Fantasy Baseball: Consensus Top-25 Prospects
By Gavin Tramps
Evaluating prospects for their impact in fantasy baseball is notoriously difficult. We have combined the opinions of four of the best prospect analyzers in the business.
Prospects are a crucial part of fantasy baseball. In standard mixed leagues, you only need to know about the players that will impact this season. In dynasty leagues, you need to have more of a long-term view.
Each spring, prospect lists appear on almost all real-life and fantasy baseball websites. They all have their own method of evaluating and grading, so how do you know which one works best for you?
We have taken the rankings from four of the most respected authorities on Minor League prospects to create a consensus list of the top-25 prospects.
Prospect-hounds rave about Victor Robles (No. 9) but you can ignore him in single-season leagues, instead, consider stashing Lewis Brinson (No. 19) on your bench. He could be up with the Brewers this year and should make a significant impact in fantasy leagues.
25. Clint Frazier (OF-NYY)
The Yankees’ top outfield prospect was the key piece in the trade that sent Andrew Miller to the Indians. He is a dynamic outfielder with an exciting power/speed combination.
Yankees GM Brian Cashman is a fan and spoke about Frazier in an interview last August:
"Frazier has an electric bat. His bat speed is already legendary. He’s got all the tools –he can run, he can hit, he can hit with power, he can play all three outfield positions. A very exciting, high-energy guy that shows up for the National Anthem in a dirty uniform."
In common with so many other young sluggers, Frazier has too much swing and miss in his game. He struck out 122 times to 48 walks between Double-A and Triple-A last year.
2016 stats
- 463 AB
- 75 R
- 16 HR
- 55 RBI
- 13 SB
- .263 AVG
If Frazier can improve against breaking pitches, expect him to be patrolling one of the outfield corners in New York as early as this summer. He could hit immediately, but there is always the risk that he will be overmatched in his first taste of the highest level.
ETA: 2017
Fantasy impact: Frazier’s promotion to the major leagues is in his control. If he keeps hitting in the minors and continues to improve against offspeed stuff, the Yankees will not want to keep him down. If he hits in the majors, Frazier could be one of the biggest impact bats this year and a favorite for AL Rookie of the Year consideration. Stash him in all formats if you have you have a large enough bench.
24. Michael Kopech (RHP-CWS)
The first rounder from the 2014 draft was part of the package headlined by Yoan Moncada to acquire the services of Chris Sale. With Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito, Kopech forms an impressive trio of power arms picked up by the White Sox during the offseason.
The 20-year-old is a dynamic pitcher who regularly lights up the radar gun to triple-digits. In a start in July 2016, Kopech was clocked at 105 mph, one of the fastest pitches ever recorded in professional baseball. This was even more impressive as he was working as a starter.
Baseball Prospectus is cautiously optimistic with their scouting report:
"When he’s on the mound, Kopech dazzles. He blew High-A hitters away with his fastball and a sharp slider, but he also walked 14% of batters faced and threw more than five innings just three times in 19 starts."
2016 stats
- 56.1 IP
- 2.08 ERA
- 1.10 WHIP
- 13.7 SO/9
Despite his young age, Kopech already has two stains on his reputation. In 2015 he served a 50-game suspension after testing positive for a banned stimulant, and last year he broke his hand in a fight with a teammate. He will need to focus his efforts to prevent joining the long list of talented ball players who have lacked the dedication required to fulfill their potential.
ETA: 2018
Fantasy impact: He could be one of the best starters in the game, but unless he can mix in a third pitch to the blistering fastball and wipeout slider, Kopech could be the White Sox closer of the future. That would be a waste of his talents from a fantasy perspective. Ignore him in single-season formats, but he should be highly-prized in dynasty leagues.
23. Josh Bell (1B-PIT)
The second round pick from the 2011 draft announced his arrival in the major leagues by launching a pinch-hit grand slam out of PNC Park against the Cubs in July.
The 24-year-old slashed .273/.368/.406 in 128 at-bats in the majors last year, which included the remarkable statistic of more walks than strikeouts. Few prospects can claim such a feat in their first taste of Major League action.
In their scouting report, MLB Pipeline noted:
"Bell continued to show the ability to be a plus hitter, both in Triple-A and the big leagues. When facing a shift as a left-handed hitter, he was able to poke balls the other way to beat the shift with regularity. He draws walks and doesn’t rack up a ton of strikeouts, all while his power continued to improve."
Knee surgery affected his preseason, delaying his start to Spring Training. As such, he is underrated going into the season, despite being the Pirates’ first baseman. He had an ADP of 325 as the 32nd first baseman drafted.
2016 stats
- 549 AB
- 75 R
- 17 HR,
- 79 RBI
- 3 SB
- .290 AVG
His power is improving, and he hit a career-high 17 home runs in 2016. Physically he profiles as a slugger, but until the potential of his power develops, the upside is Eric Hosmer or Brandon Belt.
Check out the article on Bell’s sleeper potential for fantasy leagues in 2017.
