MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Upwards trends from Conley, Cahill could fuel under at Petco
By Matt Zylbert
Adam Conley and Trevor Cahill have both looked pretty good through two starts, and each could be of valuable use for an under bet in tonight’s Marlins-Padres series opener.
If I may quote skipper Lou Brown from the Major League movies, “Now we’re starting to roll, boys!” Prior to taking a day off yesterday due to a tough schedule, I posted a 2-0 record (not to mention one rain-out) from Wednesday night’s slate, giving me five straight wins entering today. Let’s just try and keep it going with tonight’s under play.
Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 11-8-2 (57.9%), +220
Wednesday’s Results: Ross vs Teheran Over 8.5 (WIN), Bauer vs Mejia Over 8.5 (Postponed), Greinke vs Chacin Under 7.5 (WIN)
Miami Marlins @ SD Padres
Adam Conley vs Trevor Cahill
UNDER 8 (+100) (via OddsShark)
With both starting pitchers appearing to be trending upwards entering tonight’s assignment, it looks like there could be enough here to register an under in this series opener between the Marlins and Padres from pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
Of course, the more recognizable name from this matchup is Adam Conley, someone who has flashed notable potential for Miami since first debuting in 2015. He’s yet to produce anything higher than a 4.00 ERA, and based on how he’s looked thus far, that streak looks like it should continue through his junior season in the big leagues.
Conley has registered a quality start in each of his first two outings, while impressively holding hitters to a .167 batting average. Both of those efforts came against a solid Mets lineup, too, and he’ll catch a bit of a break here squaring off with San Diego’s weak batting order, who especially struggle against left-handed pitching.
In fact, the Padres have the second-worst batting average opposite southpaws in the National League, clocking in with a putrid .191 mark. Furthermore, in 162 total at-bats, the Friars have struck out 43 times, which is a very favorable ratio for Conley. He figures to extend their woes versus lefties.
Taking the hill for San Diego is veteran Trevor Cahill, who will be making his third start of the campaign. The 29-year-old right-hander came into 2017 as a pretty interesting story, having spent the past few seasons as a reliever on other clubs before getting a shot to start again with the Padres.
He’s had success before as a starter — albeit not in awhile — going back to his days with the Athletics. Cahill once even won 18 ballgames while maintaining a sub-3.00 ERA in 2010.
Technically, he did accomplish that latter feat in each of the past two years while with the Cubs, but that came out of the bullpen. Cahill was confident he could successfully return to a big league rotation again, and through two outings, while the stats may not show it, he has been pretty good.
For instance, Cahill had a no-hitter in Atlanta in his last effort going into the fifth inning before things unraveled on him. He was also very effective in the beginning of his first start at Los Angeles, so he’s close to putting it all together.
Tonight’s assignment for Cahill will also have extra meaning, as this will be his first home start at Petco, and that’s significant because he’s from San Diego, having grown up watching the Padres and attending their games. Thus, this should help ensure he does everything possible in order to put together a more complete outing compared to his prior two.
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In general, I like both guys to keep trending upwards throughout the early portion of the campaign, and in the process, two quality outings on this Friday night should help score us an under win.
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