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MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Pirates could bring an under

By Matt Zylbert

Feb 28, 2017; Bradenton, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Ivan Nova (46) pitches in the first inning of the spring training game against the Toronto Blue Jays at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 28, 2017; Bradenton, FL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Ivan Nova (46) pitches in the first inning of the spring training game against the Toronto Blue Jays at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Pittsburgh Pirates’ home opener could showcase some quality starting pitching to help pace an under.

Well, nothing wrong with a push, though I certainly wanted more in last night’s intriguing matchup between Jaime Garcia and Matt Harvey, considering it was 0-0 in the fifth. But that type of stuff happens, and we move on to today’s best bet over/under.

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 2-1-1, +100

Yesterday’s Result: Garcia vs Harvey Under 8 (Push)

Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Mike Foltynewicz vs. Ivan Nova

UNDER 8 (-115) (Via OddsShark)

Following an 0-2 start at Fenway Park, the Pirates are set to open up their 2017 home slate this afternoon, and will have one of their best pitchers from last season on the hill to partake in the honors. That would be Ivan Nova, who wasn’t even on Pittsburgh at this time a year ago.

Nova arrived in Pittsburgh around the trade deadline and ended up being one of the best midseason acquisitions in all of baseball. In 11 starts with the club, the former New York Yankee went 5-2 with a dazzling 3.06 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, while producing a remarkable 52/3 K/BB ratio across 64 2/3 total innings of work. He was consistently on his game, too, yielding less than three runs in seven of those outing.

The 30-year-old will particularly look to capitalize on this season-opening assignment, taking on a lineup that struggled to scratch across some runs in their series versus the Mets.

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The Braves will roll with Mike Foltynewicz, who also exhibited some signs in 2016 of a breakout, albeit more in flashes compared to his counterpart. Overall, he was a respectable 9-5 in 22 starts with a 4.31 ERA and 111 punch-outs in 123 1/3 innings, but he’s shown the ability that he can take a leap forward as soon as this season. I’ll bet on him getting off to a fine start in the new campaign, and if Nova can continue his great consistency from the end of last year, we’ll be in nice shape.

Cleveland Indians @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Josh Tomlin vs. Shelby Miller

OVER 10 (-110) (Via OddsShark)

The defending American League champions are out to a fast start in 2017, winning their first three, thanks largely in part to their talented slugging lineup, which plated 21 runs in their opening series against the Rangers, and it looks like their offense can continue its success over the weekend at hitter-friendly Chase Field.

Not only that, the pitching matchup in the series opener certainly asks for that, as they’ll be opposing Shelby Miller, one of the biggest disasters in baseball a season ago. The former St. Louis Cardinal didn’t offer much reason for optimism entering his second campaign with the D-backs, considering he registered an ugly 6.46 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 15 1/3 innings this spring.

Josh Tomlin, meanwhile, can be just as hittable. It won’t be an easy assignment, as he’ll be tasked with trying to tame Arizona’s potent lineup that churned out four overs in as many tries in their first series of the season with the Giants. Tomlin has a hard time striking out batters, punching out only 118 batters in 174 innings last season, making it more likely that the Diamondbacks can produce another crooked number on the scoreboard. All things considered, there should be a fair amount of offense in this one.

Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers

Raul Alcantara vs. A.J. Griffin

OVER 10 (-110) (Via OddsShark)

It’s typical for games in Arlington to attract a high over/under line, and with this pitching matchup on tap in this series opener, it absolutely calls for one.

Making his first start of the year is A.J. Griffin, who was surprisingly solid in 2016 in his first rodeo in Texas. He made 23 starts for the club after missing the previous two seasons due to injury, going a respectable 7-4, but finished with a 5.07 ERA and clearly was less effective after the All-Star break, being tagged with a 6.04 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over that span. Tonight won’t be an easy start, as the A’s have displayed a competent lineup thus far.

Second-year starter Raul Alcantara wasn’t any better last season in his rookie campaign, albeit in a short sample. He started in five ballgames, en route to recording a disastrous 7.25 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, as opponents raked .333 off him. He doesn’t miss many bats, and as long as Texas’ dangerous hitters are continually putting the ball in play off the right-hander, they should find success. Over is the bet here.

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