MLB Over/Under best bet: Matt Harvey and Jaime Garcia square off
By Matt Zylbert
The showdown between Matt Harvey and Jaime Garcia is a ripe for some action from bettors.
No matter the sport, no one goes through an entire season undefeated in betting, so our first defeat in the new campaign was inevitable. It’s just a shame it had to befall on last night’s affair between Matt Moore and Taijuan Walker, as both deserved better than some of the shoddy defense that was witnessed behind them. We’ll try to get back on the winning track as I return to the site of my first over/under victory of the season, Flushing, NY, with this action for tonight.
Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Record: 2-1, +100
Yesterday’s Result: Moore vs Walker Under 9.5 (Loss)
Jaime Garcia vs Matt Harvey
UNDER 8 (-120) (Via OddsShark)
There will be two key storylines on display when the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets engage in the rubber match of their season-starting three-game series Thursday evening.
The main one, of course, revolves around the return of Matt Harvey — otherwise known as The Dark Knight amongst the baseball world — but rather than it showcasing a hero looking to pick up where he last left off, it will instead focus on a former star looking to regain his luster.
When we last saw Harvey in a regular season contest, he was trampled by another NL East club, the Miami Marlins, on the Fourth of July in what was arguably the worst start of his career. The Fish tagged him for six runs (five earned) on 11 hits in less than four innings of work. That would be the right-hander’s final start of 2016, as he underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery soon after, finishing the season with a dreadful 4-10 record to go with career worsts across the board in ERA (4.86), WHIP (1.47), K/9 (7.38) and batting average against (.302).
But Harvey is back and motivated to succeed on the mound once again, and based on his increased velocity at the end of spring training, he could be a quality bet to return to old form. It will also help that he’ll be making his return at home tonight, where the 28-year-old is typically better. In fact, throughout his career, there’s nearly a full-run difference on his ERA when pitching in front of Mets faithful at Citi Field (2.53) compared to on the road (3.41).
The other storyline featured in this pitching matchup involves the Atlanta debut of Jaime Garcia, who will be starting his first game for the Braves after spending the previous nine years of his career in St. Louis. Garcia looked just fine throughout spring training, sporting a 3.20 ERA in 19 2/3 innings while getting acclimated to his new surroundings.
However, it may be his past success opposite the Mets that should have us excited for his outlook tonight. The 30-year-old southpaw is only 2-3 in seven starts against New York, but owns a 2.66 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in those outings. With the line at 8, we ideally just need both starters to hang in there, and considering the circumstances for each hurler, it’s an under bet worth making.