ETA: 2017 (starting first baseman for the Pirates)
Fantasy impact: Although Bell may never develop sufficient power to be your first baseman, he will be an excellent corner infielder. His mature approach at the plate will help you in AVG and OBP categories, as well as in points leagues. Bell is one of the few players on this consensus list with mixed league value this season.
22. Ozzie Albies (2B-ATL)
The switch-hitter from Curacao is the Braves’ best prospect in the minors. An excellent shortstop, Albies has been shifted to second base with Dansby Swanson installed as the Braves’ shortstop of the future.
Having excelled with .858 OPS in half a season in Double-A last year, Albies jumped to Triple-A at the age of just 19-years-old.
MLB Pipeline noted in their scouting report:
"At the plate, the switch-hitter has shown an ability to hit for average from both sides of the plate, even if his right-handed swing is a touch better. Albies has plus speed that works on the basepaths, as do his instincts and high energy style of play."
2016 stats
- 552 AB
- 83 R
- 6 HR
- 53 RBI
- 30 SB
- .292 AVG
Albies is excellent defensively and will form an impressive double-play team with Dansby Swanson, maybe as early as midseason. Although the Braves acquired Brandon Phillips to play second base, they are insistent that Albies will not be blocked and when he is ready, he will be up.
A fractured elbow caused Albies to miss the Arizona Fall League, and he only had 17 at-bats in Spring Training. Braves GM John Coppolella said he wants Albies “to tell us when he is ready, and he needs to play, be completely healthy, and dominate Triple-A.”
ETA: 2017
Fantasy impact: The acquisition of Phillips means there is no rush to bring Albies up to the majors, so he will be allowed time to develop. Whether the promotion is midseason or in September will be determined by Albies’ production in Triple-A. When he does arrive, he will make an immediate impact, especially in the stolen bases category. Stash him on your bench if you can but be prepared for no fantasy production this season.
21. Francis Martes (RHP-HOU)
The right-hander appeared from nowhere (or from the depths of the Marlins’ farm system in the Jarred Cosart deal to be exact) to become one of the most exciting pitchers on the brink of the majors.
MLB Pipeline suggests comparisons with Lance McCullers, although teammate George Springer said Martes reminded him of the Yankees’ Michael Pineda.
Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reported the most commonly heard comparison for Martes is the Giants’ Johnny Cueto because of their similar builds and plus fastballs.
In their Essential Guide, Baseball Prospectus remarked about the Astros’ prospect:
"Martes has been a quick riser, reaching Double-A at just age 19 in 2015. In a full crack at the Texas League in 2016, Martes sure didn’t look like he was more than four years younger than his average opponent. He struck out over a batter per inning."
Before Martes is anointed a future Cy Young Award winner, he will need to improve his breaking pitches; otherwise, he might just become a lights-out, two-pitch bullpen arm.
2016 stats
- 125.1 IP
- 3.30 ERA
- 1.21 WHIP
- 9.4 SO/9
The Astros will be contenders in 2017, but their rotation looks fragile. Charlie Morton, Mike Fiers and Joe Musgrove, occupy the three spots below Dallas Keuchel and the often-injured Lance McCullers. If Martes can replicate his 2016 Double-A form when he makes the jump to Triple-A in April, then he will only be an injury away from joining the Major League rotation.
ETA: 2017
Fantasy impact: The Astros are division favorites and undoubtedly will need to reinforce their rotation this season. It looks inevitable that Martes will make an impact in fantasy baseball in 2017. Stash him if you can. Keep your eyes on Martes. He could be very special.
20. Willy Adames (SS-TB)
The Rays acquired Adames in the trade deadline deal that sent David Price to the Tigers in 2014. He is widely regarded as having good makeup, or “good intangibles” as Tampa Bay farm director Mitch Lukevics put it.
Adames is the Rays’ top prospect and has the potential to be a leader of the team. The face of the franchise.
In their scouting report, Baseball America noted:
"His power has steadily developed as he’s matured physically, and in 2016 he showed the ability to drive the ball out to the opposite field in game situations."
Adames has good plate discipline and likes to take a walk, as highlighted by 13 BB% in the minors last season. Whether he will hit enough in the majors is the big question surrounding him. If he fulfills his potential, Adames could eventually develop into a 20 home run, 20 stolen base player.
2016 stats
- 486 AB
- 89 R
- 11 HR
- 57 RBI
- 13 SB
- .274 AVG
The Rays love to accumulate young infielders (Daniel Robertson, Tim Beckham, Brad Miller and Matt Duffy, and that is just the Major League roster). As with many young shortstops, there is the risk that Adames will outgrow the position and his limited power potential will be less enticing from the hot corner.
ETA: 2018
Fantasy impact: Shortstops are often more highly prized in the real world than fantasy, and that could be the situation with Adames. He has the tools to be a top-5 shortstop at his peak, but it is debatable whether he has the power potential to be a top-5 fantasy shortstop. It is unlikely that he will reach the majors this season, so he is only of interest in keeper and dynasty formats.
