The first short track race of the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series season could throw a monkey wrench in things, but the leaders are starting up front.
Remember the old adage about how it’s better to be lucky than good? Having both talent and luck on your side is even better, and Kyle Larson is finally experiencing both of them as he heads into the STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday.
Though Larson had some bad luck running out of gas with a chance to win the Daytona 500, he’s had nothing but good fortune since, and that plus his undeniable driving skill and a fast No. 42 Chevy have him at the top of the standings with a win in his pocket. Mother Nature helped him out by raining out qualifying on Friday, meaning he’ll start on the pole for the second straight week — and also have a primo pit stall on a pit road that can be tricky.
Conversely, stars who have started the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series slowly now have some work to do at a track where running in the middle of the pack for too long is fraught with peril. Consider Hendrick Motorsports teammates Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr., who now need to work their way to the front from the 17th and 21st starting spots, respectively.
Johnson excels at Martinsville, but he’s taken more trips to Victory Lane in the fall race than in the spring. Besides, the shortest track on the schedule isn’t exactly the place you want to try to right the ship after a slow start, especially with the cars who have been faster than you so far in front of you. That could make this STP 500 even more intriguing than it usually is.
Next: What are the stage lengths for the STP 500?
WEATHER FORECAST:
The Martinsville area is expecting rain soon, but Weather.com says it won’t arrive until Monday. The entire STP 500 should be run under very pleasant conditions: mostly sunny with temperatures in the mid-60s and no reason to expect the weather will change and force crews to adjust to it on the fly.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH:
- Restarts, restarts, restarts: There have been relatively few cautions due to accidents since Daytona, but that has a way of changing at Martinsville. Getting out in front is arguably as important here as at any track around, and Larson, in particular, has been aces on restarts the last few weeks. If he or whoever is in front in the closing stages can do the same, their chances of winning increase exponentially.
- Can the high groove work? Rain can sometimes reduce the amount of side by side racing on a green track, but Friday’s rain wasn’t all that bad and Kevin Harvick noted during the Camping World Truck Series race on Saturday that Martinsville Speedway already had a lot of rubber on it. Truck drivers were finding some joy running a higher line in Turns 1 and 2 to get a run down the back straightaway, but hugging the curb is still typically the faster way to get around this short track.
- Could this be the week JGR breaks out? Kyle Busch thinks it’s just a matter of time before Joe Gibbs Racing gets a victory, and the STP 500 is certainly a prime candidate for it. Gibbs cars have won five of the last 11 spring Martinsville races, including the two most recent ones. Kyle Busch will start 10th and Denny Hamlin 12th, and either or both of them could contend for a win from there.
PREDICTION:
We shied away from Larson last week and it cost us, but it’s hard to go with a guy to win two straight when he only entered the season with one career win. But if we want to stay with a hot hand, even one who’s never taken the checkered flag at the STP 500 before, why not Martin Truex Jr.? He’s been fast everywhere so far, and there’s no reason to expect anything different at Martinsville.
For our dark horse pick, Clint Bowyer has been getting more and more comfortable in his No. 14 Ford, and Stewart-Haas Racing cars won both the 2012 and 2015 spring Martinsville races. He’ll start eighth and would seem to have as good a shot as anyone for a breakthrough other than the Gibbs crew.