What we learned in March: A post-NCAA Tournament NBA Draft roundtable

The end of the NCAA Tournament wasn’t quite as thrilling last season, but it does mark the official beginning of NBA Draft as more and more prospects will begin to make decisions about their futures in the coming days. As usual, several prospects made themselves look better with their performances in March while others stumbled, so we wanted to get together and chat about them.

There are obvious limitations to scouting based on such a small sample size, but the NCAA Tournament still usually offers us some insights about the upcoming draft class, so we checked in with some of our our contributors about how their perceptions might have changed throughout the NCAA Tournament.

1. What prospect do you think improved their “draft stock” the most during the NCAA Tournament?

Chris Stone (@cstonehoops): For me personally, it was North Carolina’s Justin Jackson. While others had already jumped on the train, Jackson never really clicked for me until watching him more during the NCAA Tournament. The 6-foot-8 wing has the ability to score in a variety of ways, most notably from beyond the arc now that he’s refined his 3-point shot and in the mid-range with a ridiculous floater. I had quite a few concerns about Jackson’s ability to translate defensively, but he used his length effectively in the tournament. His slighter frame probably makes him more of a two-three rather than three-four combo in the NBA, but that should also amplify the value of his length.

Trevor Magnotti (@IllegalScreens): There’s no question it was Sindarius Thornwell of South Carolina. We didn’t even have him on our Big Board coming into the NCAA Tournament, and he may have solidified himself as an early 2nd-round talent with his performance. Thornwell is a senior scoring guard who added a lethal three-point shot this year, and is excellent at drawing contact on post-ups and drives to the basket. He proved to be an efficient scorer and he has the defensive tools to be a solid NBA defensive wing. If his outside shooting is for real in the long term, he’s a quality 3-and-D option in a draft without many of those.

Andrew Johnson (@countingbaskets): I am tempted to go with Markelle Fultz, simply because Lonzo Ball’s performance against Kentucky probably solidified Fultz as the number one pick. But among people who stepped on the court during the tourney I have to go with Zach Collins, simply because of the opportunity to play and succeed, so far, on a big stage.

Brandon Jefferson (@pengriffey_jr): I don’t know what tournament these other guys were watching, but the big winner was none other than Kentucky’s DeAaron Fox. Fultz and Ball were 1A and 1B in draft discussion all season long and then the Wildcats faced off against UCLA in the Sweet 16. LaVar Ball had annoyed the whole world by this point and then Fox’s 39-point dismantling of the Bruins was the cherry on top of the humble pie everyone’s wanted to shove down LaVar’s mouth since he first opened it. Fox now has a legit chance of going top five and has cemented himself amongst the second tier of prospects behind Fultz and Ball. Fox was often an afterthought on his own team at points throughout the season. However, after bowing out against North Carolina in the Elite Eight, Fox has become the top prospect from this year’s Kentucky team.

2. What prospect, if any, do you think hurt themselves in the NCAA Tournament?

Stone: He was only around for one game, but I think the performance that Creighton’s Justin Patton delivered against Rhode Island really accentuated some of the concerns regarding his game. Patton finished with eight points, seven boards and five fouls while shooting just 3-for-12 from the field in the first round upset. The 7-foot big man was easily the tallest player in the game, but struggled with the physicality of the Rams’ bigs, something that has been a worry for those of us who have been watching him play this season. Patton redshirted his first season at Creighton to build strength and the NCAA Tournament made it clear that he’ll need to add more to battle with more mature NBA players.

Magnotti: I really soured on Josh Hart in Villanova’s loss to Wisconsin. He really showed his physical limitations in that game, because the Badgers were able to just throw Nigel Hayes at him and he couldn’t create looks at all down the stretch. His decision-making wasn’t great, and I already had concerns about his defensive abilities. If he can get shut down with the ball in his hands by NBA length, I don’t know that there’s enough there to really bank on him finding a spot in someone’s rotation.

Johnson: If we can count players that decided to withdraw from the draft, Isaiah Briscoe. Grayson Allen is also an acceptable answer here.

Jefferson: Dillon Brooks is that guy for me. The Oregon Ducks made an unforeseen run to the Final Four and while it takes a team to accomplish that, Brooks’ shine was hidden due to the breakout performances of his teammates Tyler Dorsey and Jordan Bell. When Oregon needed a clutch shot the ball found it’s way into Dorsey’s hands. When the Ducks needed a stop on defense it was Bell that was responsible for walling off the interior. Brooks’ shortcomings were shown in full effect against the Tar Heels. With the length and athleticism of Carolina’s wings (Theo Pinson and Justin Jackson) they were able to stifle him during his team’s biggest game. Brooks is going to be a tweener in the NBA and at this moment his game isn’t developed enough in one particular area to really give him a defined role at the next level.

3. What’s something new that you learned about a prospect, good or bad, during the NCAA Tournament?

Stone: This is where I’ll mention Sindarius Thornwell. Largely through my own fault, I hadn’t watched nearly enough of him this season — if anyone watched South Carolina much before the tournament, they’ll understand why — and it was easy to see his NBA potential during the NCAA Tournament. Thornwell’s performances, though, were basically the norm for him even prior to March. En route to being named the SEC Player of the Year, he averaged 22.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per game during conference play. Through an admitted blind spot of my own, I learned that we should have been higher on Thornwell earlier in the season.

