The Yankees might be good, Eric Thames is great, and the Pirates are in trouble

The Yankees might be good, the Braves are great SunTrust Park, Eric Thames is red hot, Sam Dyson is ice cold, and the Pirates are in trouble. 

Are the Yankees good?

We’re two full weeks into the 2017 Major League Baseball season. Each team has played more than a dozen games, and though the standings still look a bit funny – especially in the National League with the Reds and Brewers jockeying for first place in the Central and the Diamondbacks and Rockies atop the West – things are beginning to take shape.

It’s pretty safe to say that the Mets and Nationals will fight it out in the East, as everyone expected. Also, though they’re both looking up in the standings at the moment, the Cubs and Dodgers are still the teams to beat in their respective divisions. In American League, the Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers and Astros are all on the right side of .500 so far, and all appear likely to stay in the playoff hunt this year. The Indians, Mariners and Rangers all got off on the wrong foot, but it’s too early to count anyone out just yet.

But, admittedly, it is still too early to come to any concrete determinations about individual clubs – especially those we expected to be in rebuilding mode. Nevertheless, the New York Yankees are an interesting case.

Far from a full tear down and successful rebuild like the ones we’ve seen in Houston and Chicago over the past decade, the Yankees front office injected an exciting group of young players among a core of high-priced veterans, many of whom should be considered past their primes. Few fans and analysts expected to see the team bottom out in 2017, but fewer probably predicted a World Series run.

With the team coming off an 84-win season, most computer projection systems, talking heads and sports books forecasted the Yankees to miss the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons, likely hovering around .500 most of the year, and in danger of posting the first losing season for the franchise since 1992.

It’s only mid-April, but through Monday, New York was riding an eight-game winning streak, and sat with a perfect 7-0 record at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees led the majors in on-base percentage (.353), ranked second in runs scored (67), and fourth in home runs (18), batting average (.267) and slugging (.452). They had also stolen 12 bases, which ranked fifth.

Most of that production came without star catcher Gary Sanchez, who played in just five games before landing on the DL with a strained biceps. Instead, giant human being Aaron Judge has been the driving force offensively and leads the team with four home runs and 11 RBI. Chase Headley (.395/.509/.605) and Starlin Castro (.365/.389/.538) are also off to sizzling starts.

Despite poor early results from Opening Day starter Masahiro Tanaka, the pitching staff has been great as well. Overall, the staff has posted a 3.19 ERA, which ranks fourth in the big leagues. The team sits third in WHIP (1.150) and strikeouts per nine innings (9.7), and leads all of baseball in strikeouts per walk (3.70).

CC Sabathia looks like his old self, having posted a 1.47 ERA through 18.1 innings across three starts. With a 3.44 ERA, 23 strikeouts and just one walk to date, plus a flirtation with a perfect game April 10, Michael Pineda has shown signs of a bounce back. In the bullpen, Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances have been their usual nearly unhittable selves, Adam Warren didn’t allow a base runner until his fifth outing of the season, and no reliever has an ERA above 3.00.

The AL East is arguably the toughest division in baseball from top to bottom, and the AL Wild Card race will be an even deeper field. But given their early success, and the fact that the team will add depth when shortstop Didi Gregorius returns from a shoulder injury in May and Sanchez comes back in three or four weeks, the Yankees should be in the mix. Despite mediocre expectations, the Yankees might actually be good.

First things first

Two weeks ago in this space, we ran down the most of the first events of the season in an Opening Day recap. Today, there’s reason to do it again.

After just two decades at Turner Field, which also hosted the 1996 Summer Olympics, the Atlanta Braves built a new ballpark. The club opened Sun Trust Park Friday, and despite concerns about traffic, parking, and leaving downtown Atlanta for Cobb County, most reports indicate the first night went smoothly.

Understandably, the Braves made an event of the home opener and celebrated the history of the franchise before the game. The Braves unveiled each of the retired numbers in a pregame ceremony, and most of the living former players that were honored were on hand. Dale Murphy (the greatest Atlanta Brave of all-time, don’t @ me), Chipper Jones, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Phil Niekro, and Hank Aaron, who threw out the ceremonial first pitch, were all on hand, as well as Hall of Fame manager Bobby Cox. Greg Maddux, an assistant coach at UNLV, offered a video message.

