National Championship 2017, Gonzaga vs North Carolina: Preview, predictions

Here’s what to expect when the Gonzaga Bulldogs meet the North Carolina Tar Heels in Monday’s college basketball national title game.

Following another memorable NCAA Tournament, the college basketball national title game between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and North Carolina Tar Heels is set for Monday night in Phoenix.

Gonzaga has silenced doubters with its first run to the championship game in program history. The Bulldogs held off a late South Carolina rally for a 77-73 victory in Saturday’s semifinal behind 14 points, 13 rebounds and six blocks from freshman Zach Collins off the bench.

North Carolina is in its fourth National Final under Roy Williams and will hope to avenge last year’s crushing loss to Villanova at the buzzer. It wasn’t pretty, but the Tar Heels will gladly take Saturday’s 77-76 triumph over Oregon thanks to 25 points and 14 rebounds from Kennedy Meeks.

While the Bulldogs haven’t faced a team seeded higher than No. 4 West Virginia, they’ve been ultra-efficient on both ends of the floor and feature one of the most talented rosters in the nation. North Carolina will still be the biggest challenge of Gonzaga’s season, particularly if Meeks and Justin Jackson repeat their performance from Saturday.

Unlike the previous game for both teams, this is a matchup of strength on strength. Both teams feature excellent frontcourts with tons of depth and a number of options who can take over offensively.

Collins will again be a huge key, as North Carolina’s athleticism and proficiency in transition could be a tough matchup for fellow big man Przemek Karnowski. At 7-foot with NBA-level athleticism, Collins has the ability to keep up with North Carolina’s relentless effort on the glass.

That’s going to be the determining factor on Monday night, as the Tar Heels make up for inconsistent outside shooting by being the best offensive rebounding team in the nation. Tony Bradley seems to get a hand on everything, while Meeks and Isaiah Hicks piled up a combined 12 offensive rebounds against the Ducks.

Gonzaga will be a different level of challenge than an undersized Oregon team without Chris Boucher. While North Carolina has found success on the glass about just against everyone, the Bulldogs rank 44th nationally in defensive rebounding rate and have enough depth to counteract any foul trouble.

The Bulldogs rank No. 1 in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, and have backed up that ranking with a string of terrific performances on that end in March. North Carolina’s rank of 16th is title-worthy, but the Tar Heels have been prone to lapses and will have to defend for all 40 minutes on Monday, which hasn’t always happened this year.

As Gonzaga’s halfcourt defense is unparalleled in college basketball, North Carolina’s best hope will be to get out in transition and hope Jackson can repeat his strong perimeter shooting performance. If the Bulldogs can reasonably limit the Tar Heels on the fast break, they will win the first title in program history.

Health is also a concern for the Tar Heels, as point guard Joel Berry is dealing with multiple ankle injuries. Berry really struggled to shoot the ball on Saturday, and will now face the daunting task of going up against Nigel Williams-Goss, who was terrific against South Carolina.

Ultimately, Gonzaga’s balance and versatility will be the biggest difference-maker on Monday. The Bulldogs have proven an ability to win against a number of different styles of play such as West Virginia and South Carolina, and are one of the few teams with enough size to match up well with the Tar Heels.

Monday’s game should be close throughout, and North Carolina’s offense will put together a couple of spurts, but the Bulldogs will finally cut down the nets with a championship.

Prediction: Gonzaga 71, North Carolina 65

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