National Championship 2017: 3 keys to victory for Gonzaga
Here are the keys to victory for the Gonzaga Bulldogs when they play for the national championship against the North Carolina Tar Heels
We made it! It’s the last game of March Madness and the college basketball season. New blood takes on blue blood, as the Gonzaga Bulldogs look to take down the North Carolina Tar Heels for the first championship in school history. Gonzaga’s looking to put the final touch on a season in which they’ve lost just one game.
Here are three keys to victory for the Bulldogs, as they look to break through and make just a bit more history for their school, and score a big victory for the non-major conferences.
Tamp down on North Carolina’s offensive rebounding
The end of the Oregon-North Carolina game was a great visual for a performance from North Carolina that’s been dominating all season. Securing not one, but two offensive rebounds after missed free throws to seal a victory might be the most Tar Heel thing you’ll see all season. North Carolina has dominated on the boards all year per KenPom, grabbing 41.7 percent of all misses on the boards.
Gonzaga needs to be able to control North Carolina there. While the Tar Heels aren’t a great shooting team — at least, on their first shot — the extra opportunities given to them by pounding the boards and rarely turning it over are often the difference between winning and losing. Gonzaga has been decent defending their own boards this year, ranking 47th in defensive rebounding in the country. And they certainly have depth in the back line to challenge North Carolina, with Karnowski, Collins, Tillie, and Jonathan Williams. But keeping North Carolina off the offensive boards is a singular challenge, with their personnel and determination. If Gonzaga secures a win, a big part of it will be rebounding.
Can Johnathan Williams cover Justin Jackson?
One of Gonzaga’s few weaknesses is a lack of depth at wing defender. Their rotation, at the nominal 1 through 3, doesn’t include any players taller than 6-foot-4. That could be a problem on Justin Jackson, a 6-foot-8 wing for North Carolina who has been their most consistent scorer in this tournament. His prototypical length and height on the wing, combined with a newly deadly 3-point stroke, is difficult for anyone to cover.
The Bulldogs do have someone they can unleash on Jackson. Johnathan Williams, a power forward for the ‘Zags, has the length and lateral quickness to cover Jackson. He was a big part of Gonzaga’s game plan against Gonzaga when Trevon Blueitt presented a similar challenge from a wing scorer/height standpoint. He’s likely Gonzaga’s best shot to guard Justin Jackson, as there’s really no one else on the team who can both keep up with Jackson’s prolific off-ball movement and rise up to truly bother his shot from the outside.
This does run the risk of getting hurt on the boards – as we noted above, North Carolina is excellent there. And Williams plays power forward for Gonzaga so if he’s outside covering Jackson, the Bulldogs will need to either play three big men or ask the likes of Jordan Matthews and Silas Melson to box out Isaiah Hicks. How Gonzaga balances guarding Jackson, who usually plays at the 3 – and protecting the boards is one of the key strategic push-and-pulls of the game.
Win the 3-point battle
One place Gonzaga should have a clear advantage over North Carolina is from behind the 3-point line. While most of North Carolina’s production from behind the arc comes from two guys — Justin Jackson and Joel Berry — Gonzaga has 4 players shooting a high volume over 37 percent, and three more that have the ability to hit deep shots. Their 38.1 percent mark from 3-point land is top-45 in the country, several percentage points better than UNC. Especially with Joel Berry struggling in this tournament, Gonzaga will have the opportunity to distance themselves from the Heels with their outside shooting.
Next: 3 keys to victory for UNC
While they haven’t been shooting extremely well this tournament, Gonzaga buried Xavier’s zone under a hail of threes in the Elite 8, and their hot 9-19 shooting against South Carolina bought them enough space to withstand their last charge in the Final Four. Especially against North Carolina, which thrives on offensive rebounding and a high volume of 2-point shots, Gonzaga will need to win the battle from outside to have a good chance at winning this game.