MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus April 7 Main Slate

This is the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column for Friday, April 7th.  We will focus this column on Friday’s MLB FanDuel MAIN slate of games only.  Our goal is to find top pitching plays and look for value options.  Also, we’ll target pitchers to avoid in your lineup, or focus on for hitting.  Evaluating pitchers is a key component to building your lineup for a big pay-day.

Before we dive into the more robust Main MLB FanDuel slate tonight, let’s review the early top options.  In the Early Only and Afternoon Only MLB FanDuel slates, target Max Scherzer ($10,300) against a bad Phillies lineup in Philadelphia this afternoon.  Like Kershaw on Opening Day Monday, Scherzer is worth giving up salary with your hitting options, and there’s plenty of value available.

For the Main slate, there are ten games to pick through, or 20 different starting pitchers. Unfortunately, we’re now entering the back-end of five-person rotations for most of the teams playing tonight.  So the top scoring options are difficult to identify.  We’ll review our top option, along with a value option.  Also, there are a few pitchers we’re going to target for the rest of our lineup.  Here’s a look at the games we’re targeting, with the pitchers we’ll discuss highlighted in bold:

Francisco Liriano at Matt Andriese (7:10pm ET) 

Jason Vargas at Mike Fiers (8:10pm ET)

Brett Anderson at Jimmy Nelson (8:10pm ET)

Amir Garrett at Mike Leake (8:15pm ET)

Josh Tomlin at Shelby Miller (9:40pm ET)

Anyone notice a trend in our targets (‘homers’)?

Let’s start by looking at the top scoring MLB FanDuel pitcher for Friday…

Next: Top Scoring Pitchers

Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitchers

Houston Astros’ Mike Fiers ($7,300) doesn’t immediately jump off the list of available pitchers for you as you flip through the options.  Fiers has a decent 11-8 record in 2016, a sub-par 134 strikeouts in 168 innings, and an uncomfortable 4.48 ERA.  I was tempted to gab Liriano because of his high K% versus the Rays high K%, but Liriano has a higher ERA than Fiers and is pitching poorly against teams like the Rays.

As we know, ERA is an average.  When facing your poor hitting teams, you typically find yourself on the low-end of the average.  The Astros are welcoming the Kansas City Royals to Houston tonight.  If you’ve followed baseball the last couple of years, you may still have memories of the world series champions.  But the Royals hitting has suffered over the last year.

In 2016, the Royals had a wRC+, or run value, of only 88.  That’s 4th worst among all major league teams.  Yikes!  The Royals were had a 20% strikeout ratio, middle of the pack last season, but a low 6.3% walk ratio.  So Kansas City is hitting for a lot of outs.

The Royals have continued to fall in 2017, with a horrendous offensive start.  After a three-game series with the Twins, where they were swept, the Royals only scored a total of 5 runs, have a rock-bottom wRC+ of only 15, another rock-bottom wOBA of .183, and their strikeout ratio is inching toward 21%.  So Fiers is facing a lineup that is beginning to look like the worst in baseball this season.

Next: Pitching Value

Pitching Value

If you don’t like Fiers, which is probably a mistake, and you want to take better advantage of the dirt-cheap pitching tonight, consider Mike Leake ($6,600).  Like Fiers, Leake’s numbers don’t jump out to you from the list of lineup options.  Leake has a high 4.69 ERA in the 2016 season, only 125 K’s over 176 innings, and a 9-12 record on a good Cardinals baseball team.

But also similar to Fiers, Leake is facing a struggling offense on his home mound.  The Reds are hitting nowhere near as terrible as the Royals.  But in 2016, the Reds had the 5th worst offensive statistic in almost every category, and a slightly higher K ratio than the Royals, over 21%.  The Reds started their 2017 season against a decent Phillies rotation, but bad bullpen.  As a result, their offensive stats are already similar to 2016.  So Leake is likely to only give up two to three runs, and could be on a higher end of his strikeout ratio, somewhere around four to five K’s.  Mike also has a solid shot at a quality start, a big MLB FanDuel category for pitchers and winning lineups.

Next: Offensive Pitching Target

Offensive Pitching Target

We’ll likely revisit Shelby Miller ($7,100) this season as a solid play for our lineups.  Not tonight. Arizona is a hitters park, and the Giants piled up almost 20 runs in just three games, or over 6 runs per game.  The Diamondbacks are welcoming the Cleveland Indians into Arizona tonight.  The World Series losers were in the top ten of most offensive statistics last season.  To start 2017, they have a very high 12% walk ratio, a great wOBA of .340, and very high wRC+ of 130 (7th in the majors in 2017 so far).  The Indians numbers will continue to climb tonight and Miller should have a rough outing.  Tonight is a good chance for Edwin Encarnacion (1B – $3,900) to bounce back, along with some other tribesman.

The Blue Jays and Cubs are two other teams whose offense often landed in top 10 spots in statistical categories for 2016.   The Blue Jays offense has sputtered to start the season against a solid Orioles staff and bullpen.  The Cubs had to start the season in St. Louis against the Wild Card favorite Cardinals.

But tonight, the Blue Jays are in Tampa facing Matt Andriese ($5,800) and the Cubs are in Milwaukee facing Jimmy Nelson ($5,900).  Nelson is another starter tonight with a high ERA, 4.81, and low sub-nine K ratio.  Andriese has a better ERA and slightly better K ratio, but will be on the high end of his ERA tonight.  Look to stack some Indians like Carlos Santana (1B – $3,800), Francisco Lindor (SS – $3,700), or Michael Brantley (OF – $3,200).  From the Cubs, consider Willson Contreras (C – $3,000), assuming he’s starting behind the plate, or Kyle Schwarber (OF – $3,400).

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel.  You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game.  But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours before a game.  So always stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup.  Follow us on twitter, @fantasycpr, for updates as we get closer to lineup lock time.  Good Luck today FanDuelers!