Welcome to the Saturday, April 15th edition of MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus. For Saturday, we’re going to focus on the MAIN slate of games only, starting after 7:05pm ET. We will discuss the top pitching plays and pitching value options. We’ll also identify pitchers to avoid for your lineup, and target for hitting. We believe evaluating pitchers is a vital part to building your MLB FanDuel lineup for a big pay-day.
The MLB schedule is full this Saturday, with most of the games played earlier in the day. For the MLB FanDuel Main slate, we have five games to pick through, or ten pitchers to review. Tonight, most of the pitching match ups are better for hitting picks. Several of the pitchers tonight are facing hitters who historically have ‘owned’ them. There are a few trap-plays you should avoid, which we’ll discuss. Here’s a look at the MLB FanDuel MAIN slate schedule for tonight:
NYM Jacob deGrom at MIA Adam Conley (7:10pm ET)
SD Clayton Richard at ATL R.A. Dickey (7:10pm ET)
LAA Matt Shoemaker at KC Nathan Karns (7:15pm ET)
ARZ Patrick Corbin at LAD Kenta Maeda (9:10pm ET)
TEX Andrew Cashner at SEA James Paxton (9:10pm ET)
Let’s start by looking at our top MLB FanDuel pitchers to AVOID for Saturday Night…
Next: Top Pitchers to Avoid
Top Pitchers to Avoid
At first glance, Jacob deGrom ($9,800) and James Paxton ($8,200) are attractive pitching options. deGrom is averaging over 30 MLB FanDuel points-per-game after two starts against the Phillies and Braves. Jacob already has two quality starts and has only given up two earned runs in twelve innings.
But there’s a big reason you should fade deGrom tonight, Giancarlo Stanton (OF – $3,600). After a night off, Stanton should be back in the Marlins lineup, and has terrorized deGrom in the past. Giancarlo is hitting .467 in 15 at-bats against Jacob, with a double, three home runs, three walks, and five RBI’s. The Marlins as a team are .310 against deGrom, with only Hechavarria and Ozuna struggling against him. Fade deGrom tonight and make sure you find a way to afford Stanton.
Paxton is having a fantastic start to the season, averaging nine strikeouts per nine innings after two starts. James is yet to give up a run and has only allowed six hits in thirteen innings. That was in two games against a solid Astros lineup. But James is facing a Texas lineup who’s hitting .337 against Paxton. Adrian Beltre (3B – $3,500) is having the most success against Paxton, hitting .538 with a bomb in thirteen at-bats. Fade Paxton and get Beltre into your lineup tonight.
So, who should we pick for Pitcher tonight?
Next: Top Pitcher to Pick
Originally, I avoided looking at Kenta Maeda ($8,600) because of the Diamondbacks hot offensive start. But the D-Backs have plummeted over the last week in run value, now a 101 wRC+, or near the league average after being first in MLB by the end of last week. Also, Maeda is one of the very few pitchers tonight who has a history of dominating the batting lineup he’s facing.
So far this season, Maeda is 1-1 with only nine strikeouts in ten innings. Kenta has yet to achieve a quality start, and has given up nine runs, almost one run per inning. Still, he’s averaging a decent, but not great, 20 MLB FanDuel points-per-game. But tonight, Maeda is facing a D-Backs lineup who’s hitting only .192 against Kenta. That’s terrible! Only Jake Lamb (3B – $3,700) has a good batting history against Maeda, getting seven of the team’s 15 hits in 78 total team at-bats. So while Lamb is a great play, Maeda is likely to get a quality start tonight, along with a low ERA and potential win.
Next: Top Pitching Value
Top Pitching Value
I can’t think of the last time I liked two pitchers in the same game. Maybe the Archer and Porcello match up from Friday. But even in that case, I wanted to fade one. Tonight, Patrick Corbin ($5,500) has a very similar match up against the lineup he’s facing. The only major difference between Corbin and Maeda, is that Corbin is dirt-cheap.
There are so many great hitting options tonight, and you’re likely going to struggle to find enough offensive value to afford Maeda and all of our stud hitters. If that’s the case, consider using Corbin instead.
Yes, we like Maeda and he has a solid chance getting the win tonight. But Corbin won’t be far behind him and this match up is looking like a low-scoring pitching duel. Justin Turner (3B – $3,800) and Yasiel Puig (OF – $3,100) are the only Dodgers with good success against Corbin. They each hit a long-ball against Corbin, and are averaging over .300. But the Dodgers have faced Patrick in 157 at-bats, and have only managed to average .268 against Corbin. Patrick has only given up four home runs in those 157 at-bats, and has 35 K’s, a 22%+ strikeout average.
So while Corbin appears dirt cheap and has a low strikeout ratio so far this year, Patrick is maintaining a low 2017 ERA (1.80), has a low ERA against the Dodgers, and a high strikeout ratio. This is a sneaky value pick, and likely unnoticed by most MLB FanDuel players.
Next: Offensive Pitching Target
Offensive Pitching Target
We already talked about how we like the Marlins against deGrom and Texans against Paxton. But the Marlins and Texans are likely going to be a little expensive tonight. So we have some additional options with higher return on your investment.
Matt Shoemaker ($7,400) is having a rough start to 2017. Shoemaker has a horrendous 7.71 ERA in two starts, and only five strikeouts in 9.1 innings, along with five walks. At some point, I expect Matt to bounce back, but not tonight.
Shoemaker is giving up a .392 batting average against the Royals in 74 at-bats. Hosmer, Orlando, and Cain are each hitting well over .400 against Shoemaker and should be targeted tonight. But the top option from the Royals tonight is Salvador Perez (C – $3,100). Perez has seven hits in eleven at-bats against Matt, with two doubles, a home run, and two RBI’s. Salvador is also off to a hot start this year, and should continue to roll tonight. Stack the Royals tonight. They should be affordable as well.
Clayton Richard ($7,200) had a dominating 49 MLB FanDuel point start against the Dodgers to start the season, but then fall back to earth against the Giants, giving up four runs in six innings and only fanning three hitters. Richard is facing a struggling Braves offense tonight, so some MLB FanDuel players may be lured into picking him, which is a mistake.
Tonight’s Braves lineup has a .329 batting average against Richard. Matt Kemp (OF – $3,600) has the most success against Richard, but is currently on the 10-Day DL. But while Freddie Freeman (1B – $3,800) only faced Clayton seven times, he’s hitting .429 against Richard with a double and four RBI’s. Phillips and Markakis also have some solid success against Richard. So Fade Richard, and at least have Freeman in your lineup tonight.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel. You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game. But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours before a game. So always stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup. Follow us on twitter, @fantasycpr, for updates as we get closer to lineup lock time. Good Luck today FanDuelers!