Former general manager John Schuerholz thanked the fans in attendance, commissioner Rob Manfred also spoke to the crowd, Phillip Phillips offered a rather laid back national anthem, and the team entered on a red carpet.

As for the game itself, Ender Inciarte stole the show, and hogged most of the “firsts” at STP:

• Pitch: Manuel Margot hit a Julio Teheran first-pitch fastball to Inciarte in center, who caught it, and kissed the ball before throwing it back into the infield.
• Base runner: Travis Jankowski, the No. 2 hitter for the Padres, walked on six pitches.
• Hit: Inciarte reached on an infield hit to leadoff the bottom of the first inning.
• Run: Inciarte and Freddie Freeman scored on a double by Nick Markakis to give the Braves a 2-0 lead.
• Home run: Inciarte launched a two-run homer to right field in the bottom of the sixth inning to increase Atlanta’s lead to 5-2.
• Win: The Braves beat the Padres 5-2.
• Walk-off win: A 5-4 win Monday night in which struggling rookie shortstop knocked in the game-running run with a two-out single in the bottom of the ninth. Swanson’s walk-off single capped a four-game sweep of the Padres, and pushed Atlanta’s winning streak to five games.
• Loss: A 3-1 victory for the Nationals in Game 5 of the home slate in which the Braves couldn’t complete a ninth inning comeback.

Second Chances

There may not be a better story through the first two weeks of the 2017 season than Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Eric Thames. A seventh round pick by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2008 first-year player draft, Thames made his big league debut in 2011 as a 24-year-old.

Thames played in 141 games in two seasons with the Blue Jays, and hit .257/.306/.429 with 15 home runs and 48 RBI before being traded to the Seattle Mariners. He lasted just 46 games in Seattle, and hit .243/.288/.365 with three homers.

In June 2013, Thames was traded to the Baltimore Orioles, but spent two months at Triple-A Norfolk and never played a big league game for the O’s. Thames was selected off waivers by the Astros in September 2013, and appeared in a playoff game for Triple-A Oklahoma City, but was released by the team in December, clearing his way to sign with the NC Dinos of the KBO League in Korea.

Thames wasn’t a bad player in the States, but he was never ever to establish himself as an everyday contributor in the major leagues. But he thrived in Korea. In three seasons with the Dinos, Thames hit 124 home runs and drove in 382 runs. He posted an OPS of 1.106 or better all three years, and was named MVP in 2015 when he hit .381/.497/.790 and became the first player in league history to hit 40 or more home runs and steal 40 bases in the same season.

Naturally, such gaudy numbers drew the attention of big league clubs, and Thames signed a three-year free agent deal (plus a fourth-year option) with the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers were confident enough in the 30-year-old left-handed hitter that they allowed incumbent first baseman Chris Carter – who led the National League with 41 home runs in 2016 and played in a league-high 160 games for the club – to walk as a free agent.

So far, the Brewers are pleased with the move. Through his first 13 games this year, Thames leads the major leagues with seven home runs, and tied a franchise record by hitting a long ball in five consecutive games. Through April 17, Thames had the same number of dingers as the entire Toronto Blue Jays roster, and had hit more than the Boston Red Sox, who homered six times through their first 13 games. Overall, the Brewers lead the major leagues with 25 home runs.

Using a more disciplined approach at the plate than he showed in his first MLB stint, Thames also leads the big leagues with a 1.4 fWAR, 1.000 slugging percentage, 1.491 OPS, 287 wRC+, .612 wOBA, 291 OPS+, 47 total bases and 17 runs scored. He leads the NL with a .426 batting average, and has posted a .491 on-base percentage, and also has six doubles and one stolen base.

Most importantly, the Brewers are winning. Milwaukee won six of its last seven games heading into Tuesday night.