19. Lewis Brinson (OF-MIL)
The center fielder was the headline name in the package sent to the Brewers to secure the services of catcher Jonathan Lucroy last season. He offers power, speed and elite defense, yet is surprisingly underrated, coming in at No.19 on this consensus list.
Tom Flanagan, the Brewers farm director, enthused about their top prospect:
"Since Lewis came over in last year’s trade deadline deal with Texas, all he has done is hit. He has continued that this spring as he has worked to enhance his game. He’s a five-tool player and brings a business-like approach to the park every day."
Brinson slumped at the start of last season but exploded after the move to the Brewers with four home runs, four stolen bases and a .382/.387/.618 slash line in 23 games. He will start the season in the minors but is expected to make a significant impact in the fantasy baseball world.
2016 stats
- 393 AB
- 60 R
- 15 HR
- 60 RBI
- 15 SB
- .270 AVG
The timetable for Brinson’s promotion is out of his control. It is dependent upon the performances of Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana.
Broxton was the Brewers’ center fielder on Opening Day and despite the love he gets as a sleeper in fantasy circles, his 36% strikeout rate is unsustainable in the majors.
Santana strikes out almost as frequently as Broxton. He is an inferior fielder and has no speed on the base paths. Early season struggles for either will open the door to playing time for Brinson.
ETA: 2017
Fantasy impact: Brinson has the potential to be a fantasy superstar. He is ready for the majors but if Broxton, Santana and new signing Eric Thames all hit, Brinson will be kept in the minors to play every day. If you can, stash Brinson on your bench in mixed leagues. He could be sensational. Obviously, he needs to be owned in all dynasty formats.
18. Cody Bellinger (1B-LAD)
The Dodgers took Bellinger in the fourth round of the 2013 draft, and he looks like a steal. He is a powerful first baseman with elite defensive skills and a clear path to everyday playing time when Adrian Gonzalez becomes a free agent in 2019.
Baseball America notes in their scouting report:
"While most first base prospects tend to be one-dimensional sluggers, Cody is a dynamic all-around player in both the batter’s box and with his glove. Bellinger has a balanced left-handed swing with plus bat speed, good leverage and use of his lower half, generating the potential to hit 30 home runs."
The left-hander exploded onto the scene with 30 home runs and 103 RBI in High-A in 2015 before slashing .271/.365/.507 with 26 home runs across Double-A and Triple-A last year.
An attention-grabbing .981 OPS helped Bellinger secure a spot on the Top Prospects team in the Arizona Fall League.
2016 stats
- 410 AB
- 66 R
- 26 HR
- 71 RBI
- 8 SB
- .271 AVG
He is the top-ranked first baseman in all four of the prospect lists. The 21-year-old was highly sought after in offseason trade discussions, but unlike pitcher Jose De Leon, the Dodgers were unwilling to deal Bellinger.
ETA: 2017
Fantasy impact: Even in single season mixed-leagues, Bellinger could have value, especially if age catches up to the veteran Gonzalez. Bellinger saw playing time in the outfield in Spring Training, although the Dodgers have a plethora of outfielders. They are in win-now mode, so will not be shy about benching a slumping Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig or Andrew Toles. Bellinger’s offensive production in the Cactus League was disappointing, but he remains a must-own player in dynasty leagues. He could be a top-5 first baseman in 2020.
17. Anderson Espinoza (RHP-SD)
The right-hander is one of the most devastating pitchers in the minor leagues, and amazingly, he has only just turned 19-years-old. Espinoza moved from Boston to San Diego at the trade deadline, with Drew Pomeranz heading in the other direction.
The Boston Red Sox are similar to the most exciting owner in your dynasty league. They always have a constant supply of highly-rated prospects, but instead of hoarding them indefinitely, they are happy to spend their prospect-currency freely.
Scouts offer rave reviews on Espinoza, with MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis drawing comparisons to Pedro Martinez. Callis points to a mid-90s fastball which can hit triple-digits and long fingers which help manipulate the ball, giving it late life.
MLB Pipeline ranked Espinoza the lowest out the four prospect evaluators used for this consensus list, but their scouting report is still very encouraging:
"Though he may be small in stature, there’s nothing diminutive about Espinoza’s stuff. His smooth delivery and lightning-quick arm produce a heater that can touch triple digits. Espinoza’s curveball shows plus potential, while his changeup, thrown with fastball-like arm action as well as considerable sink, gives the teenager a true chance for three plus pitches."
The Padres enter the 2017 season with a truly dreadful rotation of Jhoulys Chacin, Clayton Richard, Jered Weaver, Trevor Cahill and Luis Perdomo. Espinoza and the Padres’ three other highly-prized pitching prospects, will not debut at Petco Park for several years.
2016 stats
- 108.1 IP
- 4.49 ERA
- 1.39 WHIP
- 8.3 SO/9
For all the hype, Espinoza is a slight-framed, 6-foot Venezuelan at least three years away from the Major Leagues. Too many starting pitcher prospects bust to make any guarantees as to his future value in fantasy.
