The MLB season is in its third day, and we’re rolling right into the mayhem with a gamble on the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals.
While a glitch kept me from publishing the pick on this website, I went on yesterday’s Julio Teheran vs. Noah Syndergaard Under 7. Fortunately, that game barely managed to hang on, as despite the score being 0-0 in the bottom of the seventh, I had to nervously sweat it out, as the Mets relentlessly put a six-spot on the board.
The Braves — unsympathetic to under bettors — managed to put runners on second and third in the top of the ninth with nobody out, but luckily, Robert Gsellman miraculously escaped the frame unscathed, thanks in large part to a curious double play to end it. Given how both teams were scoreless so late into the contest, a dreadful bad beat was narrowly avoided to begin the campaign.
Each game is a win, loss, or push (unless a game’s pitching matchup changes, in which case the game doesn’t count). Also, each over/under bet is scored as if it were to win $100, so for example, yesterday’s Braves/Mets affair had an over/under of 7 with -110 odds, so had that lost, it would have been -110 deducted from our total units, but instead, the win tacks on +100. Below that you’ll find today’s over/under play for this first Tuesday of the new season.
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
Jake Arrieta vs. Adam Wainwright
UNDER 7.5 (-120) (via OddsShark)
When these two NL Central clubs opened up the season on Sunday night, runs were a little hard to come by, mostly thanks to the dominant work of Carlos Martinez, and while you can’t expect Adam Wainwright to duplicate that performance, there is hope that he can provide just enough to help propel the under to a victory.
The 35-year-old former staff ace is coming off an abysmal year, one that saw him register career highs in ERA (4.62), WHIP (1.40) and opposing batting average (.287), but under the right circumstances, he’s still capable of delivering.
Despite his overall woeful numbers from a season ago, Wainwright was actually very solid within the confines of Busch Stadium, posting a 7-4 record in 16 starts at home to go with a 3.20 ERA. He was also much better in nighttime outings (10-5, 4.03 ERA) compared to pitching during the day (3-4, 6.14 ERA), while recording two quality starts versus the World Series champion Cubs in three tries.
But if we’re banking on a pitcher’s past success against tonight’s opponent, then you’ll really like what Jake Arrieta has done when taking on the division rival Cardinals. In 13 career starts opposite the Redbirds, the former NL Cy Young award winner is 7-2 with a stingy 1.85 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, while holding St. Louis to a minuscule .205 batting average. Not only that, but one of the Cards’ best hitters, Matt Carpenter, is 0-for-24 lifetime facing the right-hander.
Arrieta has also been someone fashioned to getting out to strong starts to his campaign, as since joining the Cubs, he has made nine starts in April, en route to going 8-1 with a 1.44 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in baseball’s first month. If he gives us even something close to that, we’ll gladly take it, and with the line at 7.5, there’s solid potential for the under to cash.
Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Record: 1-0, +100
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A bit of info
First impressions on an audience can be tricky, so let’s make this quick and painless. My name is Matt Zylbert, a former baseball handicapper for Vegas Insider. In four seasons, I racked up two first-place finishes in MLB Over/Unders (’13 and ’14), beating out many of the top experts in the country.
In addition, I have accumulated a handful of seasons in which I hit 55 percent or higher with totals since I first started doing this in 2009 (career-best is 57.5 percent), and considering these bets typically come with the generic -110 odds, that winning percentage can be very valuable over the long haul.
I look forward to bringing my proven expertise with baseball over/unders to FanSided for the 2017 season.
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