Welcome to the Thursday, April 6th edition of the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column. This article will review the MLB FanDuel Early Only slate of games for Thursday. We will identify top pitching plays, and value options. Also, we’ll target pitchers to avoid in your lineup, or focus on for hitting. Evaluating pitchers is a key component to building your lineup for a big pay-day.
There are only six early only games to pick through. So we have twelve pitchers to choose from. We’re only going to target four games to narrow our options down to a top play, mid-salary-range option, value play, and a pitcher to avoid but target for your hitting lineup. Here’s a look at the games we’re targeting, with the pitchers we’ll discuss highlighted in bold:
Antonio Senzatela at Chase Anderson (1:40pm ET)
John Lackey at Lance Lynn (1:45pm ET)
Clay Buchholz at Rookie Davis (12:35pm ET)
Let’s start by looking at the top scoring MLB FanDuel pitchers for Thursday…
Next: Top Scoring Pitchers
Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitchers
With limited options today, I’m going with John Lackey ($8,700) as the top option. Against most lineups, I’m fairly comfortable picking Lackey. Last season, John averaged 35.9 MLB FanDuel points-per-game, easily the best average among all starters this afternoon. John was an 11-8 pitcher on the World Series Champion Cubs last year. John had 180 strikeouts, 23rd in the majors, and a very good 3.35 ERA, 22nd in MLB.
On Thursday, John will be dueling against Lance Lynn ($7,000) in his first regular season game since Tommy John surgery. So we have yet to see how Lynn will respond to the surgery in a regular season game, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he struggles in the first couple of outings. Also, while the Cardinals have a great offensive lineup, they’re struggling against the Cubs this series. In 2017, St. Louis has a low .291 wOBA and a run value near the bottom of the league, 89 wRC+. Lackey should give the Cubs another good shot at win today.
Next: Mid-Range and Value Pitchers
Top Mid-Range Pitcher
The once promising Red Sox prospect, Clay Buchholz ($6,400), is coming off of three terrible seasons for Boston. Averaging around eight wins and ten losses per season over the last three seasons, Buchholz also had an average ERA well above 4.00 and just over 100 strikeouts per year. But Clay still has a career ERA below 4 and had a quality start in around 50% of his career starts.
Clay has never been a mow-them-down guy. And he’s a risky play against a Reds offense who’s had a low strikeout ratio to start 2017, low walk ratio, and high scoring value. But the Reds haven’t face any stellar starting pitchers yet, and Buchholz is likely to keep the run scoring down for the Reds on Thursday. He’s worth a consideration if you can’t afford Lackey.
Pitching Value
We don’t know much about Antonio Senzatela ($5,600). Antonio is making his big league debut this afternoon. The 22-year-old Venezuelan hadn’t pitched above Double-A before impressing Rockies management enough this spring to earn the fourth starting spot on the rotation.
I generally like to avoid picking pictures who have little, or in this case no, experience starting in the majors. But Senzatela is facing a Brewers team who has a ridiculous 37.3% K ratio after two games against mediocre pitching from the Rockies. The Brewers also had the worst K% in 2016, 25.5%. So we’re starting to see nothing has changed in the Brewers lineup for 2017. Senzatela has an opportunity to provide incredible value for MLB FanDuel players this afternoon.
Next: Offensive Pitching Target
Offensive Pitching Target
Chase Anderson ($6,300) was 9-11 with a 4.39 ERA in 2016. Anderson had a few brilliant games, but most of his season was unimpressive for MLB FanDuel players. Chase only averaged 21.6 MLB FanDuel points in 2016. That isn’t surprising considering his low 7.14 strikeouts per nine innings. Another stark stat to consider, Anderson only had six quality starts (QS) in 31 games. That’s a horrendously low percentage.
Against this Rockies lineup, Anderson has given up a .300 OBP and .252 batting average. Nolan Arenado ($4,200) and Charlie Blackmon ($4,100) have the most consistent success against Anderson. Nolan eight of 23 with with a double and four home runs, along with ten RBI’s. Chase has only struck out Arenado twice. Blackmon has nearly identical stats, with seven hits in 27 AB’s, two doubles, two home runs, three walks and three RBI’s.
Anderson is a HARD FADE for the early slate, and Blackmon and Arenado should be stacked in every one of your lineups.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel. You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game. But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours before a game. So always stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup. Follow us on twitter, @fantasycpr, for updates as we get closer to lineup lock time. Good Luck today FanDuelers!