ETA: 2019
Fantasy impact: Don’t draft him in mixed leagues this season. That is probably the only certainty regarding Espinoza in fantasy. It is players like Espinoza that makes dynasty leagues so exciting. Dream big and patient but be prepared for disappointment. There is more likelihood that he will become just another bullpen arm than the next Pedro Martinez.
16. Manuel Margot (OF-SD)
The 22-year-old Dominican is the outstanding center fielder that the Padres received in exchange for Craig Kimbrel in 2016. Margot slashed .304/.351/.426 last year in Triple-A with an 11.3 strikeout rate, impressively low for a player experiencing the PCL for the first time.
The MLB Pipeline scouting report noted:
"Margot’s quick bat and outstanding hand-eye coordination help him to generate hard contact to all fields from the right side of the plate, and his improving feel for managing the strike zone suggests he’ll reach his ceiling of a plus hitter."
The speedster topped the Dominican Winter League with 14 stolen bases and has three seasons of at least 30 stolen bases to his name. Speed is in such short supply in fantasy that prospects with elite stolen base potential have extra value. Margot was featured in our article detailing fantasy hitting prospects for deep leagues
2016 stats
- 554 AB
- 102 R
- 6 HR
- 58 RBI
- 32 SB
- .300 AVG
The Dominican made the Padres’ Opening Day roster. With Alex Dickerson starting on the DL, Margot will be vying for playing time with Travis Jankowski (another elite defensive center fielder) and Jabari Blash, the powerful, hit-or-miss slugger.
If Margot hits, he will stay up. If he stays up, he will steal bases.
ETA: 2017 (starting center fielder for the Padres)
Fantasy impact: Regardless of whether Margot plays left field or center field, or loses playing time in a platoon, he will make an impact in fantasy this season. Not only will he steal bases, but hitting near the top of the Padres’ order, he should also score a decent number of runs.
15. Brendan Rodgers (SS-COL)
The 20-year-old was taken as the third overall pick by the Rockies in the 2015 draft. He is a five-tool player, with the potential to be a top-5 shortstop. Unsurprisingly the fantasy world hopes he emulates former Rockies’ All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.
Rodgers is undoubtedly the Rockies’ shortstop of the future although in their scouting report Baseball America noted that his athleticism and power potential could fit anywhere in the infield:
"He has elite bat speed and good feel for the bat head, and he punished fastballs before SAL pitchers adjusted and fed him a steady diet of offspeed stuff. He has a polished approach for such a young hitter with solid plate discipline."
With the emergence of Corey Seager, Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor, shortstop is not the weak position that it used to be. Such is the strength in depth of the shortstop position that Rodgers only ranks fifth on this consensus list of prospects.
2016 stats
- 442 AB
- 73 R
- 19 HR
- 73 RBI
- 6 SB
- .281 AVG
The Rockies are set at shortstop with Trevor Story for the foreseeable future, so there is no need to rush Rodgers’ development.
ETA: 2019
Fantasy impact: An elite hitting prospect playing his home games at Coors Field should be high on everyone’s wish list. Rodgers won’t reach the majors for a few years and might have shifted to second base by the time he is Major League ready, but he has the potential to be very special. Ignore him in single-year formats, but Rodgers should be owned in all keeper/dynasty leagues.
14. Rafael Devers (3B-BOS)
The Red Sox signed Devers for $1.5 million as a 16-year-old from the Dominican Republic. Fantasy owners who made a similar long-term investment will not have to wait much longer.
The 20-year-old hit 32 doubles, eight triples and 11 home runs with 18 stolen bases in High-A last season, despite being one of the youngest players in the Carolina League.
MLB Pipeline ranks him as the top third base prospect in the game, and posted a glowing write up:
"Devers’ signature tool is his prodigious power to all fields, the product of impressive bat speed and strength. He’s more than just a slugger, however, which he proved yet again with his ability to make adjustments in High-A."
Devers will become the Red Sox’ top prospect when Andrew Benintendi loses his rookie status.
2016 stats
- 503 AB
- 64 R
- 11 HR
- 71 RBI
- 18 SB
- .282 AVG
Unless Pablo Sandoval makes a miraculous return to his prime, the Red Sox have a gaping void at third base. They were happy to part with Yoan Moncada and Travis Shaw, leaving the pathway open for Devers as early as next season.
ETA: 2018
Fantasy impact: A slugger with power to all fields, Devers will become a fan favorite when he launches home runs onto the Green Monster. It would not be surprising to see Devers become a perennial 30 home run hitter as he progresses from third base to first base and eventually to DH during his career. The Red Sox won’t rush him, but they will be contenders in 2017. If Sandoval slumps, the third base depth chart has few alternatives, so Devers might get the call earlier than anticipated.
13. Nick Senzel (3B-CIN)
The second overall pick from the 2016 draft is on the fast track to the major leagues. He can hit for power and average, with impressive patience at the plate which will help his rapid progression.
MLB Pipeline’s produced the following scouting report on the Reds’ top prospect:
"The right-handed hitter has both strength and bat speed to go along with an advanced approach at the plate. He uses all fields and draws walks, which should help him continue to hit for both average and power. His speed plays up thanks to outstanding instincts which allow him to be a base stealing threat."