Three things we learned

1. The Pirates are in big trouble

With a 6-1 win Sunday, the Pittsburgh Pirates wrapped up a three-game sweep of the World Series champion Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The strong weekend performance was a welcome sight for the Bucs given their four previous games: a three-game sweep at home against the rebuilding Reds (who beat the Pirates by four runs or more in all three contests) and a 4-3 loss in Boston in a makeup game with the Red Sox.

Even with a 2-1 loss to the Cardinals in St. Louis Monday, there was hope that Pittsburgh had overcome a slow start and would be capable of making it back to the postseason after a disappointing 2016 campaign. Then the news hit that All-Star outfielder Starling Marte had been suspended 80 games for a positive PED test.

Last season, Marte exploded offensively with a .311/.362/.456 triple slash, accounted for 48 extra base hits, and stole 47 bases while playing Gold Glove defense. The 28-year old moved into center field this year, which was expected to improve Pittsburgh’s defense by allowing Andrew McCutchen to shift to right. Marte hit .241/.288/.370 with two home runs (including a 10^th inning walk-off winner April 9), and seven RBI in 13 games so far this season, but was a combined 0-for-9 at the plate in his last two appearances.

The loss is another big one for a Pirates offense that was already missing infielder Jung Ho Kang, who had been denied reentry to the United States following an offseason DUI arrest in his native South Korea. As of April 17, Pittsburgh ranked 13^th in the NL in runs scored (47), and 14^th in home runs (10) and slugging percentage (.347).

Consensus top 10 prospect Austin Meadows is a candidate to fill in, but the Pirates are very thin in the outfield. Replacing Marte would be a tough task for anyone, much less a rookie.

With the suspension set to begin immediately, Marte won’t be eligible to return to the lineup until July 18. By that time, the Pirates might be out of the Wild Card hunt, and could be looking to trade McCutchen to jumpstart a rebuild. However, even if the team is able to overachieve through the All-Star Break, Marte wouldn’t be available for the postseason as a result of the suspension.

2. The Rangers closer merry-go round continues

Rangers reliever Sam Dyson was sent to the 10-day disabled list Monday with a right hand contusion, but even if he had been fully healthy, the 28-year old had already lost his grip on the closer’s job.

Dyson had been brilliant in parts of two seasons with the Rangers. After coming over from the Marlins at the 2015 trade deadline, he posted a 1.15 ERA in 31 games. Last season, Dyson had a 2.43 ERA with 38 saves in 70.1 innings across 73 games. Though he didn’t blow hitters away at the same rate baseball’s most dominant closers, Dyson was a steady presence in the ninth inning. Until he wasn’t.

The 2017 season has been a disaster for Dyson thus far. In six appearances, Dyson is 0-3 with a 27.00 ERA and three blown saves. He suffered the injury on a comebacker from Jarrod Dyson in Sunday’s 8-7 loss to the Mariners, in which the right-hander surrendered a 7-6 lead. It was the fourth time this season in which Dyson allowed multiple runs.

And, now that Dyson is out of the role, the Rangers have made an early season change for the third year in a row. Neftali Feliz began the 2015 season in the closer’s role  – a job he held dating back to 2010 – but lost it to Shawn Tolleson. Tolleson held the job coming out of spring training in 2016, but couldn’t hold onto it either. Enter Dyson.

With Dyson hurt and struggling (but mostly because of the struggling), Matt Bush is set to take over the ninth-inning duties in Arlington, though Jeremy Jeffress has closing experience and could be an option, as well as Keone Kela, who was called up to take Dyson’s roster spot.

3. The Blue Jays have a long, hard road to climb

The Toronto Blue Jays entered the season with postseason aspirations, but started 2-10. Thanks to research done by Grant Brisbee of SB Nation, we know the last team to begin a season 2-10 or worse and recover to make it to the postseason was the 2001 Athletics, who finished 102-60. The A’s lost to the New York Yankees in the ALDS.

The predecessor to the Moneyball A’s, Oakland became only the second team to overcome such a poor start. The 1951 Giants started 2-13, and suffered an 11-game losing streak, but closed with a 50-12 record down the stretch to force a three-game playoff series with the Brooklyn Dodgers with the National League pennant on the line. Bobby Thompson’s “shot heard ‘round the world” sent the Giants to the World Series, but the club fell in six games to the crosstown Yankees.

