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MLB Over/Under Bet: Plenty of runs on tap in Cosart vs. Chatwood?

By Matt Zylbert

September 22, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Tyler Chatwood (32) throws in the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
September 22, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Tyler Chatwood (32) throws in the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jarred Cosart and Tyler Chatwood open up a three-game set from Coors Field tonight, and there could be more than enough runs for the over.

Well, unfortunately we sustained yet another bad beat yesterday, as Julio Teheran and Gerrit Cole both gave us exactly what we wanted for the under — while all Pirates runs were unearned going into the final frame — only to see a blown save with two outs in the ninth that included a botched double play by Brandon Phillips. So, after an opening week marred by bad luck, we hope for better fortune moving forward.

Zylbert’s 2017 Over/Under Betting Record: 3-4-2, -135

Yesterday’s Result: Teheran vs Cole Under 8 (Loss)

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

Jarred Cosart vs. Tyler Chatwood

OVER 11.5 (+105) (Odds via OddsShark)

Taking an over with a line this high can be tricky, as you wouldn’t be rewarded for a high-scoring affair such as 7-4 or 6-5, but it’s just par for the course concerning games played at Coors Field to the linesmakers.

Thus far, Rockies home games have a produced a 2-1 record in favor of the under after Colorado played their first series in front of the hometown faithful this past weekend versus the Dodgers, but we’re hoping the pitching matchup in this series-opening encounter between two NL West rivals can generate the opposite.

On the surface, Tyler Chatwood doesn’t seem like the ideal pitcher to back for such a bet, considering he led all active Colorado pitchers in wins last year (12) while producing a relatively solid 3.87 ERA for the club in 27 starts. But if you submerge further into his numbers from a season ago, you’ll see that the 27-year-old actually struggled mightily at Coors Field, posting a 6.12 ERA in 14 starts at Coors Field, compared to a shiny 1.69 ERA in 13 road assignments.

Furthermore, he’s not coming off a particularly good 2017 debut, after allowing four runs in six innings against the Brewers, including two home runs. Unfortunately for Chatwood, the Padres lineup contains three players that have already launched multiple homers in the first seven ballgames.

Starting for San Diego will be Jarred Cosart, making his first start of the campaign. The former Astro and Marlin has fallen considerably since exhibiting notable potential in his rookie season four years ago, and that was especially true last season when he couldn’t pick up a single win across 13 starts with Miami and San Diego. Not only that, but he was saddled with an unpleasant 6.00 ERA and 1.75 WHIP for his troubles.

One of those outings included an assignment at Coors Field last September, in which the Rockies struck the right-hander for five runs on five hits and four walks, ultimately knocking Cosart out of the game in the fourth inning. Colorado’s offense surprisingly has averaged only four runs per game through the first week, but expect them to return to their normal output beginning tonight. At the very least, we should get one crooked number on the scoreboard, which will hopefully be enough to propel this over.

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