The 21-year-old walked 32 times to 49 strikeouts in High-A. With Senzel, Jesse Winker and Phillip Ervin, the Reds are accumulating mature, patient hitters to follow the example set by Joey Votto.
2016 stats
- 243 AB
- 41 R
- 7 HR
- 40 RBI
- 18 SB
- .305 AVG
He could be the first from the 2016 draft class to reach the majors, although the timetable will be dictated by the Reds’ rebuilding plans. Current third baseman Eugenio Suarez was a below-average contributor last season, in fact, his 92 wRC+ ranked 20th among qualified third basemen.
ETA: 2018
Fantasy impact: It is possible that Senzel will be pushed to the major leagues this season, but the likelihood is a 2018 debut. Don’t stash him in single-season, mixed leagues but make sure he is owned in all keeper and dynasty formats. Power, speed, average, make-up, plate patience. He sounds like a future fantasy superstar.
12. Tyler Glasnow (RHP-PIT)
The Pirates nabbed the 6-foot-8 right-hander in the fifth round of the 2011 draft. He is a hard-throwing strikeout ace with erratic control, as you might expect from a pitcher trying to repeat the delivery from such a large frame.
Baseball Prospectus summed up Tyler Glasnow well:
"When you watch Glasnow pitch, you can’t help but come away both optimistic and frustrated. It’s clear that Glasnow is capable of utter dominance."
The fantasy community’s interest in Glasnow has waned. This often happens after a highly-rated prospect’s eagerly anticipated debut stretch, ends with understandably disappointing results. The 23-year-old made seven appearances in the majors in 2016. The four as a starter resulted in a 4.94 ERA.
2016 stats
- 140 IP
- 2.31 ERA
- 1.23 WHIP
- 10.80 SO/9
Despite being a 22-year-old pitching in Triple-A, Glasnow recorded 11.6 SO/9 last season and allowed just 23 earned runs in over 110 innings. In the minor leagues, his overpowering fastball gets him out of the trouble created by his career 5.0 BB/9. He will not get away with allowing so many base runners in the majors.
ETA: 2017
Fantasy impact: Glasnow was the 95th starting pitcher off the board in this year’s drafts, demonstrating the fickle nature of fantasy baseball. He was taken behind Anthony DeSclafani, Tyson Ross and Steven Wright, who all started the season on the DL. Glasnow offers ace strikeout potential for a competitive team. His value will be limited until he improves his command but if/when that happens, he could be a top-10 starter. Glasnow is a prime buy-low candidate for all dynasty formats.
11. Lucas Giolito (RHP-CWS)
The former first round pick from the 2013 draft was the No.1 pitching prospect at the start of 2016, causing Mike Rosenbaum of MLB.com to enthuse “At age 21, Giolito arguably has the best fastball, curveball and control of any pitcher on the Top 100 Prospects list”.
Giolito failed to deliver in his first taste of the majors and suffered an ego bump as part of a package that was shipped off from Washington to secure the services of Adam Eaton.
His fantasy value has probably never been as low as it is right now.
Scouts tend to be a little more circumspect than fantasy baseball owners, as highlighted by the MLB Pipeline scouting report:
"When he’s on, Giolito shows stuff that most pitchers can only dream of. He can sit at 95-98 mph and crack triple digits with his fastball — which also features running life and downhill plane that make it even better — snap off power curveballs that are just as nasty and mix in a third plus pitch with his sinking changeup."
There are parallels with Tyler Glasnow, in that Giolito was one of the hottest commodities in fantasy baseball before his Major League debut, and then after 20-odd disappointing innings, he was quickly labeled a flop.
2016 stats
- 136.2 IP
- 3.56 ERA
- 1.36 WHIP
- 8.36 SO/9
Giolito did not make the White Sox’ Opening Day roster, and given the rebuilding nature of the South Siders, it is unclear whether he will feature in the majors this season or stay in the minors to rediscover his touch.
ETA: 2017
Fantasy impact: Buy, buy, buy. Giolito might only have limited fantasy value in 2017, but his long-term outlook is still very promising. Take advantage of the market’s indifference towards him and scoop him up for your dynasty team.
10. Eloy Jimenez (OF-CHC)
Another superstar-in-waiting from the Cubs’ production line. Jimenez signed a big-money deal as the top-rated international prospect in 2013.
He could easily be the top prospect in the game going into the 2018 season, especially based on the scouting report by Baseball America:
"Jimenez was signed for his bat and his body—one club official admiringly called him “a physical animal”—and has started to deliver. His body evokes comparisons with former Cub Jorge Soler and Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, but he’s more than a power-first hitter."
The 20-year-old slashed .329/.369/.532 with 40 doubles and 14 home runs in 432 at-bats in the Midwest League last season. He has an all-or-nothing approach, striking out 20.3% of the time with a walk rate of 5.4%.
2016 stats
- 432 AB
- 65 R
- 14 HR
- 81 RBI
- 8 SB
- .329 AVG
Even if he does not reduce the swing and miss in his games, it would not be surprising to see Jimenez develop into a Major League slugger hitting 30 home runs each year.
