DraftKings Valero Texas Open

Apr 22, 2016; San Antonio, TX, USA; Charley Hoffman, a DraftKings Valero Texas Open stud, watches his drive on the 15th hole during the second round of the 2016 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio – AT&T Oaks Course. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports /

DraftKings Valero Texas Open DFS Preview:

The tour will head to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open, this week. This course will play at 7,433 yards and a par 72. Valero has been around for a while, thus providing us with plenty of facts to work with this week. While 7,433 yards would show that this is a bombers course, it has historically proven to be fairly neutral. This has to do with how certain par 4’s and 5’s are set up at this course, in that approach shots will rely more on wedge shots than long iron play. Driving distance and birdie making are critical for DraftKings’ scoring, but I wouldn’t be ruling out accurate ball strikers.

Weather will play a factor this week, as Texas weather can be fairly unpredictable and change at any moment, at this time of year. Last year, picking the right golfers based on tee times was vital to success. This sentiment will hold true again this week. Make sure to check tee times and weather, up until lineup lock.

We’ll have a much weaker field to work with this week and many of the top end guys could be fatigued due to an increased recent workload. Keep in mind that Matt Kuchar, Adam Hadwin, Daniel Summerhays, and Branden Grace will all be playing this week, after playing all 144 holes at Augusta and Hilton Head.

Recent Form:

Apr 9, 2017; Augusta, GA, USA; Ryan Moore, a potential DraftKings Valero Texas Open stud, hits from the fairway on the 1st hole during the final round of The Masters golf tournament at Augusta National Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports /

Ryan Moore – $10,200

After taking the week off, Ryan Moore enters this week coming from a 9th place finish at the Masters. Moore has seemingly found his game recently, after a missed cut at the Genesis open. Moore is a an exact ball striker, hitting 67.2 % of fairways and has an above average scrambling game, which could be relied on this week.

Other golfers in good recent form: Finau, Steele, Chappell, Koepka, Lee, Bradley, An, Palmer, Percy, Hadwin, List, Kang, Schniederjans,

Course History:

Apr 29, 2016; Avondale, LA, USA; Charlie Hoffman, another potential DraftKings Valero Texas Open stud, hits from the sand on the 18th hole during the continuation of the first round following weather delays for the 2016 Zurich Classic of New Orleans at TPC Louisiana. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports /

Charlie Hoffman – $10,700

I’m still very torn on how heavily we should be weighting course history, if at all, but boy did it work out well for us last week. Luke Donald had elite course history and smashed for us at the RBC. This week Hoffman makes a similar case, with top 20 or better performances in his seven appearances, including three top 10 or better finishes and a win here last year.

I think history like this may be worth playing, but in general, there may be a threshold where course history data turns into noise more than a signal. One thing to keep in mind with Hoffman this week is how much golf he’s played over the last 3 weeks. This will be his fourth tournament in four weeks, and while he did get the weekend off last week after missing the cut, he’s played all four days in each of the other outings.

Other golfers with “Elite” course history: Steele, Summerhays, Baddeley, Palmer, Horschel,

Pricing vs. Odds:

Apr 5, 2017; Augusta, GA, USA; Adam Hadwin, another potential DraftKings Valero Texas Open stud, hits a tee shot on the 12th hole during a practice round at Augusta National GC. Mandatory Credit: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports /

Adam Hadwin – $9100

Is it time for Hadwin’s hot streak to come to an end? I’m extremely hesitant, given that he’s played all 144 holes at both Augusta and Hilton Head. However, there’s no doubt that he’s severely under-priced given his Vegas projection. Hadwin now has a 3.8% implied chance to win this week, which stands out relative to those priced around him. Expect him to be one of the highest on golfers on the slate this weekend.

Other mispriced golfers relative to odds: List, Steele, Finau, Bradley, Summerhays, Taylor

Putting Regression:

Apr 9, 2017; Augusta, GA, USA; Kevin Chappell, a big DraftKings Valero Texas Open stud play, makes a putt on the 2nd green during the final round of The Masters golf tournament at Augusta National Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports /

Kevin Chappell – $9400

Putting tends to carry the most variance of any measurable golf metric. While of course, golfers like Spieth are incredible putters on the “macro”, putting tends to vary on a “micro,” single tournament level. Golfers like Kevin Chappell have been putting poorly of late, but could have a chance to regress back to their given average. Chappell has averaged 30.9 course and field adjusted putts per round over the last six weeks, where he has averaged 29.5 course and field adjusted putts per round over the last 75 weeks. If Chappell can put it together with the putter, he may be poised for a solid weekend.

Other putters to regress: Palmer, Steele, An

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