The Clippers have been one of the most consistent teams in the NBA during the past four years, and that’s exactly their problem.
Since Doc Rivers became head coach, the Clippers have won at least 50 games every season, but have yet to advance to a Western Conference Finals in that time. Five other Western Conference teams have made it that far — the Spurs, Warriors, Grizzlies, Rockets and Thunder. The Clippers on average have won more games than any other team other than the Warriors and Spurs over the last four seasons, and yet the Nets have gone as far in the playoffs during that time.
The reason the Clippers have been so consistent is because they’ve kept their core of Rivers, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford intact. The reason the Clippers haven’t gotten any better is because that core hasn’t evolved. If you had a time machine, and for some reason used it to swap the 2013-14 Clippers in the place of the 2016-17 Clippers, the only difference you would notice is Jordan’s hair.
| LA Clippers Key Stats Between 2013-14 and 2016-17 | |||||||
| Season | Record | Off Rtg | Def Rtg | Net Rtg | 3PA | 3FG% | Pace |
| 2016-17 | 51-31 | 110.1 | 105.8 | 4.2 | 27.4 | 37.50% | 98.32 |
| 2015-16 | 53-29 | 106.5 | 100.9 | 5.5 | 26.7 | 36.40% | 97.97 |
| 2014-15 | 56-26 | 109.8 | 103 | 6.9 | 26.9 | 37.60% | 96.96 |
| 2013-14 | 57-25 | 109.4 | 102.1 | 7.3 | 24 | 35.20% | 98.39 |
Paul, Redick, Jordan and Crawford are what they are. They have all basically reached their ceilings as NBA players. Griffin, on the other hand, was at one time considered a top five player. Now he’s not even in that conversation. Why? Remarkably, it’s not because he’s gotten any worse. His per 36 minute stats between 2013 and 2017 have barely nudged.
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The league, however, has evolved beyond him. Four years ago, Griffin seemed an obvious candidate to join the class of big men who extended their range to beyond the arc and yet he hasn’t. Griffin is averaging more than one 3-pointer per game for the first time this season (1.8) while players like Chris Bosh, Kevin Love, Al Horford and Paul Millsap long ago adopted the 3-pointer.
As the league trends toward taking more 3s, the Clippers stand pat. In 2013-14, the Clippers averaged 2.5 more 3-pointers than the rest of the NBA with 24 per game, per Basketball-Reference. They are taking more 3s this season with 27.4 per game, but they haven’t evolved at the same pace as the rest of the league, now shooting just 0.4 more 3-pointers per game than the league average. The NBA has caught up to the Clippers.
It’s not because they aren’t shooting more 3s that the Clippers have yet to make it to the conference finals, but it is an indication that this team has stubbornly refused to evolve as their competition has passed them by.
Look at the Spurs, for example, one of the few teams with a better record than the Clippers over the last four years. In that time, Gregg Popovich shifted from a Tim Duncan-driven team to a Kawhi Leonard-driven team, reshaped the team’s identity by signing LaMarcus Aldridge and it seems like a new role player emerges as a key cog for the Spurs every season.
Had Popovich been coaching the Clippers, wouldn’t he have shifted the focus from Paul to Griffin two years ago? As The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor wrote before the season, Griffin is one of the best passing bigs to ever play, yet the Clippers refuse to take full advantage of that.
"The Warriors regularly use [Steph] Curry and Klay Thompson to set screens for Draymond Green, which puts stress on the defense and tends to force a switch. The Cavaliers have done the same thing with LeBron James and J.R. Smith or Kyrie Irving.The Clippers should deploy Griffin in the same way. Chris Paul is an elite floor general, but he’s also a knockdown shooter, hitting 42.3 percent on spot-up 3s since 2013, according to SportVU. Rivers could cast CP3 in the screening role; or he could use Jamal Crawford, who sinks 37.4 percent on spot-up 3s; or Austin Rivers, who shoots 38.4 percent; or J.J. Redick who sinks spot-up 3s at a blistering 45.9 percent."
That was written before the season, and Rivers hasn’t changed a darn thing. Griffin’s usage rate is actually at the lowest it’s been in four seasons. Griffin could have been Draymond Green before Draymond Green. He could have been the Clippers’ antidote to LeBron James should they have made the NBA Finals. Instead, Rivers treats him like he’s Enes Kanter.
It’s no surprise that the Warriors leapt them, either. Golden State had the best young core in the NBA and blew it up to sign Kevin Durant. Now, we know the Clippers tried to sign Durant and failed. But think of it this way: Durant went to Golden State because he wanted to play on a team that had an eye to the future, that embraced modern NBA trends like ball movement and 3-point shooting and switching on defense. Had the Clippers adopted that mindset two or three years ago, maybe they would have been more enticing to Durant.
So here we are, 82 games down and the postseason to go, the Clippers again smack-dab in the middle of the playoff standings and seemingly doomed to fall to the Spurs, Warriors or Rockets if not sooner. Once it’s over, the Clippers will enter what could be the most important offseason in team history.
Redick is a free agent, while Paul and Griffin could opt out. That’s most of the Clippers core that could be out in the free agency ether. So do they shake it up just to shake it up? The answer is no. That would be pounding a nail with a screw driver. The issue for the Clippers isn’t talent or personnel. It’s their approach, and it starts with Rivers.
If any change is going to happen, it should be the Clippers trying to find the Steve Kerr to their Mark Jackson. The team needs a change in attitude when it comes to the draft, player development and strategy. The Clippers have won 50 games a season thanks to sheer talent, but the right approach — one that is willing to evolve along with the rest of the league — could take them to the next level.
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This isn’t novel. Coaches are almost always the first out when talented teams underachieve. The Warriors fired Jackson for Kerr. The Rockets fired Kevin McHale (and J.B. Bickerstaff) and hired Mike D’Antoni. The Thunder fired Scott Brooks and hired Billy Donovan, and then the Wizards fired Randy Wittman and hired Brooks.
Somehow, Rivers has avoided enough of the blame. But with new ownership now firmly in place, his seat could be feeling warmer if the Clippers don’t advance in these playoffs.