ETA: 2019
Fantasy impact: There is no immediate need for the Cubs to rush Jimenez’ development, so he is unlikely to reach the majors until 2019. He is a must-own player in all dynasty formats, with a high floor as a top-50 outfielder and a ceiling as the MVP
9. Victor Robles (OF-WAS)
Signed out of the Dominican Republic at 19-years-old, Robles is the youngest member of the consensus top-10.
Robles offers elite defense and an impressive hit tool. He slashed .305/.405/.459 in 65 games in the South Atlantic League before holding his own with a .741 OPS as one of the youngest players in the High-A Carolina League.
Baseball America’s scouting report suggests Robles could reach in the majors in 2018 although 2019 might be more realistic:
"Robles is an excellent athlete with true five-tool potential. He is advanced for his age, displaying a good feel for hitting. He has strong, quick hands that help him to produce impressive bat speed. Presently, his power results mostly in hard line drives to the gaps, but as he physically matures, those balls should start going over the fence."
2016 stats
- 421 AB
- 75 R
- 9 HR
- 42 RBI
- 37 SB
- .280 AVG
Despite being a few years away from Major League action, he enthralls scouts and fantasy players alike with true five-tool potential.
ETA: 2019
Fantasy impact: Young, five-tool players over-excite fantasy player. Victor Robles is not Mike Trout. He might not even be Byron Buxton. The prospect community is in love with his potential, and he could be the number one prospect at the start of next season.
8. Alex Reyes (RHP-STL)
The flamethrower made the unusual decision to relocate from New Jersey to live with his grandmother in the Dominican Republic in an attempt to circumvent the First Year Player Draft by signing as an international free agent. Reyes joined the Cardinals and shot up prospect lists.
Unfortunately just as he was ready to unleash his high-90s fastball on the Major League for a whole season, Reyes succumbed to a tear in the dreaded ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow. He will miss the entire 2017 season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Before the injury, MLB Pipeline enthused about Reyes in their scouting report:
"Reyes is arguably the best pitching prospect in the game, with his combination of elite stuff and missing bats all pointing to a future as a frontline starter. His fastball sits in the mid-to-upper-90s comfortably and he can reach back for more."
He had looked the real deal when he reached the majors in 2016, striking out 52 over 46 innings and allowing just eight earned runs.
2016 stats
- 111.1 IP
- 3.56 ERA
- 1.36 WHIP
- 11.72 SO/9
If he comes back healthy, Reyes is expected to form a potent one-two with Carlos Martinez. He will likely be ready for Spring Training 2018, but do not be surprised if it takes the right-hander until after the All-Star break to become a fantasy relevant pitcher.
ETA: 2018
Fantasy impact: There is too much risk attached to young pitchers to burn a bench spot in shallow leagues or ones with less than ten keepers. It could be 18 months before Reyes has mixed league value. Of course in dynasty formats, he should be kept. His brief stint in the majors showed the exciting potential of possibly the best pitcher in the game in five years time.
7. Gleyber Torres (SS-NYY)
The 20-year-old Venezuelan was the price paid by the Cubs for 42.1 regular and postseason innings from Aroldis Chapman. Torres became the Yankees’ top prospect when he was traded at the deadline last season.
Torres is an exceptional defensive shortstop with 20 home run and 20 stolen base potential.
Baseball America’s scouting report concludes:
"What makes Torres special, however, is his offensive potential. At just 19 years old he already has excellent pitch recognition skills and has shown the ability to sort through breaking pitches in order to get to the fastball he desires. He’s an excellent bet to stay at shortstop because of his soft, quick hands and smooth actions around the bag."
2016 stats
- 478 AB
- 81 R
- 11 HR
- 66 RBI
- 21 SB
- .270 AVG
Torres became the youngest MVP of the Arizona Fall League, slashing .403/.513/.645 in 18 games. He was sent to the minors to start 2017, despite hitting .448 in Spring Training and the injury to Yankees’ starting shortstop Didi Gregorius.
ETA: 2018
Fantasy impact: An exciting shortstop in New York who can run, hit and field. Parallels will undoubtedly be made between Torres and Derek Jeter. Torres looks like the best infielder within the Yankees’ organization so he could be up this season if they are contenders. He is yet to play above High-A, so the likelihood is that he will be left to develop in the minors this year. The everyday job at shortstop could be his in 2018.
6. J.P. Crawford (SS-PHI)
The first round pick from the 2013 draft has developed a reputation as a glove-first, bat-second shortstop. The 22-year-old is the top prospect in the Phillies’ organization.
Despite Freddy Galvis’ unexpected 20 home run season, he was still a -18.7 player according to Fangraphs offensive WAR. The Phillies are in desperate need of an upgrade at shortstop.
Crawford is a slick fielder with speed and arm strength, but he will need to hit if he is to excite the fantasy baseball world.
