The Montreal Canadiens enter the NHL playoffs in search of their first Stanley Cup since 1993.
The Montreal Canadiens are the NHL’s most storied franchise. The Canadiens have won a record 24 Stanley Cups, but have won brought one back to Quebec since 1993.
In the regular season, Montreal cruised to an Atlantic division title. With just two games remaining the Canadiens have a 46-25-9 record. With the stacked Metropolitan division, Montreal could have an easier trip to the Stanley Cup than other teams in the East. The Canadiens have a difficult matchup in the first round against the New York Rangers.
However, if they get past the Rangers they should make it to the Eastern Conference Final. Thanks to the NHL’s playoff format the Canadiens will avoid playing Pittsburgh, Columbus or Washington in the Eastern Conference Semi-Final and play a much weaker team from the Atlantic division.
Why they can win
If the Canadiens are going to win the Stanley Cup it is going to behind the play of Carey Price. The Montreal goalie has the ability to steal any game on any night for the Canadiens. Price had a down year for Montreal this season, but that is because he has set the bar so high over the past three seasons. However, a down year for Price is still better than most goalies’ best years.
General Manager Marc Bergevin was vilified over the summer for trading fan favorite P.K. Subban to Nashville for Shea Weber. However, in the playoff’s Bergevin’s decision will be celebrated. In the playoffs, the teams who make the fewest mistakes win. Subban is a dynamic offensive player, but he is also prone to the occasional defensive lapse. Weber is one of the steadiest and most difficult defenders to play against. Weber has the ability to shut down opposing teams’ top lines and physically punish them the way Subban can not.
In addition to Weber, the Canadiens rely on their top five defensemen. Andrei Markov, Jeff Petry, Alexi Emelin and Nathan Beaulieu are all averaging over 19 minutes per game. The Canadiens can win because they are the third best team in the league in goals against. The saying is defense wins championship, and that is certainly how Montreal will win the Stanley Cup.
Why they can’t win
The argument against winning the Stanley Cup is the Canadiens lack of offensive stars. Among the Eastern Conference playoff teams, only Ottawa has scored fewer goals than the Canadiens.
Captain Max Pacioretty and Paul Byron are the only players on the Canadiens to score more than 20 goals this season. However, it is players like Byron who likely disappear in the playoffs. Prior to this season, Byron’s career best was 11 goals. This season, Byron has scored 22 goals. Eventually, the hot streak will run out for Byron.
In the playoffs, other teams will match their top defensive pairing against Pacioretty’s line every single shift with no exception. If Montreal does not find other goalscoring options, they will be in tough to score goals. Price is a great goalie, but the Canadiens can not expect to win every game 1-0.
If the Canadiens do not get scoring from the second or third line, there is a very real possibility that they could be eliminated by Henrik Lundqvist and the New York in the first round.
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X-Factor
It may be the obvious choice, but the Canadiens’ x-factor is Carey Price. Last season the Canadiens were one of the best teams in the NHL and leading their division. Then Price suffered a season-ending knee injury. Without Price, the Canadiens collapsed and missed the playoffs. The Canadiens goalie is arguably the best goalie in the league. If they are going to win the Stanley Cup, it is going to be behind Price staying on his head and steal a few games for Montreal. If the Canadiens are going to win the Stanley Cup, there is a good chance that Carey Price becomes the 17th goalie to win the Conn Smythe Trophy.
Prediction
The Canadiens and Rangers first round series goes to game seven. In game seven, Price shutouts the Rangers and the Canadiens win 2-0. In the second round, Montreal faces one of their arch rivals, the Boston Bruins The series with the Bruins goes six games, with Montreal eliminating the Bruins at the TD Garden.
However, the Canadiens’ Stanley Cup playoff run ends in the conference finals. The Canadiens are unable to score enough goals to get past the Washington Capitals. Washington wins the series in six games to advance to the Stanley Cup final.