season — favor the Zags. KenPom rates Gonzaga as a 4-point favorite with a 63 percent win probability, FiveThirtyEight says that win probability is 62 percent, ESPN’s BPI has the school as a 2.8-point favorite with a 58.8 percent chance of winning and Sagarin has Gonzaga as a 1.7-point favorite.
Next: NCAA teams are choosing defense over offensive rebounding
In spite of all of that, the Bulldogs still have their detractors and only one thing might be enough to keep them quiet. That’s cutting down the nets on Monday night.
Junior point guard Nigel Williams-Goss perhaps said it best when he was asked about respect for the program and their path to the Final Four on Saturday night. “No one’s here by accident,” he mused about the other teams in the field. “We have a chance to play for it all. And we’re here to win it.”