DeMar DeRozan is coming off of his best season in the NBA. His 27.3 points per game trailed only Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Isaiah Thomas and Anthony Davis in scoring and he got those numbers shooting 46.7 percent from the field. He made only 33 3-pointers — one of the lower marks in his career — but he helped his overall efficiency by attempting 647 free throws and making 84.2 percent of those opportunities. Doing so on a team that finished the season with the same record as the Cavaliers is the main reason some had him on the outside looking in on the most historic MVP race of all time.
That’s why it’s troublesome how much DeRozan has struggled in the opening three games of their first round series against the Bucks. His scoring has dropped to 19.3 points per game and he’s made just 34.0 percent of his attempts from the field. He had one of the worst games of his career in Game 3 when he scored all eight of his points from the free throw line. According to Sports Illustrated‘s Rob Mahoney, it’s been over two years since DeRozan last went a game without scoring a field goal. Without him putting up the 30 points per game he averaged in the regular season, the Raptors don’t have much of a chance against a Bucks team led by Giannis Antetokounmpo.
To understand why DeRozan hasn’t been his normal self in these three games, you need to first look at what Tony Snell has been able to accomplish as his primary defender. With the majority of DeRozan’s offense coming in the form of midrange pull-ups, his height plays a big role in his ability to take and make contested shots in volume because he towers over most shooting guards in the NBA. That, however, is not the case with Snell. While DeRozan is 6-foot-7 with a 6-foot-9 wingspan, Snell measures in at 6-foot-7 with a 6-foot-11 wingspan. Being the same height with a slight advantage in the wingspan department means Snell can bother him a little more than most defenders can when he gets to his spots outside the paint.
Read More: The Pacers have no answer for LeBron James as the roll man
Just watch how Snell shadows DeRozan on the following possession. He reacts quickly to his crossover and his wingspan helps him recover even though DeRozan is able to create a slither of space. It’s about as well as someone can be expected to defend DeRozan in this situation.
To be clear, DeRozan can make those shots — he converted 48.0 percent of his attempts against very tight defense this season and they made up almost a quarter of his offense — but Snell has the length to make them more difficult than DeRozan is used to. DeRozan has only attempted seven jumpers against Snell in the series and he’s yet to hit one.
DeRozan has knocked down a couple of floaters with Snell guarding him, but even those were heavily contested. All in all, DeRozan is shooting 4-for-13 with Snell guarding him. (It’s worth noting some of those have come from the 3-point line since Snell hasn’t been shy about leaving him in the corner to help on other Raptors like Kyle Lowry).
The only defender DeRozan has had success getting his shot off against consistently is Malcolm Brogdon. He’s an even 5-for-10 from the field with Brogdon guarding him and he hit a big shot in Game 2 by using his size advantage to get off a clean look over him from midrange. He’s also made the most of his strength on a couple of occasions to score easy baskets against Brogdon in the post.
When it comes to Snell, though, it helps that he has defenders behind him who can protect the rim, which allows him to be more aggressive when he picks DeRozan up at the 3-point line. Thon Maker has been huge in that regard. He’s been involved in 14 shooting possessions as the help defender against DeRozan and the Raptors star has only made four of those shots. Two of them came on the opening possessions of Game 1 as well, meaning he is 2-for-12 (16.6 percent) on his last 12 possessions against Maker.
Those possessions have ended in a number of ways. Maker’s presence alone as a 7-footer with a 7-foot-3 wingspan has altered several shots at the rim. He has the foot speed to anchor Jason Kidd’s aggressive defensive scheme by showing in the pick-and-roll and recovering in time to protect the basket against an elite pick-and-roll scorer like DeRozan.
Then there are the shots he has blocked…
…the ones he has changed with his verticality…
…and a couple where DeRozan simply looked spooked.
It’s especially impressive considering Maker is a 20-year-old rookie in his first postseason. Against a Raptors team that won’t bully him inside — Jonas Valanciunas is their only bruiser in the post and he’s playing a limited 22.0 minutes per game — there’s not much they can do to keep him off the floor moving forward. And in the few cases where he’s not the last line of defense, Antetokounmpo is usually in position to protect the basket.
Take the following possession as an example. Antetokounmpo leaves P.J. Tucker in the corner to block DeRozan’s shot out of bounds to punctuate their Game 1 victory. His reaction time is incredible. He hesitates for a split-second to defend the potential kick-out, only to then explode and block DeRozan’s shot as soon as it leaves his hands.
Here’s another example. Even though DeRozan ends up making this shot from Game 2, Antetokounmpo once again does all he can to force him into a tough shot without fouling.
Put that all together, in addition to DeRozan having a history of struggling in the playoffs, and it’s going to be hard for him to be the consistent scorer he was in the regular season in this series. The Bucks have length at every position and their versatility means different players can switch onto him when needed. Whether it’s Snell contesting his shots from midrange or Antetokounmpo and Maker chasing him down at the rim, he’s not playing with the same advantage he has against almost every other team in the league.
Next: The Raptors are losing to the future
Then again, DeRozan bounced back from a slow start in last season’s playoffs when he averaged 24.8 points on 47.2 percent shooting in the Raptors’ last nine games. With his team now down 1-2, they certainly need a similar performance if they have any hope of making it out of the first round.