The 2001 A’s are the only team in history to lose eight of their first 10 games and finish the season with 100 or more victories. On the other hand, 20 clubs tumbled to 100 losses or more, most recently the 2013 Marlins.

Tuesday, the Blue Jays lost 8-7 to the Red Sox to fall to 2-11.

Quotable

"“It means everything to me. He is the trailblazer of not only black American players, but of all players of any color of any race outside of Caucasian. My standard quote, regarding Jackson Robinson is, “He took America’s pastime, and made it to a world pastime.” You look how the fans from Japan and Asia were during the WBC. You look at how passionate the Puerto Rican fans were. You look how passionate the Dominican fans were. Jackie Robinson started all of that.”"

– Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Chris Archer, on what Jackie Robinson Day means to him, on ESPN.com.

April 15, 2017 marked the 70th anniversary of Jackie Robinson’s historic debut with the Brooklyn Dodgers. It was also the 14th Jackie Robinson Day across Major League Baseball. As has become customary, every big league player donned Robinson’s retired No. 42 during Saturday’s games.

Naturally, on the day MLB honors Robinson’s breaking the color barrier, the topic of the dwindling African-American population in the sport comes to the forefront. Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports noted that only 7.1 percent of players on 2017 Opening Day rosters were African-American. You have to go all the way back to 1958 to find a lower percentage.

As Archer pointed out, the game is more diverse than ever in an international sense. But the falling number of African Americans in the sport is a troubling trend.

Play of the Week

Mitch Haniger has an early head start in the race to become the American League Rookie of the Year. Acquired from the Diamondbacks over the offseason, Haniger has hit .291/.400/.564 with four home runs and 11 RBI in his first season with the Mariners, and has scored an American League best 12 runs through his first 14 games. He has also flashed some leather.

On Sunday, Haniger drove in four runs for the Mariners in an 8-7 win over the Rangers, and he also robbed Joey Gallo of a home run in the eighth inning, when the game was tied 6-6.

League Leaders

Some baseball fans and writers point to the day in which Mike Trout takes the major league lead in WAR as the day in which the season is officially in full swing, and the small samples that drive unexpected occurrences have sorted themselves out.

Trout won the race to 1.0 WAR at Baseball-Reference last week, and currently leads the majors in bWAR (1.2). However, according to Fangraphs, Eric Thames (1.4 fWAR) tops the chart and Trout (1.0) sits in a tie for fifth behind Freddie Freeman (1.2), Chase Headley (1.1), Chase Headley (1.1) and Francisco Lindor (1.1).

Therefore, technically, it’s still early. With that in mind, we take a look at an advanced stat leaderboard that is sure to calm down by the time Trout takes the WAR lead for good. Isolated power (ISO) is a measure of extra bases per at bat, and is calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage. Simply put, the stat is used to demonstrate power.

Generally speaking, .140 is average, .200 is great and .250 is elite. Anything under .100 is poor. Last season, David Ortiz led the big leagues with a .305 ISO, and Brian Dozier (.278), Khris Davis (.277), Mark Trumbo (.277) and Chris Carter (.277) rounded out the top five. Ortiz hit 38 home runs and the rest of the group had at least 41.

ISO

• Eric Thames, Milwaukee Brewers (.595)
• Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves (.467)
• Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets (.438)
• Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics (.400)
• Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals (.390)

Power pitchers are also fun to note, and one of the best ways a pitcher can show power is through strikeout rate. One of the most self-explanatory metrics available, strikeout rate is simply number of strikeouts a pitcher records divided by the total number of hitters he faces.

Last season, Jose Fernandez led qualified major league starters by striking out 34.3 percent of the hitters he faced. Max Scherzer (31.5) ranked second and Noah Syndergaard (29.3), Justin Verlander (28.1) and Robbie Ray (28.1) followed.

