Manny Machado determines future of Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles cannot afford to lose Manny Machado, who is arguably their most important player since Cal Ripken Jr.
Franchise players come around very rarely. At any given time, there are, at most, 10 MLB players you can build a franchise around. Everyone talks about Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, but the most important of them might be Manny Machado.
With all due respect to Trout and Harper, they don’t have the impact of the Orioles third baseman. When healthy, both are better hitters than Machado. However, Harper and Trout are both outfielders who have a lesser impact defensively during a typical game. On the other hand, Machado plays third base and arguably does it better than anyone else. Since joining the majors full-time in 2012, he has won Gold Gloves in 2013 and 2015. One could argue Machado should have won the Gold Glove in 2016 as well.
If you asked every general manager the one player they’d like to build a team around, he would rank quite highly on the list, if not on top of it. At 24 years old, Machado is entering the best years of his career. He already has 105 home runs and a 24.4 bWAR in his first 608 games. Since the start of 2012, despite not playing until late July and missing half of 2014, Machado’s 23.1 fWAR ranks 11th among all position players.
Despite the Orioles’ recent success, they were once the laughingstocks of baseball. Fourteen long seasons without the postseason went before they broke through. From 1998-2011, Baltimore finished in fourth nine times and last place four times.
Since the retirement of Cal Ripken Jr., they lacked a face of the franchise. Adam Jones gave the Orioles the cocky and emotional leader they desperately lacked. But he’s not a franchise player. Machado’s destiny as a franchise player is evident. Despite rarely playing third base in the minors, he made a smooth transition to third base. A natural shortstop, Machado has gone from one of the best shortstop prospects in recent memory to one of the top three third basemen in baseball.
How bad were the Orioles from 1998 to 2011? Brian Roberts and Melvin Mora are the only two Orioles to best Machado’s 23.1 fWAR since joining the team. It took both of them over 1,000 games to do it. Baltimore fans have been vocal about their team’s inability to lock up key players. While re-signing Jones, J.J. Hardy, Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo has changed the narrative, all of it means nothing if Machado leaves.
The Orioles seem to be operating under the assumption they have a two-year window to win the World Series. It’s not a coincidence Machado is a free agent after the 2018 season. Signing him will be no easy task for the Orioles. Baltimore’s television market ranks 21st among cities which have an MLB team. The O’s don’t have the financial resources necessary to give out a litany of massive contracts. Though part of Davis’ deal is deferred, paying Machado over $25 million a season won;t be simple.
Keeping him is the lone option for the Orioles. Losing him would ruin all of the goodwill they’ve accumulated with their fanbase since 2012. It would potentially cripple the franchise and leave them without a cornerstone player. They say history repeats itself. If this is true, the Orioles would be repeating what happened after the 1997 season by letting the best player since Ripken to play for the Orioles sign somewhere else.
Machado and the O’s haven’t talked contracts yet. The major holdup is likely an opt-out. If you’re a great baseball player in today’s game, you get an opt-out. This allows players to potentially get paid in free agency if things aren’t going as planned. The Orioles have never given a player an opt-out and it sounds like something general manager Dan Duquette is not open to.
"“I don’t see, club ownership doesn’t see, the value in [an opt-out] to the Orioles”, said Duquette, via MLB.com. “If we are going to guarantee a contract, it should be a contract.”"
Machado is a player who warrants an exception. Nobody knows why Duquette hates opt-outs, but he’d better start being open to them soon. Without one, there’s no reason for Machado to sign a long-term extension before he hits the free-agent market.
Even trading him for a huge package would bring back horrible nightmares for long-time Orioles fans. For older fans, it might remind them of Eddie Murray’s departure or the Mike Mussina fiasco. Newer fans will remember Miguel Tejada back in 2007.
Keeping Machado would send a message to their fanbase. It would tell their fans they’re 100 percent serious at competing and they’re willing to pay the big bucks to keep stars around. Machado will cost at least $25 million a year and it’s not hard to see him getting over $30 million a year. But for the Orioles, he’s worth every penny of whatever he gets paid.