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MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Wright vs. Jimenez from Fenway Park could be inviting for over bettors

By Matt Zylbert

Jun 7, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez (31) throws a pitch in the second inning against the Kansas City Royals at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles won 9-1. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 7, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez (31) throws a pitch in the second inning against the Kansas City Royals at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles won 9-1. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Red Sox and Orioles resume their three-game set from Fenway Park this evening, with a pitching matchup that could yield enough runs for an over.

Unfortunately, the string of bad luck continued last night, as Skaggs vs Hamels Under 8 was cruising towards a victory, being 5-1 going into the bottom of the eighth. However, the Angels were able to pick up a run there, and despite then trailing 5-2 in the bottom of the ninth, they managed to pull off a ridiculous comeback against closer Sam Dyson, literally sinking our bet while down to their final strike.

Suffice to say, this is about the worst luck you can have to start a new campaign. Let’s see if we can snap that streak tonight.

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 3-6-2, -350

Yesterday’s Result: Skaggs vs Hamels Under 8 (Loss)

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

Ubaldo Jimenez vs Steven Wright

OVER 9.5 (-110) (via OddsShark)

It’s common knowledge that the O’s and Red Sox boast two of the best slugging lineups around, but with a total this high, we’re really going to need these offenses clicking, which is hopefully the case with the starting pitching matchup on tap for tonight.

Both starters will be making their second start of the year, with each right-hander coming off a season debut that could have been better. Ubaldo Jimenez, for instance, didn’t make it out of the fifth inning in his first outing, as the Yankees tagged him for five runs in 4 1/3 innings, even taking him deep twice as well. The knuckleballer Steven Wright, meanwhile, managed to pitch into the seventh at Detroit, but was still responsible for surrendering four runs on seven hits and three walks.

Wright has had some success opposite tonight’s opponent, but the same can’t be said of Jimenez, who struggled in three starts facing the Red Sox a season ago, posting a 5.28 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in those outings.

And while Wright pitched respectably opposite Baltimore, the fact remains that he wasn’t nearly as effective in his home assignments during his first full campaign in 2016, finishing with a 4.54 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 13 outings at hitter-friendly Fenway Park, compared to a 2.09 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 11 starts away from home.

Look for offense to dictate how this second matchup between the two AL East clubs plays out.

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