Khris Middleton is the perfect complement to Giannis Antetokounmpo
Rather than slipping in the standings following Jabari Parker’s injury this season, the Bucks have gotten better. They’ve gone from being in the No. 10 spot in the Eastern Conference with a 29-33 record to holding the No. 5 seed with a 40-37 record within the last month. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been outstanding as usual during that stretch — 23.4 points, 9.0 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.7 blocks per game — but lot of their success comes with the return of Khris Middleton, who missed the opening 50 games of the season after tearing his hamstring completely off the bone in September.
With Middleton on the court, the Bucks average 112.2 points per 100 possessions this season. That’s comparable to the best offensive teams in the NBA such as the Warriors (113.2), Rockets (112.0) and Cavaliers (111.0). They’re also much better defensively with him on the court, holding teams to 105.8 points per 100 possessions which would put them just outside the top-10 in defensive efficiency. His net differential of 6.4 points per 100 possessions is the highest on the team by a rather decent margin.
The most obvious reason Middleton makes the Bucks a better team is his perimeter shooting. Think about what we’ve see from James Harden this season. The reason Harden is so difficult to stop is because he’s capable of creating his own shot wherever he is on the court, in addition to being able to find open teammates when the defense collapses. Antetokounmpo is similar in many ways even though he relies on getting to the basket more than Harden. So it makes sense that he’d work well playing alongside one of the more accurate 3-point shooters in the NBA.
Read More: This funky pick-and-roll shows how smart the Warriors are
Just take a look at the following video to get an idea of how Middleton fits into that equation. Notice how Ian Clark gravitates closer and closer to Antetokounmpo the longer he holds the ball. Once Clark takes a step too close, Antetokounmpo kicks the ball out to Middleton at the top of the perimeter for a catch-and-shoot 3-pointer. As simple as it may seem, being able to make that shot consistently makes it harder for defenders to help off of their assignment to double Antetokounmpo in the half court.
Here’s another example. Antetokounmpo gets the ball in transition, where he scores nearly a quarter of his points at a rate of 1.29 points per possession, and Middleton immediately spaces the floor for him by running to the corner. Antetokounmpo draws two defenders when he gets to the elbow and kicks it out to Malcolm Brogdon at the top of the perimeter. Because Brogdon is an elite shooter, Damian Lillard closes out on him first and forces him to make the extra pass to Middleton on the wing for a wide open 3-pointer.
That, of course, isn’t a great option for the defense to give up.
Middleton is shooting 44.2 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers this season. That’s a similar rate to J.J. Redick, Kyle Korver, Klay Thompson and Damian Lillard. He’s also just as comfortable making plays for himself off the dribble. According to NBA Savant and NBA.com, he’s shooting 53.8 percent on step backs, 65.0 percent on floaters and 44.6 percent on mid-range pull-ups. It’s a small sample size of 33 shot attempts when it comes to his success with step backs and floaters, but it’s clear he’s capable of creating for himself off the dribble when teams try to clog the paint for Antetokounmpo.
Those sorts of plays make up for nearly a quarter of Middleton’s offense in total, which is incredible considering he ranks in the 89.2 percentile with 1.18 points per spot-up possession. For comparison’s sake, Parker ranked in the 51.1 percentile with 0.96 points per spot-up possession prior to his injury. Middleton even makes quick decisions with the ball in his hands: 71.0 percent of his shots this season have come within two dribbles. He’s at his best when he doesn’t take a dribble — 55.3 percent on 2-pointers and 44.2 percent on 3-pointers — but he’s still efficient when he takes one or two, as you can see with the way he pulls-up, knocks down floaters and drains step backs.
Outside of spot-ups, Middleton scores 17.9 percent of his points in the pick-and-roll. The types of shots he makes in those situations are incredibly similar to the ones we see from him in spot-ups. He can pull-up when he gets to his sweet spots around the elbows…
…drain floaters in the paint…
…and create space from his defender with step backs.
While Middleton only averages 0.75 points per pick-and-roll possession, it has more to do with him struggling to make plays for others and getting to the free throw line than his ability to create good looks for himself. He makes 43.5 percent of his total shot attempts out of the pick-and-roll — a similar rate to Kemba Walker, Reggie Jackson and Kawhi Leonard — but he has turned the ball over on a quarter of his pick-and-roll possessions this season and only gets to the free throw line 8.8 percent of the time.
Many of those turnovers have come when he tries to kick the ball out on deep penetrations, which shouldn’t come as a surprise seeing as only 16.2 percent of Middleton’s career shot attempts have come from 0-3 feet from the basket. In other words: Middleton has never been someone who spends much of his time in the paint.
It’s a similar story with his post-ups. Middleton scores 12.0 percent of his points on the block and ranks in the 53.6 percentile with 0.89 points per possession. He turns the ball over at a relatively high rate (15.2 percent) and doesn’t get to the free throw line much (4.3 percent), but he makes 50 percent of his attempts in the post.
Middleton doesn’t score those points in one particular way, either. He uses his strength well to get as close to the basket as possible and knows his 6-foot-8 frame makes him incredibly difficult to block when he turns over his left shoulder…
…and right shoulder.
Middleton will also face-up to the basket and pull-up for a mid-range jumper if he’s given space by his defender on the catch. There aren’t many guards in the NBA who have the length and height to contest his shot.
Put all of that together and you have a shooting guard who doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective but one who can create a good shot for himself when needed. That’s an incredibly valuable player to put on any team, especially one that is built around a top-10 player like Antetokounmpo. It’s also incredibly difficult to make Middleton uncomfortable with the ball in his hands. As Thon Marker explained to Bleacher Report, being able to play at his own Paul Pierce-like pace no matter what the defense throws at him almost acts as a curveball.
“[Middleton] is the most unselfish shooter I’ve ever seen,” Maker said. “He’s putting the ball on the floor, taking his time. He’s not rushing. He’s very, very under control, clutch down the stretch. So he just kills the defense at his own pace, and for us that really helps.”
Bucks head coach Jason Kidd went as far as saying Middleton has a “calming effect” on the team, both offensively and defensively. Whatever the case may be, there’s no doubt the Bucks are far more competitive team when he’s on the court.
Next: Stating the case for every MIP Candidate
All statistics are up to date as of April 4. Unless otherwise noted, information was gathered from NBA.com and Basketball Reference.