The return of The Rotation: NBA Playoff preview
During last year’s playoffs, we launched a daily series called The Rotation, collecting some of our favorite stories, large and small, from the previous night’s games. We dabbled with it at The Step Back at the beginning of this season but it really felt like more of a playoff endeavor.
We’re happy to be relaunching for this year’s playoffs and we’re kicking things off with some scattered preview thoughts. Check back in Monday for our roundup of the first weekend of playoff action.
In a matchup of MVP candidates, the referees may play the biggest role
By Brandon Jefferson (@pengriffey_jr)
The first playoff matchup that was confirmed this season was the No. 3 seed Houston Rockets against the No. 6seed Oklahoma City Thunder and what a joyride it is going to be.
All season long James Harden and Russell Westbrook have been dueling in one of the more captivating MVP races the NBA has eve seen. Harden dropped a 50-point triple-double at the Garden, Westbrook’s gotten three of them on the season. Westbrook has drained clutch shot after clutch shot, Harden is solely responsible for the turnaround in Houston from a year ago.
These former teammates will definitely be at their best facing off against each other — the respect between the two is clearly evident on and off the court — but with all eyes on these two stars an even brighter spotlight is going to come on the officials.
Referees have long been the black sheep of basketball and neither Harden or Westbrook are going to make their jobs easier. Both players rank in the top 20 (Harden fifth and Westbrook 20th) in free throws attempted per field goal attempted according to Team Rankings. Harden is a known foul baiter and Westbrook’s all-out style of play naturally leads to collisions. Westbrook gets 27.8 percent of his points there and Harden gets an insane 31.8 percent from the free throw line per NBA.com.
There is a difference in how these two stars draw their fouls. A majority of Westbrook’s free throws come off transition plays where Russ has a free throw frequency of 20.5 percent according to NBA.com. For Harden, he gets a bevy of his fouls as the ball handler in pick-and-rolls, an 18.8 percent free throw frequency according to NBA.com. In isolation plays Harden’s 14.1 percent beats out Westbrook’s 11.3 percent free throw frequency.
The long held belief is that officials let more go uncalled in the postseason than they do during the regular season. Both players have gotten some favorable calls at times, which one will be able to better adjust to a lack of fouls in the postseason?
These teams rank second (Houston) and fourth (Oklahoma City) in Team Rankings’ free throws attempted per offensive play database as of April 10. There will be whistles blown and it will be interesting to see what differences there are in terms of how the teams are officiated in the postseason compared to the regular season where both made a living at the line.
To the victor goes the flails!
Welcome to The Show, kids
By Philip Rossman-Reich (@omagicdaily)
To win a NBA championship, it usually takes years of heartache. Teams have to go through the arduous process of making the Playoffs, winning that first playoff series, overcoming the previous championship contender and winning that first Finals. It can take years for teams to get there, as they go through doubt, hope, despair and every possible emotion. There is usually no straight path and there is always some adversity on the way to the title.
The best players learn early in their careers the playoffs are a different animal. They learn they have to take their game to a different level if they want to succeed. And they find a way to get there.
So this year’s first round will be fun for the new blood entering the playoffs. Especially this crop.
We know Giannis Antetokounmpo went to the Playoffs his rookie year, but he might as well be a different player now. This is his first big chance on the big stage. Antetokounmpo can do everything and the Milwaukee Bucks will need him to do so.
Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward are making their playoff debuts. Both are All-Star-caliber players who can certainly step their games up. Specifically Gobert who will be a dominating force in the paint defensively. Or at least he was in the regular season.
Everyone is waiting for Isaiah Thomas and the Boston Celtics to get out of the first round. Thomas averaged 24.2 points per game last year in the Playoffs. Surely he has an encore with the Celtics as the top seed.
Russell Westbrook will put up crazy numbers, but he will need help. And he will have to rely on Victor Oladipo to step his game up in his first career playoff appearance. There will be plenty of other first timers too who will have to step up and play on the big stage for the first time in their careers.
They may not get deep into the playoffs this year. Many of them may lose in the first round. But these are the seeds of future champions. These are the seeds of future contenders. They have to go through this learning experience and play in the playoffs for the first time in their careers.
It is always fun to get new blood into the playoffs. Here is the new blood. Go get ‘em, youngsters.
