What Miles Bridges can show NBA teams in his sophomore season

Michigan State’s Miles Bridges was a projected lottery pick in the 2017 NBA Draft and set to enjoy all of the rewards that come with that status, namely a multi-million dollar contract. Instead, the 19-year old announced on Thursday night that he’ll return for his sophomore season in East Lansing.

“I want to finish business here. I want to stay,” he said.

There will obviously be debates about what Bridges is sacrificing in order to return to school. There are clear financial risks involved in his decision, but by all available accounts, he made his own choice. The Vertical’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that nearly everyone around Bridges was telling him to head to the NBA and the freshman’s head coach, Tom Izzo, didn’t encourage him to say. In the end, it’s not our choice and it’s not our place to judge his decision.

As former Oklahoma State guard Marcus Smart said about his return to school for a sophomore season, “These are times you don’t get back. What I’m doing now is priceless.”

What we can do is look at how Bridges’ decision will affect his NBA future with regards to what he might be able to show professional teams in his second season.

The Spartans’ roster will have a different feel to it next season. After bringing in the No. 3 recruiting class in the country last summer, Michigan State will be significantly more experienced. They will also return big man Gavin Schilling for his fifth year and could return another frontcourt player, Ben Carter, for a sixth season of eligibility.

Both players missed 2016-17 with injuries, which forced Izzo to play small ball with Bridges at the power forward spot. With Schilling definitely coming back, Carter potentially coming back, freshman Nick Ward returning and five-star recruit Jaren Jackson coming in, the frontcourt is going to be crowded for 2017-18. Izzo will have to make a decision about whether he wants to stay small or play a more traditional two big lineup that would move Bridges into a small forward role.

That change in positioning could have some significant ramifications for the returning sophomore who thrived in that small ball role. Bridges averaged 21.1 points per 40 minutes as a freshman and became the Spartans’ go-to isolation option. 10.6 percent of his total offensive possessions came on isolation plays, per Synergy Sports, and he was productive in those settings, averaging 0.962 points per possession (80th percentile). Digging a little bit deeper, though, raises some concerns about what will happen if Bridges is guarded by quicker opponents.

Against bigger power forwards, Bridges did well because they didn’t step out to him at the 3-point line. He averaged 1.368 points per possession (90th percentile) on jumpers without a drive in isolation, per Synergy Sports. He also had plenty of success simply beating them to the rim when they did come out.

However, Bridges struggled when he was cut off and forced to take a jumper off the dribble. He was 0-for-7 shooting off the bounce in isolation situations and while that’s a small sample, broadening it out to all categories does him no favors. Bridges averaged just 0.514 points per possession (14th percentile) on off the dribble jumpers in the half court this season, per Synergy Sports. If he’s forced to play small forward, he’ll likely face defenders who are more comfortable with his speed and can force him into more of those pull up jump shots. It’s an area Bridges needs to improve to make NBA teams comfortable with his ability to create offense for himself.

In a related area, Bridges will have a chance to prove himself. The 19-year old’s ability to shoot from behind the arc will be critical to his offensive success in the NBA. If he can knock down 3s at a reasonable clip, it will allow him to space the floor as a small ball power forward given his defensive versatility on the other end. As a freshman, he made 38.9 percent of his 144 3-point attempts, which is a terrific clip on a pretty high number of attempts for a college season.

The concern is that his free throw shooting didn’t matchup with his 3-point shooting. Bridges shot just 68.5 percent from the charity stripe last season, which is concerning given the predictive power for free throw shooting when it comes to estimating a prospect’s future 3-point percentage. With another season of college basketball, Bridges will have a chance to show NBA teams that his shooting wasn’t a fluke. That’s something that could solidify his draft positioning.

Next: NBA Draft Big Board: Post-Tournament fallout

While we haven’t done any 2018 draft projections, Bridges’ decision to return doesn’t seem to have hurt him initially. DraftExpress moved the 19-year old from a late lottery selection in 2017 into the No. 6 spot for 2018 in their adjustment. It’s a shift that makes sense when you consider that there are fewer wings and combo forwards available in the 2018 draft. Now, though, Bridges will have an extra year to justify the ranking by showing he can play more small forward and consistently connect from 3-point range.