Relief pitchers, and closers in particular, are held to a higher standard because of a smaller workload, and the benefits that come with it. Last year, five relievers posted strikeout rates higher than 40 percent: Andrew Miller (44.7), Dellin Betances (42.1), Kenley Jansen (41.4), Edwin Diaz (40.6) and Aroldis Chapman (40.5).

K% (Qualified starters)

• Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox (36.7)
• Danny Salazer, Cleveland Indians (35.5)
• Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (33.3)
• Michael Pineda, New York Yankees (32.9)
• Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks (31.6)

K% (relievers)

• David Robertson, Chicago White Sox (62.5)
• Chris Devenski, Houston Astros (55.3)
• Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians (52.0)
• Mike Dunn, Colorado Rockies (50.0)
• Brad Brach, Baltimore Orioles (47.6)

GIF of the Week

Sure, Bryce Harper hit two home runs, including a walk-off three-run bomb. But the best thing that happened in Washington Sunday was the Easter Bunny coming off the top rope to level Teddy Roosevelt in the Presidents Race at Nationals Park.

Random MLB Power Rankings

Ranking the top 10 pitcher trade candidates 

1. Chris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Jose Quintana, SP, Chicago White Sox
3. Ervin Santana, SP, Minnesota Twins
4. Sonny Gray, SP, Oakland Athletics
5. Alex Cobb, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
6. Marco Estrada, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
7. Jaime Garcia, SP, Atlanta Braves
8. David Robertson, RP, Chicago White Sox
9. Joaquin Benoit, RP, Philadelphia Phillies
10. Tony Watson, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Archer and Quintana appear to be the most likely No. 1 starters traded this summe, since neither the Rays nor the White Sox are expected to compete for a spot in the postseason and both aces would command a nice haul. However, both teams are patient and won’t panic to dump either pitcher if the right deal doesn’t present itself. Therefore, Archer’s rotation mates Alex Cobb and Jake Odorizzi may be more likely trade candidates, assuming both are healthy in July.

Quintana has been long been linked to the Astros, but Chicago didn’t pull the trigger over the offseason. The Yankees also make sense. Quintana’s teammate, closer David Robertson, is one of the top relief pitchers expected to be available, followed by Phillies closer Joaquin Benoit (who is seemingly traded every July) and Pittsburgh lefty Tony Watson.

Ervin Santana (3-0, 0.41 ERA) has been outstanding thus far, and though the Twins started hot, they aren’t likely to challenge for a Wild Card spot. Sonny Gray hasn’t pitched yet for the A’s, and the 27-year old is coming off a disastrous 2016 campaign, but he’s still likely to be highly sought after this summer once he returns from injury.

Another name to watch is Orioles starter Chris Tillman, who will be a free agent at the end of 2017. If Baltimore fails to over perform its preseason projections and falls out of the postseason race in July, the O’s might try and get some value out of the right-hander instead of letting him walk over the winter.

Useless Info

The Braves 4-0 start at SunTrust Park is the best for a big league team in its new ballpark since Atlanta won each of the first five games at Turner Field in 1997. Even had they improved to 5-0 Tuesday, the club would have had a long way to go to match the franchise record for home wins to start a season. In 1983, the Braves were 10-0 at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium.

Mookie Betts hasn’t struck out yet this season in 123 plate appearances, as of Monday. In fact, Betts hasn’t struck out in 28 regular season games dating back to September 12, ass Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com pointed out.

Next: MLB Power Rankings: top 25 players in baseball

The Chicago Cubs started 6-7 through the first 13 games this season. Last year, the Cubbies didn’t lose their seventh game of the season until May 11.

Cleveland Indians infielder Michael Martinez became the first position player to pitch in a game in 2017 (Christian Betancourt doesn’t count anymore). Martinez tossed a scoreless inning in a 10-4 loss to the White Sox April 13.

With three bombs against the Phillies April 11, Yoenis Cespedes became the first player in New York Mets history to hit three home runs in a game twice. He hit two homers against the Marlins two days later.

Oakland A’s outfielder Rajai Davis has more stolen bases in the 2010s (272) than any other player.

Speaking of Oakland, the A’s were rained out Saturday for the first time since 2014.