Magnotti: Seeing Zach Collins come through in the Final Four for Gonzaga was the biggest lesson for me. We’ve known all season that he has NBA-level length and his production has been insane, but there’s always been this lingering doubt that Collins is posting these aggressive numbers against less than stellar competition. In the NCAA Tournament, he’s continually showcased that he has the finishing ability and strength to battle with high-level fives. His explosion against South Carolina was one of the primary reasons they won that game. I think he proved he’s a lottery-level talent with this performance.

Jefferson: Justin Jackson is going to be a good player in the NBA. Jackson is the last big recruit (consensus top-15) that UNC was able to reel in before (still pending) academic violations put a damper on their program. However, two seasons in it looked like Jackson was going to be a solid four-year player. He’s dispelled all of that with his play this season. Following his sophomore year he tested the waters and was told that he needed to become a better outside shooter to get a real look in the first round. All he did this season was set a record for most three-pointers made in a single season. At 6’8” he also showed an ability to defend well on the perimeter and use his length to disrupt smaller guards. With a solidify role Jackson is likely to get selected in the back half of the lottery in June.

4. Arguably the most high profile matchup of the tournament came in the Sweet Sixteen when UCLA’s Lonzo Ball faced off with Kentucky’s De’Aaron Fox. What did that game teach you about those two players?

Stone: For some reason UCLA decided to go over screens against Fox in this game, which really highlighted his strengths. Fox is quick getting to the basket and will destroy most college bigs when he gets them one-on-one. It was an embarrassing performance by the Bruins’ defense, but not one that really lent itself to learning anything new about Fox. That said, it was interesting to see Ball struggle to protect the ball against Kentucky’s defense for a second time this season. In the two meetings this season, he tallied six and four turnovers, respectively. That’s a little concerning for a guy whose best attribute is his basketball IQ.

Magnotti: I think the stats lie a little bit with Fox, because I don’t feel like we learned a ton about him from his 39-point explosion. He was dominant at the things we knew he was good at – mid-range pull-ups, fast breaks, and he got to the rim consistently against a porous defense. He still can’t shoot from beyond 18 feet or operate consistently in the halfcourt, which was the issue against UNC. For Ball, I think we got a good view of his limitations, as he struggled with turnovers and couldn’t consistently create chances off the dribble against a good defender. But at the same time, Ball played really well against Fox in their first matchup, so I don’t really think this game moved the needle for me with either guy.

Johnson: I view this mostly as a missed opportunity for Ball. Coming into this game he had some possible first overall pick buzz, but that died down quite a bit afterwards. On the other hand, as noted above, Fox is still a guard with a questionable jumper, an increasingly tough sale in today’s NBA.

Jefferson: As mentioned by Chris and Trevor above, UCLA’s defensive gameplan of opening the lane for Fox confused me too. They let Fox play to his strengths and he killed them all night. While Ball didn’t have a great night he did seem to liven up when the Bruins put him on Malik Monk. Ball really hassled Monk off the ball and his height advantage kept Monk quiet when they were matched up. However, the lasting image I’ll take from that game is Ball limping as he dribbled the ball up the court the final two minutes of the game. He had a moment for the taking, but instead seemed to have his mind on what was to come next for him and tried to prevent suffering an injury.

5. Given the influx of undrafted free agents making their way from the D-League to the NBA, which player — inspired by the NCAA Tournament or not — do you think will likely go undrafted and play his way into the NBA via the D-League next season?

Stone: It feels like there is always room in the NBA for more athletic wings. Guys like Wayne Selden and Troy Williams have both earned call-ups this season while Derrick Jones Jr. went undrafted before ultimately signing with Phoenix. One guy who might follow a similar path is Notre Dame’s V.J. Beachem. He’s a 6-foot-8 wing who averaged 14.5 points per game for the Irish as a senior. Beachem is a career 39.2 percent 3-point shooter over 582 attempts and he averaged exactly one steal and one block per 40 minutes during his four years at Notre Dame. The 22-year old may not be the most aggressive prospect in terms of looking for his own shot, but if he can just space the floor and add value defensively, that should be enough to earn him a chance in the league.

Magnotti: He had a bad 2nd round game against UNC, but my favorite future D-Leaguer in this class is Moses Kingsley of Arkansas. A 6-foot-10 center who is hitting 40 percent from three on the season, Kingsley dominated the Hogs’ first round game against Seton Hall, with 23 points on 13 shots and four blocks. He has the total package for a D-League center: He’s an aggressive rebounder, has great shot-blocking instincts, and his pick-n-pop game is worth developing. He won’t get drafted due to his size, limited upside and athleticism, but he’s the type of guy who always does well in the D-League. If he can hone in his defensive game while shooting well at the D-League level, he’s absolutely a player who could find his way to an NBA roster next year despite limited draft buzz.

Johnson: This could apply to anyone on this UNC team other than Justin Jackson.

Next: 2017 NBA Draft Big Board: Pre-Tournament edition

Jefferson: Xavier Rathan-Mayes out of Florida State. Once thought to be the key to luring Andrew Wiggins to Tallahassee, Rathan-Mayes had a solid career as a Seminole, but has decided to enter the draft early and hired an agent. Rathan-Mayes’ is a score-first guard and at 6’4” he’ll offer size at the point guard position that teams will find valuable. Rathan-Mayes has a microwave-effect in games as he is capable of going on an extended streak by himself (as a freshman he poured in 35 points against the Tar Heels). He seemed unable to find the balance between facilitating and attacking over the three years he was at Florida State, but in today’s positionless NBA having a player capable of scoring at all three levels like Rathan-Mayes will pay off in the long run.