MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus April 11 Main Slate
By Matt Rogers
Welcome back to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column. This is the Tuesday, April 11th edition. For Tuesday, we’ll only focus this article on the MLB FanDuel MAIN slate of games only. Our goal is to find top pitching plays along with mid-range and cheap value options. Also, we’ll discuss pitchers to avoid in your lineup, or focus on for hitting. Evaluating pitchers is a vital component to building your MLB FanDuel lineup for a big pay-day.
For Tuesday’s Main slate, there are ten games to pick through, or 20 different starting pitchers. Many of the starting pitchers tonight are in the middle part of their team’s rotation. So there are several top play options, and plenty of value options.
After last week’s results, it may be easier to identify some of the best options. However, one game of data can set you up for a trap-play in your lineup. So we need to keep a wider perspective when making our choices. Here’s a look at the list of games we’re target, along with the players we’ll discuss in bold:
Lance Lynn at Gio Gonzalez (7:05pm ET)
Rookie Davis at Jameson Taillon (7:05pm ET)
Dylan Bundy at Drew Pomeranz (7:10pm ET)
Wily Peralta at J.A. Happ (7:07pm ET)
Jered Weaver at Antonio Sanzatela (8:40pm ET)
Let’s start by looking at our top scoring MLB FanDuel pitcher for Tuesday…
Next: Top Scoring Pitchers
Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitchers
Cole Hamels ($9,500) and Matt Harvey ($8,700) are always attractive options considering their history. But Hamels strikeout ratio is unimpressive lately, and he’s giving up more average runs per game than he can for a quality start. Also, Cole is pitching in Anaheim against an Angels lineup which has top five offensive value so far this season. Hamels is a heavy fade, and I’d avoid the Angels lineup as well.
Harvey had a great start to the season, only giving up two runs in 6.2 innings, earning a quality start while only giving up three hits and avoiding walks. But Matt only had four strikeouts. And Harvey is facing a Phillies lineup who’s surprisingly earned a top ten spot in offensive value to start the season. Harvey and the Phillies are also a fade for tonight.
With Samardzija pitching against the hottest lineup in baseball, and Happ struggling to keep the ball in the park, we’re now looking at Gio Gonzalez ($8,900) and Jameson Taillon ($8,000) as the top two MLB FanDuel pitching picks for Tuesday night.
Gonzalez opened the season against the Miami Marlins piling up 43 MLB FanDuel points, including a quality start. Gio gave up seven hits to a decent Marlins offense, including a red-hot Reamluto at catcher. But Gonzalez also had seven strikeouts in six innings, did not give up a run, and only had one walk. He was also able to keep his pitch-count below 100 (at 95).
The Cardinals have struggled to hit since the start of the season. St. Louis is 26th among 30 teams in run productivity so far this year. They’re even worse against RHP, Gio is a lefty. But it’s still a great match up. So a great start, plus a great match up on home field, leads us to love Gonzalez tonight.
The only difference between Gonzalez and Taillon is strikeout and walk ratio. Jameson is likely to walk a batter or two more than Gio. And Taillon’s strikeout ratio is half of Gio’s. But Taillon is also pitching at home, where he has a better track-record. He’s worth a consideration if you’re fading Gio.
Next: Mid-Range Salary Value
Mid-Range Salary Value
Last week, Dylan Bundy ($7,200) was considered our top value pitcher. After a stellar start against the Toronto Blue Jays, in Baltimore, Bundy is a little more expensive this week. Bundy is one of only three starting pitchers today who already has a win. In seven innings against the Blue Jays, Dylan gave up only four hits, had no walks, and struck out eight. With a quality start as a cherry on top, Bundy dropped an awesome 52 MLB FanDuel points.
The Blue Jays currently have the second worst run productivity in baseball. So it’s possible Bundy looked great last week because the Blue Jays offense is having a terrible start. Which is surprising considering the Jays were a top ten offense last year.
Tonight, the Orioles are in Boston, facing the Red Sox. This match up should be more difficult because Bundy will be in Boston, but also because the Red Sox offense has been more productive than the Blue Jays, 14th in the majors in run productivity. The Red Sox also have a low 16.8% strikeout ratio. Still, while Dylan may not land at 52 MLB FanDuel points tonight, he’s likely to continue to pitch well and may at least get around 30 points. That’s not a bad result for only $7.2K.
Next: Pitching Value
Pitching Value
While Bundy was our value pick last week, I’ll admit we tagged Wily Peralta ($6,400) as an offensive target, expecting Peralta to have a terrible outcome giving up multiple home runs, and runs. However, Wily had a surprisingly solid outing. In five innings, Peralta only gave up three hits, one walk, and did not give up a run. Peralta, along with Bundy and Harvey, is one of few pitchers tonight who already has a win for the 2017 season. Along with a strikeout per inning, Wily was able to pile up 36 MLB FanDuel points.
Remember how we talked about Bundy’s success against the Blue Jays last week? Well tonight it’s Peralta’s turn. The only rub is Wily is pitching in Toronto tonight, not Milwaukee. So there is some added risk if the Blue Jays have an offensive light bulb turn on in Toronto. Still, with the Jays struggling significantly at the plate, it’s worth targeting them using a hot pitcher. Peralta is a sneaky $6.4K value pick for tonight.
Next: Offensive Pitching Target
Offensive Pitching Target
The young Cincinnati Reds starter Rookie Davis ($4,900) would be a tremendous value play if his pitching wasn’t so horrendous to start his career. The 23-year-old, 14th round draft pick of the Yankees in the 2011 draft, faced the Phillies last week for only three innings. Davis gave five hits, two home runs, and four earned runs. Rookie was able to strike out four in three innings, but he also walked two. So while he has some velocity, he’s getting shelled.
Tonight Davis is facing a Pirates lineup who’s struggled with run production so far this season. But the Pirates also have the 3rd lowest strikeout ratio, only 17.6%. So, one of Davis’ few advantages is immediately eliminated. Also, the Pirates are playing at home, where they have a favorable match up against RHP’s, like Rookie. With a poor offensive start this season, the Pirates are cheap.
Jered Weaver ($5,500) is also a cheap option at pitcher tonight, but also a heavy fade. Weaver, a 34-year-old veteran, had a poor start to the season. Weaver lasted longer than Davis, five innings But Jered only struck out two hitters, walked three, gave up two home runs, and four earned runs on five hits. And tonight, Weaver is pitching in Colorado. Yikes! This is a GREAT match up for the Rockies.
The Rockies have struggled with run productivity this season, their pitching saving the 5-3 record to start. And they only had three runs last night, at home against the Padres. But tonight, expect the Rockies bats to wake up. Weaver is a home run risk in a home run friendly park. The Rockies will be expensive, again, tonight, but if you add the Pirates stack with the Rockies stack, they’re suddenly very affordable.
Next: Fantasy Baseball Week 2 Two-Start Pitchers
Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel. You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game. But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours before a game. So always stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup. Follow us on twitter, @fantasycpr, for updates as we get closer to lineup lock time. Good Luck today FanDuelers!