In the days before Corey Seager, Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor, J.P. Crawford would have been a far more exciting fantasy shortstop, but now the bar has been raised. He looks to have All-Star caliber defensive skills, but the bat is very much work-in-progress. There is a risk that the power may never come.
2016 stats
- 472 AB
- 63 R
- 7 HR
- 43 RBI
- 12 SB
- .250 AVG
Crawford has good plate discipline, with 135 walks to 134 strikeouts over the last two years. He stole 24 bases in 2014, but speed is not a significant aspect of his game, with only 12 in each of the last two years.
If Crawford develops power, he could be a double-digit home run and stolen base threat with a .290 batting average. Those skills hitting at the top of a rebuilding Phillies lineup, give you a very enticing fantasy player.
ETA: 2018
Fantasy impact: Similarities can be made with Francisco Lindor, a glove-first shortstop who was expected to be far better in real life than fantasy. Lindor shocked everyone with his power and hitting skills. If that is how it transpires for Crawford, he will be an excellent asset in fantasy. Until he hits for power, he is probably the player with the lowest fantasy ceiling on this consensus list.
5. Yoan Moncada (2B/3B-CWS)
The blockbuster deal of the offseason sent one of the best hitting prospects to Chicago with ace lefty Chris Sale going to Boston. Moncada was signed in 2015 by the Red Sox for a record-breaking $63 million.
The 21-year-old slashed .317/.391/.683 in Spring Training with three home runs, giving the White Sox’ Front Office a glimpse of the power they can expect in the not too distant future.
In their Essential Guide to the 2017 season, Baseball Prospectus offered a cautious note:
"Moncada could be the best prospect in baseball, but he has two glaring flaws; he’s not perfect and he’s already been paid a lot of money."
On a more positive note, Moncada stole 45 bases with .918 OPS across two levels of the minors last season. A powerful hitter with 40 stolen base potential could translate into a first round pick in fantasy in a couple of years.
2016 stats
- 472 AB
- 109 R
- 17 HR
- 69 RBI
- 47 SB
- .290 AVG
Two aspects work against Moncada gaining an early promotion to become the White Sox’ everyday second baseman. Firstly, Chicago will not be competitive this season, so perhaps they will look to delay starting Moncada’s service clock. Secondly, the switch-hitter has a strikeout problem. 30.1 K% in Double-A and 60 K% in his cup of coffee in the majors. He needs to address this before making the step up to the major leagues.
Moncada has 94 stolen bases in 187 games across all levels, prompting Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline to describe him as “Robinson Cano with more speed.” That sounds like the number one player in fantasy.
ETA: 2018
Fantasy impact: He could be up by midseason, and he could hit like Gary Sanchez did from day one in the majors. However, there is no guarantee that he will reach the major leagues this year. Leave him on waivers in shallow mixed leagues or stash him if you have enough bench spots. Moncada had an ADP of 245, around the same part of the draft as everyday players Marcus Semien and Brandon Drury. It goes without saying that he is a must-own in keeper and dynasty formats.
4. Austin Meadows (OF-PIT)
The stereotypical toolsy first round pick from the 2013 draft is ready for the major leagues. He just needs an opening.
2016 was a memorable year for the outfielder. He slashed .311/.365/.611 in Double-A before hitting six home runs with .757 OPS in his first taste of Triple-A. Plus he landed on the DL twice, giving fuel to the argument that he is an injury-prone player.
MLB Pipeline noted in their scouting report:
"The main reason Meadows has been able to move so quickly despite the interruptions has been his advanced approach at the plate and his innate ability to hit for average regardless of time away. He has a very smooth left-handed swing, one that has largely featured a hit-first approach, though the power started to show up a bit more in 2016."
Meadows walked more than 10% of the time in Triple-A. Patience at the plate is a trait that will serve him well in the jump to the majors.
2016 stats
- 308 AB
- 49 R
- 12 HR
- 47 RBI
- 17 SB
- .266 AVG
The Pirates arguably have the best outfield trio in the game. Meadows needs an injury to Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco or Andrew McCutchen to open the door for him to see early-season at-bats. The other option is a McCutchen trade, which will be dependent on whether the Pirates are still in contention in July.
When the 21-year-old steps up to the majors, expect Meadows to be an annual 20/20 candidate while providing above-average defense in center field.
ETA: 2017
Fantasy impact: 2017 will be an interesting season for Meadows. He is one injury away from everyday at-bats and on the path to Rookie of the Year consideration, but equally, he might spend the whole season in Triple-A. The left-hander will be available on waivers in mixed leagues so grab him at the first report of injury news from Pittsburgh.
3. Amed Rosario (SS-NYM)
The Dominican was a big money signing by the Mets in 2012 and looks to be one of the most exciting players in the minors.
He slashed .324/.374/.459 in the minors last season with a decent walk rate, but there was a spike in his strikeout rate to 21.5% when he reached Double-A. He was only 20-years-old for the entire season, so youthful exuberance can explain some of this.
The MLB Pipeline scouting report is very enthusiastic about the 21-year-old:
"Always holding his own at every level, Rosario dominated across two stops in 2016 offensively. He’s always had very good contact skills and extra-base power has started to show up more consistently as he drew more walks and continued to fill out his ultra-athletic and projectable frame."
