NASCAR already has a Track Too Tough to Tame, but Texas Motor Speedway might earn an honorable mention for this year.
When seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson almost spins himself up in qualifying, you know Texas Motor Speedway really is a bit different than it was before it was repaved and reconfigured. Now the question is whether the practice time prior to the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 has given the rest of the field time to figure it out.
The one and a half-mile oval used to be Johnson’s playground, as he brought his No. 48 Chevy home first five of the last eight Texas races. It could a little bit different this time around, though Johnson was able to save his car from any body damage and smart money assumes that he, Chad Knaus and the rest of the team have as good a shot as anyone at racing to the front.
Already up there to begin the race will be Kevin Harvick, who hasn’t quite had the results to date that the speed of his No. 4 Ford would suggest. In fact he and his Stewart-Haas teammates have cooled off a bit after starting the Cup Series season off with a bang, and now Texas looks like it could be a place for a rally since Clint Bowyer (starting third) and Kurt Busch (10th) also have favorable starting spots.
Naturally, stage racing is making its O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 debut as well, and slow-starting drivers like Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (starting 37th) could really use some stage points to start digging themselves out of early season holes. But it’s a long 500 miles, and it’s still more important to be within striking distance of the lead at the end rather than the middle of the race.
Next: What are the stage lengths at Texas Motor Speedway?
Forecast
According to Weather.com, there should be plenty of sunshine, setting up an interesting dynamic between the inherent grip of the repaved racing surface and the slipperiness that often results from a hot track. It’s also expected to be windy, with 20-plus mph wind gusts. That could make car balance a headache for crew chiefs all afternoon.
Three things to watch
- Back to front: Along with Johnson’s misadventure, getting through technical inspection made Friday’s qualifying session more interesting than most, and several strong cars will start the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 near the rear of the field. Points leader Kyle Larson and current runner-up Chase Elliott are among them, as are Kyle Busch and Saturday’s XFINITY Series race winner Erik Jones. They can’t let the likes of Harvick, Ryan Blaney and the Team Penske duo of Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski get away from them, so the opening segment of the race could be interesting.
- An XFINITY edge: It’s always fair to wonder how much drivers gain from running the XFINITY Series race the day before the Cup Series contest since the cars are different. At Texas, though, those extra laps on the new surface should definitely come in handy. Along with Jones, Blaney, Harvick, the Dillon brothers, Logano and Daniel Suarez all competed yesterday.
- A potential breakthrough: Johnson is starting to get to the point where his fans might start worrying about him, but you know he’s going to get it going sooner or later, and new layout or not, Texas Motor Speedway could be the cure to what currently ails the 48. Harvick hasn’t found his way to Victory Lane yet in 2017, nor have the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas. Something is going to give, and it could start today.
Predictions
It’s tempting to throw in with Johnson, especially since he was fastest in final practice. Ditto with Kyle Busch, but we’re going with someone who is hotter and starting with a more favorable spot (and pit road stall): Joey Logano, who won the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 three years ago. The Penske cars just seem to have figured things out a little more than most other teams to this point in the season, making it hard to get against them until that changes.
If you want to back a longer shot, maybe this is the week that Ricky Stenhouse Jr. busts out. Yes, the Roush Fenway gang has been pretty mediocre, but both Stenhouse and Trevor Bayne are starting just outside the top 10, so perhaps the Mississippi native is poised to improve upon his career-best Texas finish of 15th and actually contend for a win.