The Wizards enter the playoffs with as much promise and peril as any team. After a long stretch seemingly headed for the three-seed, they fell to fourth, where fortune smiled upon them: The Wizards host the sunsetting Hawks instead of the newborn star Bucks.
In the second round they’re due to face the Batman Celtics (definitely impressive, but definitely human) rather than the Superman Cavaliers (only one Superman, but one’s all it takes). John Wall’s status for Game 1 vs. Atlanta is in question due to a sore quadriceps, but it’s a sign of where this team has ascended that even if their best player misses the opening of the playoffs, they’re expected to make noise. If Wall recovers quickly, it could be a lot of noise. More than most teams, the Wizards have almost every possible road open before them: They could dark horse their way to the NBA Finals, fight nobly but come up short these next few years and gently fade away or turn over half the roster and never again be who and what they are now.
The playoffs are a lotta late-and-close, and Washington is as good in those games as anyone, tying Boston for the most late-and-close wins (32). Stats can be flukey, but a closer look suggest this success is sustainable, and it begins in the backcourt. They’re the only team in the East besides Cleveland with two players scoring 23+ points a game (Wall and Bradley Beal), yet their brilliance is complemented by balance with six Wizards averaging double-figures in scoring. They’re the third-best shooting team in the league, top-10 in field goal percentage for 2-pointers and 3-pointers, and top-10 in assists. Defense? Washington is second in steals, third in forcing turnovers, and ninth in defensive rebounding and blocked shots.
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They work well together. They move the ball. They have stars who shine when the offense sputters. They can shoot. They disrupt opponents’ offenses on the perimeter and snuff shots down low. When they force a miss, they corral it. There’s size, speed and length. This is a dangerous team.
It’s been some time since the Wizards looked “dangerous.” In fact, the Wizards, technically, have never looked dangerous. After a steady incline in recent seasons under Randy Wittman, last year’s team was expected to take the next step. But they stumbled, missing the playoffs, and Wittman was fired. Beal dealt with a recurring stress reaction in his lower right leg, then he and Wall publicly confessed a “tendency to dislike each other.” This year they lost eight of their first 10 games. Same old Wizards.
Only they weren’t. Led by a healthy and united Wall and Beal, plus an improved defense and deeper bench under new head coach Scott Brooks, Washington turned things around, finishing with their best record in nearly 40 years and winning their first division title since 1979. How long ago is 1979? The NBA superpowers of that time — or their version of the Cavaliers and Warriors — were the Washington Bullets and the Seattle Supersonics, a team that, because humans are fallible, no longer exists. Enjoy the moment, Wizard fans. You’ve come a long way, baby.
But a moment is just that: a moment. As soon as you’re aware it’s here, it’s gone. Washington’s moment in the sun may be short-lived. Otto Porter, Jr., who’s just 23 and top-five on the team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, is a restricted free-agent this summer. Teams like Brooklyn and Phoenix, with money to spend and minutes to give, are likely to make a strong push. Last summer the Nets signed Portland’s Allan Crabbe to a $75 million offer sheet. Porter’s numbers and upside are more promising than Crabbe’s. He’s getting paid by somebody.
The Wizards may feel they have no choice but to re-up Porter. Nearly half the roster could be gone this offseason, and the team’s first round pick belongs to Brooklyn courtesy of the Bojan Bogdanovic deal. Even if Washington re-signs Porter and keeps the roster relatively intact, that would push them over the luxury tax and limit their financial flexibility going forward. Wall has two years left on a contract he hasn’t shied away from complaining about. Are the Wizards confident this group can advance farther going forward? What’s their ultimate upside? Are they content with a team that wins 50ish games a year for a couple years but doesn’t have the horses to contend for a title?
It’s not an easy question to answer. Every NBA city has a generation (often more than one) of fans whose “glory days” are memories of teams that never won it all, or never even threatened to. Success assumes many forms, and it’s tough giving up something tangible for dreams that may never come. Ask people in New York, Orlando or Sacramento what they’d give to be in Washington’s position right now. Even before these playoffs begin, D.C. is showing them love.
But time may already be running out on this era in D.C. The Wizards are the favorite to win their division next year, but after that? LeBron James remains the king of the East until someone overthrows him. The top-seeded Celtics have the best odds of adding a superstar in this year’s draft. The Bucks are rising. Washington enters the playoffs with as clear a path as they could have asked for to the conference finals, in a year when the Cavaliers, the East’s heavyweight champ, look sluggish and sated after breaking Cleveland’s half-century hex.
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The Wizards did a lot to get where they are now. They’ve drafted well and managed to stay fairly young; among their starting five plus improving sixth man Kelly Oubre, only Marcin Gortat is older than 27. They’ve earned this window, and make no mistake: To even be discussing a window with this team shows how far they’ve come. Now we’ll see what they do with it. Moments are so commonplace we often lose sight of them. But some moments rise above. Washington’s waited a long time to get somewhere. Hopefully for the team and their fans, the here-and-now doesn’t end anytime soon.