Stating the case for every Rookie of the Year candidate

The 2016-17 class won’t likely go down as an all-time, league-defining group of rookies. Joel Embiid, who if healthy will go down as the group’s best member, only qualifies because he sat out his first two years. Dario Saric, the current favorite to win Rookie of the Year, was drafted in 2014.

This isn’t to say the class won’t better with age. Players like Lakers forward Brandon Ingram will get better. Ditto for guys like Suns rookies Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender. Maybe Bucks forward Thon Maker ends up being great in three years.  And players like Celtics forward Jaylen Brown and Nuggets guard Jamal Murray are making impacts, but perhaps not in large enough ways to deserve ROY consideration.

But someone does have to win the award. Let’s try and figure out who.

Joel Embiid

Embiid is the most transfixing player in this rookie class and it’s not particular close. His stats were incredible, especially for a player who hadn’t played in two full years. On both ends, he was cementing himself as a star center and foundational building block for the 76ers. If and when he comes back next year, he will be the most talked about player in this class. If he’s healthy and on the court, there is no one better.

But he also hasn’t played since Jan. 20 and is out the rest of the year due to injury. He didn’t play in back-to-backs this year. As good as he was and how much better he was than every other rookie, 31 games and 786 total minutes isn’t a large enough sample to name Embiid the Rookie of the Year.  By comparison, Saric has played 73 games and 2058 minutes. Brogdon has played in 73 games and across 1934 minutes. Being healthy and on the court is pretty important.

Dario Saric

For 76ers fans, losing Embiid for the year was a bummer and not having Ben Simmons healthy this year didn’t help either. But Saric coming over and playing this well should soften the blow at least a little bit.

Saric’s minutes will be limited the rest of the season due to a sore left heel. But he’s played especially well in the past month-plus — 18.4 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.3 assists — and will either finish first or second in rookie scoring for the season. His growth as a passer is particularly interesting and promising for his future. Imagine the 76ers next year, with Simmons, Saric, Embiid and whoever they take in the draft this year. Now that’s a team built for the modern game.

Plus, Saric got Embiid’s endorsement.  That has to count for something.

Malcolm Brogdon

He’s missed some time recently with a back injury, but Brogdon has a very strong case. He’ll likely finish first among rookies in assists and is currently fourth in 3-point percentage. He’s also largely outplayed Matthew Dellavedova, a player the Bucks committed a lot of money to over the summer. It took a bit of time for Jason Kidd to put him in the starting lineup, but he earned that role and he’s been a nice running mate for Giannis as the Bucks, who are probably going to finish No. 5 East and make the No. 4’s seeds life really uncomfortable.

This quote from Celtics coach Brad Stevens — who Brogdon recently came up clutch against — speaks volumes.

“He’s not a rookie,” said Celtics coach Brad Stevens, per Yahoo. “He’s not a rookie, and I say that with complete respect to him. Like, that guy, he knows how to play. He’s known how to play for a long time. He was a tremendous college player who was an ultimate winner, and he’s just picked right up where he left off.”

Saric, though, is a bit more dynamic and is scoring more than Brogdon. But if voters decide they want to value winning in this race, or the Sixers vote gets split, there’s a chance Brogdon wins. The argument for him, simply, is that he’s competent in a bad class.

Next: Understanding the playoff rotations of NBA championship contenders

Others

Jaylen Brown: Stevens has trusted Brown more of late and increased his minutes slowly, but surely. He’s a good shooter, does a good job on defense by rookie standards and has slowly progressed all year. Were he on a team where he played more (say, the 76ers or Nets) it’d be interesting to see what his rookie year looked like.

Caris LaVert: If you’re the bright spot for the Nets, that deserves some form of recognition.

Jamal Murray: His strong play for the Nuggets has been somewhat overshadowed by Nikola Jokic’s rise and he doesn’t play quite as much because of Jameer Nelson (which should say something about his chances of being Rookie of the Year. But this season, he has supplanted Emmanuel Mudiay as the team’s guard of the future and it’ll be interesting to see where he goes from here and how the Nuggets decide to use him. Will they let Will Barton walk? Will Mudiay get dealt?

Just remember: Rookie the Year isn’t everything and not necessarily an indicator of future greatness. Just ask Michael Carter-Williams.