Blazers in 6
By Kevin Yeung (@KevinHFY)
Steph, I’m sorry. This has nothing to do with you. Some unwitting media member had the pure moxie to ask Damian Lillard if the Blazers would win “in six or seven,” well knowing what it would lead to. The latest in a rich, deep, truly storied lineage. Blazers in 6.
Like everything else in the culture, we can thank Brandon Jennings for this. Four years ago, he picked the Bucks to win in six games over the LeBron-era Heat. Of course, the Bucks were swept, which is only to be expected of any team whose two best players were Jennings and Monta Ellis. (What a team!)
But consider this: Damian Lillard is Shot-Making Brandon Jennings, and C.J. McCollum his Shot-Making Monta Ellis. Together, they’re Steph Curry By Committee. We can consider the defensive shortcomings of starting two 6-foot-4 guards in the backcourt, but sometimes you only need one of them to catch fire to win a basketball game. And they have two! These odds are looking very favorable over six games, I must say.
Let’s talk about Jusuf Nurkic, too. Jusuf Nurkic is Adriatic Zach Randolph. The Golden State Warriors get enough headaches out of regular, 35-year-old Zach Randolph, and Nurkic is 22 with the determination to prove the world wrong. He hears Nikola Jokic, unicorn, and responds in kind with 35 points in the paint and no names untaken. There are very few players in the NBA who have that kind of bruising, beat-em-up quality in the post that can counter the general math behind small ball. DeMarcus Cousins, for sure, but he’s leaning into the do-it-all category pretty heavily now. Jonas Valanciunas, but his team generally opts for a different style. Enes Kanter, a little. Optimistically, Jahlil Okafor in the future? But Nurkic is real and strong and playing very well, and we love it. We would like to see more of it.
At the time of writing, the latest news on Nurkic is that he’s still “waiting for the green light” after suffering a right leg injury two weeks ago. His original timetable put him on track to return around now; we implore the Blazers to play him. There is nothing I want to see more than Curry and Kevin Durant and, yes, Draymond Green grinded to space dust by Nurkic on the offensive glass.
I don’t love the Warriors, but certainly, I don’t dislike them. (Mostly. It’s just Draymond.) But the words have been spoken, and what must come simply must come. What’s two top-five NBA players to a called shot of six? What’s a god to a non-believer?
Blazers in 6.
Giant steps for the Utah Jazz
By Rory Masterson (@rorymasterson)
For all the hype the San Antonio Spurs get for flying under the radar in seemingly every season, this year’s brand of cool feels like it belongs to another city with only one franchise among the four major North American sports. Home to roughly 200,000 people and embedded between the Wasatch and Oquirrh mountain ranges, Salt Lake City seems an unlikely place to incubate creative genius. Then again, before Louis Armstrong and Duke Ellington got there, what was Harlem but an Anglicized name for a place the Dutch settled out of convenience?
The Utah Jazz won an obscenely quiet 51 games this year, reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2012, when the likes of Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll were bumping in the post. Also on that team was a 21-year-old Gordon Hayward, who this year earned his first All-Star nomination en route to becoming a certifiable star.
Their first round opponents are the Los Angeles Clippers, forever trapped in the wrong place at the wrong time (by the way, if these Clippers break up this summer, feel free to blame DeAndre Jordan for bringing Damian Lillard to Chris Paul’s house every other night and wreaking inexplicable havoc. What were they doing with the paint and glass in Paul’s living room?). Although they have home court in the series, the Clippers are desperate, knowing this may very well be their final ride, and final shot at redemption, together.
Meanwhile, the Jazz are mostly young and don’t have much to lose. Between Hayward’s sharpshooting and Rudy Gobert’s rim protection, Utah has gone from a League Pass darling to a must-watch playoff basketball team. Adding fun to function, their mascot is a bear, literally named Jazz Bear, who rides motorcycles and holds babies.
Hayward’s contract is up this summer. While he’s got a cushy gig in Utah, assuming anything about player loyalty in 2017 is a dangerous game. Still, the first step to showing they can compete was making the playoffs, and the complementary parts are no chopped liver. The Jazz likely won’t win the title – it pays to be first, just ask former residents of Williamsburg or Tim Duncan – but theirs is a milestone group nevertheless. Hopefully this band sticks together for another record or two.