Welcome back to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column. The is the Wednesday, April 5th edition. This article will focus Wednesday’s MLB FanDuel MAIN slate of games only. We will continue to identify the top pitching plays and look for value options. Also, we’ll target pitchers to avoid in your lineup, or focus on for hitting. We believe evaluating pitchers is a key component to building your lineup for a big pay-day!
There are 14 games schedule today. Two games are in the early afternoon and are part of the ‘Early’ MLB FanDuel slate only. That narrows down our Main slate of options to twelve games, or 24 teams. That’s a long list of pitchers to review. So we’re going to limit our focus of this article to the best and worst plays of the day, and avoid some of the games we do not believe will offer value to your lineups.
Here’s a look at the games we’re targeting, with the pitchers we’ll discuss highlighted in bold:
J.A. Happ at Dylan Bundy (7:05pm ET)
Bartolo Colon at Jacob deGrom (7:10pm ET)
Michael Pineda at Alex Cobb (7:10pm ET)
Jerad Eickhoff at Brandon Finnegan (7:10pm ET)
Tyler Chatwood at Wily Peralta (8:10pm ET)
James Paxton at Charlie Morton (8:10pm ET)
Matt Moore at Taijuan Walker (9:40pm ET)
Trevor Cahill at Rich Hill (10:10pm ET)
Let’s start by looking at the top scoring MLB FanDuel pitchers for Wednesday…
Next: Top Scoring Pitchers
Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitchers
On Monday we loved Kershaw. In many ways, Kershaw is typically a no-brainer, but considering the robust list of top line starters on Monday, it was worth questioning if we should have paid that much for him. In return, Kershaw dropped 52 MLB FanDuel points and still allowed plenty of value for winning lineups. We avoided the Dodgers yesterday, but was tempted by Maeda’s value. Cueto seemed like a better fit, but only gave us a respectable 24 MLB FanDuel points.
But tonight, we’re going back to the Dodgers with Rich Hill ($9,600) on the mound in Los Angeles. Hill is a 37-year-old veteran left-hander. Rich had a great season for the Oakland A’s, and was traded to the Dodgers as they prepared for the post season. Back in L.A. again this year, Hill is looking to continue the success he created last year. In 20 starts, Rich was 12-5 with a very low 2.12 ERA and had 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The Dodgers are playing a Padres steam who has struggled to develop productive bats in 2016, and now to start the 2017 season.
Against lefties, the Padres have a low .315 wOBA. Also, they have a high 25.3% strikeout ration against south-paws. Pair that with Hills 29.4% strikeout ratio, the highest of any starter on Wednesday, and you can see how this is a great match up for Hill and the Dodgers. You’re also paying $1.8K less for Hill over Sale, who’s match up isn’t as juicy.
The next best option is Jacob deGrom ($9,800). While the Braves have a lower .308 wOBA against righties like deGrom, they have a much lower strikeout ratio compared to the Padres, at 19.7%. Hill and deGrom are each great options, but Hill gives you the advantage with more strikeouts and you save $200 for your hitting lineup.
Next: Top Mid-Range Pitcher
Top Mid-Range Pitcher
Michael Pineda ($8,200) had a rough 2016, with a 6-12 record and 4.82 ERA. But Pineda had 207 strikeouts last season, with a 27.4% K ration, 3rd among all starters today. Michael and the Yankees are playing a Tampa Rays lineup who had the 3rd worst strikeout ratio in 2016, 24.5%.
So you can expect Pineda to get around 8-10 strikeouts today, if he’s able to last 6 or more innings. With a low ERA today, Pineda would set us up well for solid scoring at pitcher, and give us back $1.4-2K+ in salary for bit hitting options.
Looking to saving an additional $300, Jerad Eickhoff ($7,900) is an attractive option at the bottom of the mid-salary-range list of pitchers tonight. Jerad provides a lot of standard mid-range value in his stats. Eickhoff was 11-14 last year, with a decent 3.65 ERA and 7.6 K’s per nine innings.
But the righty matches up with against the Reds. Cincinnati has an identical 20.6% strikeout ratio against right-handed pitchers. The Reds also have a lower .314 wOBA against right-handers in 2016, and Eickhoff only walks batters 5.2% clip. So this likely a very low scoring game for the Reds. Considering using Eickhoff is you are looking for some sneaky, low ownership, value.
Next: Pitching Value
Pitching Value
On the high-end of a value play, Dylan Bundy ($7,000) surprisingly matches up well against a tough Toronto Blue Jay’s lineup. Bundy is a former top prospect who’s having a modest start to his career. Last season, Dylan had a 4.02 ERA and 104 K’s over 109 innings. But he had a decent 10-6 record, and almost nine strikeouts per nine innings. That’s not a bad start.
Against right-handed pitchers in 2016, the Blue Jays actually struggled a bit. While the Jays have a solid .328 wOBA against righties, they also have a high 22.4% strikeout ratio. So if Dylan is throwing at least six to eight innings, he’s likely to have around seven to ten strikeouts. Also, the Blue Jays aren’t expected to put up more than three to five runs against Bundy and the Orioles today. So Dylan has a solid chance at a quality start, better than most of the starters on Wednesday night.
Next: Offensive Pitching Target
Offensive Pitching Target
Wily Peralta ($6,400) and Charlie Morton ($6,400) are two pitchers I do not like tonight. The Rockies had a 20.7% strikeout ratio in 2016, which is high. But Peralta’s strikeout ratio was only 16.8%. Worse, the Rockies have a wOBA of .344 against pitchers like Peralta and Wily has a 7.8% walk ratio. It’s likely the Rockies knock in at least five runs while Wily is on the mound.
Morton pitched for a brief period on the Phillies staff last season. His results were unimpressive, 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 17 innings. The strikeout ratio isn’t bad, but I’d like to see what it looks like after a full season. The Astros see enough in Morton to put him 3rd in their rotation to start the season. But along with the high K ratio, Morton has an 11.3% walk ratio and the Mariners have a wOBA of .326 against pitchers like Morton. The Mariners should finally get that win against the Astros in Houston tonight.
Taijuan Walker ($7,500) and the Pirates Taillon are some other pitchers to avoid. The Giants have hit the ball very well against the Diamondbacks pitching staff. While Walker is a young talent, he has yet to provide impressive statistics, with only 119 K’s in 134 innings in 2016, and a 4.22 ERA. Taillon is a solid pitcher as well, but doesn’t match up well against the Red Sox. The Red Sox and Giants should be on your list of targets for hitting.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel. You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game. But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours before a game. So always stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup. Follow us on twitter, @fantasycpr, for updates as we get closer to lineup lock time. Good Luck today FanDuelers!