FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – April 7
Welcome to the Friday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Over the first six slates of the year, it has taken 213.6, 246.7, 196.2, 240.3, 216.6 and 215.1 FanDuel points in order to take down a GPP! Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Thursday’s Early Picks and Pivots just missed the cash line but our Main Slate line-up cashed out across the board with a big time outing from Marcus Stroman and home runs from Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, George Springer and Mitch Haniger! As you can see over the first few days there is significant variance in the winning scores so while it is important to use these data points you must also understand the significant variability in MLB DFS which makes it ideal for GPP play!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB: Top Starting Pitcher Picks
Let’s be honest, this pitching slate is a rough one as any time you open up to Francisco Liriano being the highest priced item you know we are in for a rough day. To me this slate becomes one where you focus on offense first and then work in starting pitchers with upside that fit within that roster build. I am not willing to sacrifice my offensive targets on this slate to allocate salary to a starting pitcher that I do not feel strongly about.
Zack Wheeler ($6,500) It has been two seasons since Zack Wheeler stepped on to a Major League mound as his career has been derailed by injury but the once top prospect from San Francisco who was traded to the Mets for Carlos Beltran is back in the New York rotation as the Number 4 starter and will toe the rubber against the Marlins tonight.
For all the buzz in recent years around guys like Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey it is important to remember that Wheeler was that guy first for a rebuilding NY club, a hard-throwing mid to high 90’s flame thrower with a nasty curveball and hard sinker. Over his career, Wheeler has been a K/IP guy who limits hard contact (less than 30%) and has an elevated ground ball rate due to his hard sinking action which should help him neutralize some of the power in the Marlins lineup.
Wheeler is a solid home favorite pitching in a spacious ballpark with chilly weather in the 40’s that should further aid his cause tonight and I like him as a GPP play tonight at this reduced price point. I would not expect him to go deep into the game as the Mets look to limit his innings as he works his way back but at this price point he has the strikeout upside to easily pay off this tag with a quality outing!
Mike Leake ($6,600) If you are looking for a “safer” alternative, Mike Leake at just $100 more than Wheeler is a great pivot utilizing the same core roster build which is my preferred strategy each and every night in MLB DFS.
Leake was featured in Matt Rogers FanDuel Pitching Focus for Today’s Slate as a great value pick and as the largest favorite on the board I would tend to agree with him! Leake is a solid starting pitcher who although he does not possess elite strikeout upside, has exceptional control with only a 4% walk rate which helps him limit his damage each night.
Leake gave up 2 or fewer runs in 15 of his 30 starts last season and tonight as a large home favorite I think it is perfectly fine to “chase the win” here with one of the safer options on the board if you want to avoid the plethora of risky options across this slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Chicago Cubs against RHP Jimmy Nelson: The Cubs come into tonight’s game with the third highest team total on the board as they head to Milwaukee to face off with Jimmy Nelson and the Brew Crew.
Nelson is a guy who surrenders 1.32 HR/9 at home and has a strike-out rate nearly identical to his walk rate (not good) against left-handed hitters which against the Cubs could mean plenty of men on base which sets up perfectly for a stack! Nelson gave up a 37% hard contact rate last season to LHB so plugging in guys like Anthony Rizzo ($4,000) and Kyle Schwarber ($3,400) gives you immediate high-upside plays within this stack.
Kris Bryant ($4,200) is a guy who may get over looked here with the righty-righty match-up and the fact he has yet to register a hit this season may leave him under owned but we all know the kind of upside he can possess on any given night and with a Rizzo/Schwarber core I am going to find a way to get Bryant in as part of a larger stack tonight!
The only reason I would choose to pivot away from Bryant on this slate is that Wilmer Flores ($2,300) makes for an elite one-off play at 3B tonight. Flores crushes lefties (as evidenced by his home run last night) and should bat clean-up against tonight against a LHP which for only $2.3k is a steal!
Houston Astros versus LHP Jason Vargas: We went over this one yesterday – when the Astros are home and facing a lefty, you stack them up! Jason Vargas gives up 1.43 HR/9 to RHB on the road in his career and as a soft tossing lefty with a low strike out rate we could be looking at another big night for the Astros bats.
George Springer ($4,100) is red-hot right now with home runs in back to back games and can/should be stacked with Carlos Correa ($3,900) and Jose Altuve ($3,700), the later of whom is 5 for 9 with a home run in his career against Vargas!
Oakland A’s versus A.J. Griffin: The A’s are my favorite under the radar stack here tonight as they get a huge ballpark shift moving to Texas and Vegas has them currently as the 6th highest scoring team on the Main Slate as they take on A.J. Griffin.
Griffin is a guy who gets crushed by left-handed hitters as he surrendered an insane 2.88 HR/9 last season with a massive 45% hard contact rate! Matt Joyce ($2,100) should be batting lead-off in this spot and makes for an elite punt play and can be paired with Stephen Vogt ($2,800) in the middle of the Oakland line-up to maximize our exposure to a potential blow up spot in Texas!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP Lineup and Slate Overview
P: Zack Wheeler ($6,500) or Mike Leake ($6,600)
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C: Stephen Vogt ($2,800)
1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,000)
2B: Jose Altuve ($3,700)
3B: Kris Bryant ($4,200)
SS: Carlos Correa ($3,900)
OF: George Springer ($4,100)
OF: Kyle Schwarber ($3,400)
OF: Matt Joyce ($2,100)
Slate Overview: We are hopefully getting to the point in the MLB schedule where the rotations overlap a bit less and we get at least a few #1 starters on each slate but tonight we have to wade through a variety of risky GPP arms. My recommendation is to load up on your core stacks (Cubs/Astros/A’s in my case) and then mix and match the starting pitchers that fit within your roster build.
Next: FanDuel MLB Pitching Breakdown
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!