DraftKings NBA Picks April 15

Finally! The NBA Playoffs are here, and we can play DraftKings NBA again! No more tanking. No more resting players. Teams are finally trying again, so it will have the feel of a December slate instead of April. Those were brutal!

Point Guards

Best Bets:

Kyrie Irving ($7,800): It’s playoff time, so it’s Kyrie time! He always seems to bump it up a notch in the playoffs. The Cavs created all sorts of controversy with their horrible finish, but maybe it was just to give themselves some motivation. We will see how them come out against the Pacers. At any rate, Irving averaged 41.8 DraftKings points per game against Indiana this year. That makes him over 5x value before you factor in the bump he gets for the playoffs.

Jeff Teague ($7,300): Chris Paul struggled against Utah this year, and Kyle Lowry wasn’t near where he needed to be to hit value against the Bucks. That leaves Teague, who averaged even better than Kyrie against the Cavs in the regular season! Teague picked up 43.9 DraftKings points per game against Cleveland this year. Who will come up big in the playoffs?

Honorable Mention:

Mike Conley ($7,200): Conley averaged 35.4 DraftKings points per game against the Spurs during the regular season, which puts him right around 5x value. It remains to be seen how the Spurs will manage minutes in the playoffs. I would imagine that they would be roughly the same unless the Spurs are in trouble. For the first game at least, Conley is a relatively safe option.

Malcolm Brogdon ($5,000): His season numbers against Toronto aren’t great, nor are they indicative of how much he played down the stretch. The point guard job is clearly Brogdon’s right now whereas it wasn’t in half of the meetings earlier in the year. Brogdon looks like a solid value with his price point here.

Dark Horses:

Cory Joseph ($3,500): Joseph is still going to play at least half the game, even in the playoffs. He is the leader of the second unit, and he averaged 23.6 DraftKings points per game against the Bucks this year. Two of those games were with Lowry out, but he should still be over 5x value with his normal minutes load.

Patty Mills ($3,500): Tony Parker still sees more minutes, but Mills is the better offensive player, which makes him the better choice for fantasy purposes. Mills averaged 16.8 DraftKings points per game against Memphis this year, which leaves him close to 5x value. Parker costs $700 more, but averages less than two DraftKings points more.

My picks: Teague(PG)

Shooting Guards

Best Bet:

DeMar DeRozan ($8,000): Pickings are very slim at shooting guard for the first day of the playoffs. DeRozan was well under value (32.8 DraftKings points per game against the Heat in three games) against Miami, but he will outscore everyone else at the position. Probably by a pretty large margin. Do you want to pay up for that?

Honorable Mention:

Joe Ingles ($4,500): Rodney Hood struggled with his shot against the Clippers in every meeting this year. Hood still has the upside, as he has shown the ability to go off at any time, but Ingles is the safer play. He wont start, but he will still see plenty of minutes on the court. Ingles has worked his way into the Utah rotation, and is a much safer bet to reach value than Hood.

Monta Ellis ($4,300): Ellis has been everything but consistent this year. However, against the Cavs he averaged 25.8 DraftKings points per game in four games this year. His scoring is still off and on, but since he has joined the starting lineup, he has picked up more steals and blocks. That helps keep his floor at a level where we don’t mind using him.

Dark Horses:

J.R. Smith ($3,900): Smith only played one game against Indiana this year because of injuries, but he picked up 34.3 DraftKings points in that one. Of course, Kyle Korver is now part of the rotation which he wasn’t when Smith was healthy, but maybe that takes away ten points of production. Smith should still be well above 5x value.

C.J. Miles ($3,200): Miles’s production hasn’t been consistent for most of the year, but he did average 24.5 DraftKings points per game against the Cavs this year. He shot an impressive 62% from the floor and 56% from beyond the arc against Cleveland this year. That is a recipe for well above value.

My pick: Ellis(SG), Smith(G), Miles(UTIL)

Small Forwards

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($10,800): The playoffs seem to wake the sleeping giant, which is mostly what LeBron has been this year. He averaged 60.1 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Pacers this year. Expect something in that range or better today. He is worth paying the premium for.

Paul George ($9,800): George’s price is up over $1000 from the last time he played the Cavs. George carried the Pacers down the stretch. That means he will be less of a bargain tonight. However, George still averaged 50.2 DraftKings points in four games against Cleveland this year. He is a suitable pivot from the top options.

Honorable Mention:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,200): Giannis has missed value more often than not, especially when his price has soared to five figures. However, his upside is as good or better than anyone else. He averaged 49.2 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Raptors this year. He will at least be close to 5x value, and he always has the potential for more.

