MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Bound to be one crooked number in Bauer vs. Mejia

Trevor Bauer has been very helpful to over bettors thus far in 2017, and that trend may continue when the Indians and Twins resume their four-game series Wednesday night.

It took a little while but we’re finally back over the .500 plateau — even after a handful of bad beats in the first two weeks compared to exactly zero good breaks thrown our way  — and now would be a good time to keep piling on.

This current 5-1 run has been fueled by mostly unders, but tonight’s slate has me going with an over. Let’s break it down.

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 9-8-2, +20

Yesterday’s Result: Fulmer vs Andriese Under 8 (WIN)

Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins

Trevor Bauer vs Adalberto Mejia

OVER 8.5 (-120) (via OddsShark)

I had the under in the opener of this series on Monday, when Danny Salazar led the way for us opposite Kyle Gibson, but now I foresee an over with tonight’s pitching matchup in game three.

Trevor Bauer is a guy I’ve actually liked since he first broke into the league with the Diamondbacks in 2012, and although it took him a little bit longer than anticipated, I always knew the former No. 3 overall draft pick would ultimately break out, just as he did last year when he went 12-8. That record also doesn’t include his fine work in the postseason to help push Cleveland within one game of a World Series championship.

Flash forward to the present day, though, and Bauer is seemingly all out of sorts. He hasn’t pitched past the sixth inning yet, while allowing at least four runs in each of his two assignments, and while it’s still early, this right-hander is someone capable of letting things snowball because of how emotional he can get on the mound.

That’s exactly what could come into play for him this evening, especially versus a team whom he’s had trouble with. In fact, Bauer made more starts against the Twins than other team last year — four — and the results weren’t pretty, as he compiled an 0-2 record in those outings to go with a 5.48 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. As a result, he might be vulnerable to give up at least a few more runs this evening.

His counterpart in this one, Adalberto Mejia, isn’t someone I’m nearly as familiar with — this will be just the rookie’s third major league start, after all — but based on what I’ve seen and read, he’s not really impressive and could be struck for a crooked number opposite a hard-hitting Indians lineup.

Cleveland had notable success last year facing left-handers, as they recorded the sixth-best batting average (.268) against southpaws in all of baseball. Yes, Mejia is coming off a positive outing his last time out, but this will be a stiff test for the 23-year-old. With that in mind, over looks like the bet here.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres

Zack Greinke vs Jhoulys Chacin

UNDER 7.5 (-120) (via OddsShark)

Without question, the main reason to really get invested in this under has everything to do with former Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke. Yes, he’s coming off a shaky — not to mention humbling — performance when he decisively lost to former co-ace teammate Clayton Kershaw last Friday, but the early signs indicate he’s on the verge of bouncing back from last year’s disappointing first campaign in Arizona.

Before eating a loss at the hands of his old team, Greinke had surrendered two runs or less in each of his first two starts of the campaign, and based on his opponent this evening, he’ll have a good opportunity to churn out something similar.

Throughout his career, the 33-year-old has generally contributed splendid work when toeing the rubber against the Padres, so much so that of any club Greinke has faced 10 or more times, his lowest earned run average versus an opponent has come against San Diego (2.02 ERA). Not only that, but in those 16 starts, he’s 8-1 and also owns a stunning 0.87 WHIP in his meetings with the Friars as well.

Considering the dead-bat lineup San Diego is trotting out tonight, which is also missing Manuel Margot, we have to like Greinke’s chances of continuing his mastery opposite this NL West adversary.

That hopefully means as long as the other starting pitcher going in this one, Jhoulys Chacin, doesn’t get shellacked by the D-backs, we’ll be in good position for this under. It’s very possible that Chacin gets lit up by most offenses, but we’re catching him in a more favorable situation here, as the former Rockies fixture has been significantly better in home starts compared to ones on the road since leaving Colorado.

Last year was a glaring example of this, as Chacin was more than two full runs better at home (3.52 ERA) than away (5.85 ERA), and that’s been the trend thus far, albeit in a much smaller sample size, as the 10-year veteran offered up nothing but zeroes in his lone assignment at Petco Park the first week of the season. A decent effort here should help cement an under victory.

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

Joe Ross vs Julio Teheran

OVER 8.5 (-110) (via OddsShark)

This is already my third over/under this year involving Braves ace Julio Teheran, and after going 1-1 in the first two — which were both under plays — let’s see if we can catch him in an over.

His history against the Nationals could certainly help us out, whom Teheran has registered his highest ERA (4.04) versus any opponent he’s faced in 10 or more starts throughout his career. That’s actually not a bad mark at all, but we’ll take his numbers from last year more into account — the 26-year-old was 0-1 in three starts opposing Washington in 2016 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

He’ll be squaring off with someone making their first start of the campaign, that being Joe Ross, who is coming off a very solid sophomore season in the big leagues. Overall, he’s been everything the Nationals could hope for since debuting two years ago, but this is more about catching him in a spot where he could be beneficiary for the over.

Making his first start a few weeks into the campaign, Ross might not be as sharp as he normally is, and based on his minor league work entering tonight’s assignment, it’s also very possible he’s just not there yet in regards to a rhythm.

In fact, the younger brother of Tyson Ross made a pair of starts in the minors leading up to this evening’s outing, and it may have been detrimental to the right-hander, at least in terms of confidence and momentum, as he issued five runs (four earned) over 9 2/3 total innings. All in all, this matchup looks like it could add up to an over.