2016 stats
- 479 AB
- 65 R
- 5 HR
- 71 RBI
- 19 SB
- .324 AVG
Rosario hit 24 doubles and 13 triples in the minors last year, giving the expectation of double-digit home runs in the future.
ETA: 2018
Fantasy impact: Rosario could make an impact as early as this season but Asdrubal Cabrera was nearly a three-win player last year, and the Mets have a club option for 2018. Unless injuries hit and their season is on the line, Rosario will be allowed to develop in the minors. Monitor but don’t invest in single-season leagues. He could be the No.1 prospect at the start of next season, so spend heavily to acquire Rosario in dynasty formats.
2. Dansby Swanson (SS-ATL)
The former first-round pick made his Major League debut in 2016 after less than 500 at-bats in the minors.His mature attitude and face-of-the-franchise potential encouraged the Braves to shift fellow star prospect Ozzie Albies over to second base. Swanson has quickly established himself as the Braves’ shortstop now and of the future.
His mature attitude and face-of-the-franchise potential encouraged the Braves to shift fellow star prospect Ozzie Albies over to second base. Swanson has quickly established himself as the Braves’ shortstop now and of the future.
Baseball America notes his “cerebral approach” in the scouting report:
"An ideal No. 2 hitter, Swanson makes hard and consistent contact with his advanced approach at the plate. His patience and feel for the strike zone allow him to work counts and pile up walks."
Although not possessing overwhelming power, the 23-year-old hits to all fields and should grow into 20 home runs. Expect him to swipe 20 bags as early as this season, especially if hits near the top of the Braves’ lineup. Swanson appeared in our article detailing the top hitting prospects to impact fantasy leagues in 2017.
2016 stats
- 540 AB
- 88 R
- 12 HR
- 72 RBI
- 16 SB
- .281 AVG
Few players can hit over .300 while striking out more than 20% of the time. Very special talents Mike Trout, J.D. Martinez and Freddie Freeman, all did it last season, but so too did Sandy Leon, David Dahl and Swanson.
Skeptics will point to a BABIP above .380 for the latter three being unsustainable and a drop in batting average is inevitable until Swanson’s can cut down strikeouts.
ETA: 2017 (starting shortstop for the Braves)
Fantasy impact: Don’t overpay for the name in single-season leagues. His 171 ADP as the 17th shortstop off the board, puts him ahead of home run hitters Brad Miller, Jedd Gyorko and Marcus Semien. That is a lot of counting stats to sacrifice in the hope of a high batting average. If his average drops and he fails to develop power, similar shortstops options are available 200 picks later.
Invest in dynasty formats and look to buy-low if he gets off to a sluggish start. He is the fantasy shortstop for the long game.
1. Andrew Benintendi (OF-BOS)
After 570 at-bats in the minors, the seventh overall pick from the 2015 draft made his Major League debut with the Red Sox. Benintendi has a mature approach at the plate, hitting .312 AVG in the minors with more walks than strikeouts.
J.J. Cooper of Baseball America was unequivocal with his optimism in the week of Benintendi’s debut:
"Long-term, he’s the rare hitter who has a chance to provide a near .300 average with high on-base percentages and above-average power (15-20 home runs) while stealing 10 bags a year. He’s one of the best hitting prospects in the game."
Benintendi lived up to the hype, slashing .324/.365/.485 in his first 21 games in the majors. He sprained his knee, in an incident that looked more severe, forcing him to miss the next 19 games.
He hit .243 (81 points lower) when he returned for the final 13 games. Bizarrely this helps fantasy owners as it dragged his 2017 batting average to .295. Imagine how much hype there would be surrounding the 22-year-old if he had finished the year hitting .324.
2016 stats
- 477 AB
- 86 R
- 11 HR
- 90 RBI
- 17 SB
- .308 AVG
The AL Rookie of the Year favorite is more of a hitter rather than a slugger, so he is more likely to hit .300 before he hits 20 home runs. Benintendi has doubles power with elite on-base skills. He has the potential to develop into a 20/20 player with a .300 batting average. A feat only achieved last season by Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve and Jean Segura.
ETA: 2017 (starting left fielder for the Red Sox)
Fantasy impact: The left-hander had an ADP of 113, but it seems almost inevitable that he will finish as a top-100 player this year. Benintendi is expected to be the everyday left fielder, hitting towards the top of the lineup, maybe second between Dustin Pedroia and Mookie Betts.
Judging by his Opening Day home run, Benintendi will be an important contributor in all formats of fantasy this year, but the walks and doubles will give even more value in points leagues.
Prospects are the lifeblood of fantasy baseball. Many leagues were won last year, thanks to the contributions of Corey Seager and Trea Turner.
The experts’ consensus opinions do not always guarantee success. The jury is still out on former number one prospects Jurickson Profar and Byron Buxton. The resources that Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN and MLB invest in evaluating prospects, mean that we, the fantasy baseball community, would be foolish to ignore when they concur.