Kawhi Leonard ($8,500): It’s easy to overlook Kawhi because he is playing a very good defensive team in the Grizzlies. However, Leonard has averaged 44.7 DraftKings points per game in three games against Memphis this season. Leonard should have the benefit of low ownership with so many other elite options at SF tonight. He could be a sneaky play.

Dark Horses:

P.J. Tucker ($3,400): Tucker only played two games against Milwaukee this year after coming over via trade in February, but he picked up 52.5 DraftKings points in those two games. Tucker is in there mostly for his defensive chops, but he can factor in the offense if needed. He looks like a great value play at this price.

Vince Carter ($3,400): Carter fits the mold of the geriatric Spurs better than Memphis it would seem, but Carter has been a big part of the Memphis rotation for much of the year now. He averaged 19.6 DraftKings points per game in the four games against the Spurs. Carter should at least come close to 6x value.

My Pick: James(SF), George(F)

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

Kevin Love ($7,900): Love played in three games against the Pacers this year. He averaged 41.2 DraftKings points per game in those games. Love seems to have settled in as an integral part of the Cavs now whereas he didn’t for long stretches last season. Will that make a difference in the playoffs? If so, he could be an even greater value in DFS.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,200): LMA averaged 35.1 DraftKings points per game in four tilts against Memphis this year. With him priced this low, Aldridge could be a huge bargain as long as he takes it to the Grizzlies like he has so far.

Honorable Mention:

Blake Griffin ($7,700): Griffin has the talent to give any team problems, but Utah has held him mostly in check this year. Griffin has averaged 36.4 DraftKings points in four games against the Jazz this year. While he could come up bigger in the playoffs, it seems like Love or Aldridge are safer bets.

Serge Ibaka ($5,300): It is tough to count on Ibaka because of his inconsistent stat lines that plagued him in Orlando and have continued North of the border. He has managed 32.3 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Bucks this year, but Giannis wasn’t playing power forward in all of those games. Having a guy of Ibaka’s abilities this low makes him an enticing play to save money for a stud or two.

Dark Horses:

Zach Randolph ($5,200): Randolph has averaged 29.4 DraftKings points in four games against the Spurs this year. He is down in this section because Randolph doesn’t start. There isn’t a ton of upside to using Randolph, but he is about as consistent as they get.

Michael Beasley ($3,100): Beasley had a nice game with his spot start on the last day of the season. He wont produce like that again, but his ability to score in bunches could be called upon if Milwaukee needs it at some point in this game. There is a lot of risk associated with this, but we all know that veteran bench players can come up huge during playoff season.

My pick: Aldridge(PF)

Center

Best Bets:

Rudy Gobert ($8,300): I like Gobert, but I don’t like the matchup. In fact, only one center is averaging above 5x value against their first round opponents. It’s not Gobert, whose average sits at 34.4 DraftKings points in the four meetings. This is much like shooting guard, where there isn’t really a strong option. That said, Gobert is the most likely to outscore everyone else at the position.

Marc Gasol ($7,000): Gasol’s average is at 30.2 against the Spurs. Again, that is below average, but not that far below. It’s more reliable than Gobert’s average against the Clippers. Gasol still doesn’t have quite the upside that Gobert does. You are paying for potential if you use Gobert. Not that there is anything wrong with that.

Honorable Mention:

Myles Turner ($6,500): Turner has not been very consistent this year, but his 25.8 DraftKings point average against Cleveland is pretty good. Not really for his price though. The first game or two will tell more about how this series will be played. I may trust Turner further down the road, but it’s hard to right now.

Jonas Valanciunas ($5,500): Valanciunas only averaged 24.8 DraftKings points per game against Milwaukee this year, but early in the season Valanciunas was often not given the minutes he is now. Milwaukee has been awful against opposing centers for most of the last two months. Valanciunas should be able to take advantage of that.

Dark Horses:

Greg Monroe ($4,800): Like Randolph, Monroe doesn’t start which does limit his upside. However, he is a constant producer around 30 DraftKings points per game. I doubt Toronto holds him under that. The averages are skewed by Milwaukee’s inconsistent rotations earlier in the season. Monroe may not start, but he will play at least 30 minutes.

Tristan Thompson ($4,500): Thompson is the only one carrying a better than 5x average against his first round opponent. Thompson has averaged 25.8 DraftKings points per game against the Pacers this year. He still isn’t a big part of the offense, but his defense will keep him around this average, making him a pretty good value.

My pick: Thompson(C)

Next: FanDuel Picks and Pivots - NBA Playoffs

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