Welcome back to the Thursday, April 6th edition of the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column. This article will review the MLB FanDuel MAIN slate of games for Thursday. We will identify top pitching plays and value options. Also, we’ll continue to target pitchers to avoid in your lineup, or focus on for hitting.
There are only four games to pick through for the Main, or evening, slate of MLB FanDuel games. So we have eight pitchers to choose from. We’re only going to target three games to narrow our options down to a top play, mid-salary-range option, value play, and two pitchers to avoid but target for your hitting lineup. Here’s a look at the games we’re targeting, with the pitchers we’ll discuss highlighted in bold:
Marcus Stroman at Blake Snell (7:10pm ET)
Ariel Miranda at Joe Musgrove (8:10pm ET)
Jeff Samardzijia at Robbie Ray (9:40pm ET)
The Blue Jays are starting a new series in Tampa against the Rays. The Mariners continue their series in Houston, and the Giants are closing their series in Arizona, where both teams have been very active at the plate.
Let’s start by looking at the top scoring MLB FanDuel pitcher for Thursday evening…
Next: Top Scoring Pitchers
Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitchers
In a hitter friendly park, the Giants offense has been on fire against the Diamondbacks, but the D-Backs have also done well against pitchers like Moore and the Giants bullpen. However, Cueto and Bumgarner were able to toss very impressive starts off the mound. Jeff Samardzija ($8,600) should have an outcome more like Bum and Cueto.
Samardzija had a decent 20.1% strikeout ratio in 2016 and is facing a D-Backs lineup who had a 22.6% ratio. And last season, Samardzija averaged around seven to eight strikeouts per nine innings, so it’s not unreasonable to expect the high-end of that average over six innings, or about six to seven K’s tonight. Also, in 2016 Jeff had 17 quality starts (QS), or a QS in 53% of his games on the mound. That was good enough for 33rd among all starting MLB pitchers.
Finally, Samardzija had a low 6.5% walk ratio and the D-Backs have one of the lowest wOBA in MLB, so their offensive production will be stymied today, compared to the Moore outcome. Tonight is a good night to fade the D-Back’s lineup and pay up for Samardzija.
Next: Mid-Range and Value Pitchers
Top Mid-Range Pitcher
While I like Samardzija as a top scoring option tonight, Marcus Stroman ($7,500) is a close second and actually has as good of a shot at being a top scorer. He just happens to be cheaper, which should be a very attractive option for all MLB FanDuel players.
Stroman is heading into his first start of the season, after looking fantastic in the WBC. So it’s safe to say Marcus had a solid spring training. Marcus has a more modest K ratio in 2016, 19.4%. But he’s throwing against the Rays who have struggled with strikeouts at the plate since early last season, averaging 24.2% (that’s high). Marcus has a slightly lower walk ratio, 6.3%, and the Rays come into this game with a week wOBA of only .305 so far this season. Stroman should continue to roll tonight, and is the best value play at pitcher.
Pitching Value
If you like value plays like Stroman, but need an extra $100 for your lineup, consider Joe Musgrove ($7,400). Musgrove had a higher strikeout ratio than Stroman in 2016, 21.5%. In fact, Joe’s 2016 sabermetrics look very similar to Stroman’s. The only difference tonight is, Musgrove is dealing with more risk at the plate. The Seattle Mariners offense is one of the more efficient in baseball, and could put stats like a QS for Musgrove at risk tonight.
Next: Offensive Pitching Target
Offensive Pitching Target
Shifting away from the picks we’re identifying for your lineups tonight, now we’re going to target a couple of pitchers for our batting lineup. Our first target is Blake Snell ($7,700). At first glance, you’ll notice the Blue Jays struggled in their first two games against the Orioles. But Baltimore produced some solid pitching on the mound and Snell will provide an easier look for the Jays hitters at the plate tonight.
Snell had a solid 24.4% strikeout ratio last year, but he also had a horrendous 12.7% walk rate. Pair the walk risk with the wOBA of .324 from the Blue Jays and a mid-league strikeout rate, and you’ll see the Jays have opportunity to get on base more often in Tampa tonight. Also, the Blue Jays still have a potent lineup, and after stifling in Baltimore, they’re due to explode. Fade Snell and stack some offensive Jays in your lineup like Steve Pearce (OF – $3,000) who’s leading off for the Blue Jays and slugger Josh Donaldson (3B – $3,900).
Another guy we’re targeting for hitters is Ariel Miranda ($6,600). Miranda is projected to give up around five to six runs tonight. And after having a high 23.4% strikeout ratio in 2016, the Astros have the 2nd best K% starting off the 2017 season with only 15.8%. With cheaper options at pitcher tonight, you should be able to afford expensive bats like Jose Altuve (3,900) and Carlos Correa ($3,900) from the Astros, which will come alive tonight!
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel. You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game. But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours before a game. So always stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup. Follow us on twitter, @fantasycpr, for updates as we get closer to lineup lock time. Good Luck today FanDuelers!