Atletico Madrid will meet Leicester in the quarterfinals of the Champions League, starting April 12 in Madrid. Here’s what to expect during the tie.
In the most lopsided tie of the Champions League quarterfinals, Atletico Madrid, finalist in this competition in two of the past three years, face Leicester, making their first ever appearance in the tournament after a miracle title run in the Premier League last season.
How did they get here?
The Foxes have had a remarkable year in Europe, winning Group G and knocking out Sevilla in the round of 16. After their miraculous Premier League title campaign last season, Leicester have struggled domestically, but their good form has continued in European competition.
Atletico Madrid, though, tower over every other opponent Leicester have seen in the run-up to this Champions League quarterfinal
Last year’s runners-up, Atletico are probably as good a candidate as any to put a stop to Leicester’s miracle run. They, too, came out on top in the group stage, beating German champions Bayern Munich in the process. They knocked off Bayer Leverkusen in the round of 16 en route to their date with Leicester.
Los Rojiblancos are in the midst of a decent, but not spectacular season in La Liga. They sit third, five points behind second-place Barcelona and 10 back of their crosstown rivals Real Madrid. Atletico haven’t fared well against the other Spanish giants, failing to win in any competition this year against either Barca or Real.
Both Leicester and Atletico, though, are hoping to hang onto the good form they’ve found in recent weeks. The Foxes saw their win streak under Craig Shakespeare snapped at six at the weekend by Everton, but they seemed understandably to have an eye on the first leg against Atletico. Diego Simeone’s side, meanwhile, had won four league matches in a row before coming back to draw against Real at the weekend.
It seems fair to say Atletico have far more to lose from this quarterfinal tie. Finalists in two of the last three years, they’re hoping to finally win the trophy this season. Losing here would be disastrous.
Leicester, on the other hand, were not expected even to make it this far in the Champions League. After advancing from their group and winning a knockout matchup, they’ve already done more than enough to consider this European campaign a success.
That said, they seem to have developed a taste for playing spoiler. With the pressure off, they have nothing to lose by playing an aggressive game.
How will they play?
Atletico are sure to have the lion’s share of possession through both legs of this tie. They’re a team that typically likes to move the ball around in the opponent’s half, so Leicester may need to rely on the counter-attack, especially in the first leg at the Vicente Calderón. Atletico don’t often take huge risks in the attacking third, though, so if they do leave themselves exposed, it won’t be for very long.
Key to Leicester’s success on the counter will be the midfield, where players like Danny Drinkwater will need to be defensively sound and move the ball quickly ahead to Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy, both of whom are capable finishers. Felipe Luis and his elite tackling ability will be called upon to break up those sorts of attacks for Los Colchoneros.
Since Shakespeare took over at Leicester, they’ve returned to the counter that worked very well for them last season. They struggled earlier this year, partly because they tried to play a more attack-minded game, but their form seems to have returned now that the counter is once again central to their tactics.
Simeone’s narrow 4-4-2 formation at Atletico forces all his players to contribute defensively, making them a very stingy team to break down on the counter. Any Leicester attack will need to be fast, and finishing will be crucial, because they aren’t likely to get many chances.
Going the other way, Atletico have a world-class center forward at their disposal in Antoine Griezmann. He can score from just about anywhere around the 18-yard box, and he and Kevin Gameiro play off each other excellently in dangerous areas.
Atletico have a tendency to attack down the left flank, with Yannick Carrasco often the one to cut inside and look for Griezmann.
Next: Champions League QF preview: Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid
Prediction
Leicester and Atletico Madrid have, surprisingly enough, met before. In both the 1961 Cup-Winners Cup and the 1997 UEFA Cup, the Foxes have seen first-round elimination at the hands of Atletico.
This time, Leicester find themselves once again the underdogs. Nonetheless, they’ve been a thorn in a side of all the biggest clubs in England, so they can’t be ruled out against a Spanish giant either. All predictions are effectively worthless with Leicester involved, as they’ve shown time and again over the past two years.
If they’re going to make noise in this tie, it’ll almost certainly be in the second leg at home. Atletico need to put a few goals past Kasper Schmeichel in the first match, because Leicester have been a much stronger team at the King Power Stadium recently. In fact, 27 of their 33 points in the Premier League have come at home this year.
At the end of the day, this probably is Atletico’s quarterfinal to lose. Still, God knows Leicester have proven everyone wrong before. It does seem pretty likely that the miracle run ends here, but then again, the odds of them winning on aggregate from two matches are undeniably better than the odds they had of winning the Premier League.
Atletico Madrid 5-2 Leicester