Welcome back to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column. This is the Monday, April 3rd edition. We will continue to explore pitching options for Monday’s MLB FanDuel slate of games and evaluate the top pitching plays of the day, along with value options. We’ll also target pitchers to avoid in your lineup, or focus on for hitting. Evaluating pitchers is a key component to building a lineup for a big pay-day!
With twelve Opening Day games on the schedule, we have an overwhelming 24 pitchers, most of whom are at the top of each team’s rotation, to pick through for Monday. Here’s a list of the pitching matchups, with the pitchers we’re considering for our lineups and targeting for our hitters in bold:
Edinson Volquez at Stephen Strasburg (1:05pm ET)
Julio Teheran at Noah Syndergaard (1:10pm ET)
Gerrit Cole at Rick Porcello (2:05pm ET)
Jon Gray at Junior Guerra (2:10pm ET)
Marco Estrada at Kevin Gausman (3:05pm ET)
Justin Verlander at Jose Quintana (4:10pm ET)
Danny Duffy at Ervin Santana (4:10pm ET)
Jeremy Hellickson at Sott Feldman (4:10pm ET)
Jhoulys Chacin at Clayton Kershaw (4:10pm ET)
Corey Cluber at Yu Darvish (7:05pm ET)
Felix Hernandez at Dallas Keuchel (8:10pm ET)
Ricky Nolasco at Kendall Graveman (10:05pm ET)
Let’s start by looking at the top scoring MLB FanDuel pitchers for Monday…
Next: Top Scoring Pitchers
Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitchers
Few things are certain in MLB FanDuel, but we feel very confident claiming Clayton Kershaw ($12,600) is going to have a HUGE day against the Padres, in Los Angeles Monday. Last season, the Padres had the 2nd highest K% in the majors, 25.0%. Only the Brewers were worse with 25.5%.
Also, looking at the wRC+, or Weighted Runs Created Plus statistic, which quantifies offensive value of runs, the Padres were 85 (league average is 100), 2nd worse only to the Phillies who had 82.
Last year, Kershaw averaged 10.39 strikeouts per nine innings, 3rd only to Stephen Strasburg ($9,700) and Noah Syndergaard ($11,000) among available starters on Monday. Finally, Kershaw had a quality start, (QS is worth around 22 MLB FanDuel points), in 81% of his starts last year. You won’t be able to afford some of the big hitter plays of the day with Kershaw in your lineup, but if you can find enough hitting value, he’s giving you an immediate advantage at pitcher.
Syndergaard is your next best option, followed by Strasburg. But if your’e going to spend big, go with Kershaw.
Next: Top Mid-Range Pitcher
Top Pitchers
Finding the best option among the mid-salary-range pitchers is challenging, because there are so many solid choices. Oddly, I ended up narrowing down my search between Jon Gray ($8,200) and Junior Guerra ($8,100), looking only at the pitching match ups. The problem is, Gray and Guerra are pitching against each other. So, we have to make a decision on one.
Guerra was one of my favorite MLB FanDuel pitchers the last half of the season, in 2016. Junior was 9-3 with a low 2.81 ERA and 7.43 K’s per nine innings. The Rockies have a decent offense, but they had the 9th worst wRC+ at 92 and a strikeout average of 21.3%, 11th worst in MLB. And the Rockies struggle with offense on the road. So Guerra is a decent play for Monday.
But, the Brewers offense in 2016 was horrendous, and aside from a decent pick-up in Shaw, they haven’t made many meaningful improvements for 2017. Milwaukee had the 6th worst wRC+, 90, and a strikeout ratio of 25.5%, worst in the majors last year. So, Gray is facing one of the worst lineups in baseball coming into the 2017 season. Only Kershaw has a better match up.
Gray had a high 4.61 ERA last year and was roughed-up a few times on the road. But Jon had 9.91 strikeouts per nine innings in 2016, 5th among all starters on Monday and almost tied with Madison Bumgarner. The last time Gray pitched in Milwaukee, he only gave up four hits and two earned runs and fanned ten hitters. So we’re going with Jon Gray. His value is too obvious to avoid, and overshadows Guerra’s return.
Next: Pitching Value
Pitching Value
Looking for value among the cheaper pitching options wasn’t difficult. We’re going to talk about most of the cheaper pitchers as targets for stacking hitters. One exception is Jeremy Hellickson ($6,900). Hellickson is facing Scott Feldman ($5,000) and the Reds, in Cincinnati on Monday. Feldman only had one quality start in 40 games last year. Also, Scott had only 56 strikeouts in 77 innings, splitting his time between the Astros and Blue Jays. In fact, if you’re looking for value at hitter positions, you should consider some Phillies like Rupp or Herrera.
So even on the road Monday, Hellickson has a good shot at the six MLB FanDuel points with the win. Jeremy is facing a Reds lineup who had the 5th worst wRC+, 89, and a 21.1% strikeout ratio. Last season, Hellickson had 17 quality starts, or a quality start every other game he pitched. The odds of Jeremy landing a QS against the Reds is high on Monday, which could yield an additional 22+ MLB FanDuel points. So for under $7K, you’re getting a pitcher who should have a floor of close to 30 MLB FanDuel points. That’s a bargain!
Next: Offensive Pitching Target
Offensive Pitching Target
As mentioned yesterday, I really like a stat in follow FantasyCPR columnist’s FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots article. Brian highlights in the FanDuel MLB Preview 83% of winning MLB FanDuel lineups in 2016 had two or more stacks, and only 2% of winning lineups avoid stacks. Stacking, is when you put multiple players from the same team in your lineup. Again, the idea is the team is likely to have great success against a pitcher, and your lineup will benefit from getting the most scoring. If you cast a wider net, picking a player from each team, you’re more likely to miss scoring.
We already talked about how we like stacking Phillies against Feldman. We also talked about Kershaw as an obvious top play of the day. Facing Clayton for the Padres is Jhoulys Chacin ($5,500). Chacin is a HEAVY fade. Chacin only had quality starts in 32% of his 22 total starts last season. Jhoulys had an ERA of nearly 5 per game, and struck out hitters well under one per inning. The Dodgers have a decent lineup and Yasmani Grandal ($2,800) is a great option at catcher, against Chacin. Consider stacking Grandal with Corey Seager ($3,600).
Another pitcher I’m targeting for my hitters is Edinson Volquez ($6,000). Volquez looked brilliant for the Royals two seasons ago, but that didn’t last long. In 2016, Volquez struggled significantly. In 189 innings pitched, Edison only had 139 K’s. He also had a 5.42 ERA, one of the worst among the starters on Monday. Volquez and the Marlins are in D.C. facing a very good Nationals batting order. If you fade Seager at SS, Trea Turner ($3,700) is your best option. Turner and Seager should each have a great Opening Day. Also, look at stacking Murphy (2B), Zimmerman (1B), and Harper (OF). The Nats hitters should have a field-day with Volquez.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel. You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game. But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours before a game. So always stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup. Follow us on twitter, @fantasycpr, for updates as we get closer to lineup lock time. Good Luck today FanDuelers!