The NFL schedule is here and the draft is coming soon. Although the regular season remains more than four months away, things are coming into focus.
In the National Football League, things are rarely fair. For example, the Miami Dolphins would be the favorite in the AFC South going into September. Unfortunately for Miami, it plays in the AFC East, despite its geography that would make the former a possibility.
The Dolphins will instead try to earn a playoff spot with their likely ceiling a wild card spot due to the New England Patriots’ presence. Instead of potentially having a home game in the first round, Miami is probably looking at more travel and a hostile environment.
The same can be said for the schedule. Upon release on Thursday, some teams smiled quietly when seeing their slates, while others cursed their luck. The aforementioned Patriots have an absurd five road games in six weeks following their bye week. Conversely, the Kansas City Chiefs have a league-high six primetime games and don’t have a single two-game road trip without a bye between the contests.
Before anybody wearing a tin foil hat comes out of the woodwork, this isn’t to suggest conspiracy. Every year, the schedule is put together by computers, which as Peter King of The MMQB documented, went through tens of thousands of scenarios before reaching the best conclusion. Regardless of which schedule was eventually chosen, some teams would feel slighted. Next year, it could very well be New England walking away happy, while Kansas City is miserable.
Going into September, there are six or eight teams with a real chance of winning the Super Bowl. Whoever emerges with the Lombardi Trophy will need good health and some luck, two things out of their control. Teams that are separated by precious little can see their hopes dashed or buoyed by the smallest of advantages. Scheduling, alignment and a favorable draft board can make all the difference.
Speaking of the draft, it offers the best opportunity for contending teams to put a bow on the offseason, while setting themselves up for a run.
Last year, it was Atlanta benefiting from a strong class that included Deion Jones and Keanu Neal. New England also got rookie production, namely from Malcolm Mitchell, who caught six passes for 70 yards in Super Bowl LI.
This crop of youngsters offers one of the best classes this century. Many pundits are surmising that no fewer than 50 players are getting first-round grades, while some third and fourth-rounders are going to be starting in Week 1. The class is especially deep in the secondary and at both running back and wide receivers. Unless you are in desperate need of offensive linemen or a starting quarterback in 2017, this gaggle has the goods.
It is true every year to varying degrees, but this draft offers incredible uncertainty. Quarterbacks always come off the board quicker than their talents dictate, but need at the game’s most important position will do that. It will be no different come Thursday. None of these quarterbacks should be taken in the first round if one goes by best player available, but it would be stunning if any less than three are called to the podium.
The teams that could be making those calls include the Jets, Browns, Cardinals, Redskins, Texans and Chiefs, not to mention any franchise trading back into the bottom of the first round. Of the aforementioned squads, Arizona and Kansas City are the best landing spots for a developing talent at quarterback. Both have experienced signal callers to learn from, an ability to sit for a year, a terrific coaching staff and winning cultures. New York or Cleveland would be wise to amass talent regardless of position in their respective efforts to rebuild.
Come Saturday night, the NFL offseason will be complete, save for a few notable names (Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Colin Kaepernick, etc.). After that, its the occasional OTA and months of silence before the furious chase begins.
Power rankings
Top 12 games in 2017
1. Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Week 14)
2. Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (Week 14)
3. Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (Week 7)
4. Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (Week 1)
5. Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 12)
6. Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (Week 10)
7. Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (Week 6)
8. New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (Week 11)
9. Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (Week 5)
10. Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (Week 7)
11. Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (Week 17)
12. Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (Week 12)
Quotable
"“As soon as the Super Bowl was over, I started working out and trying to make this season a lot better than last year because not going to the playoffs, it hurt after going winning the Super Bowl.“I know everybody on this team came back ready for that not to happen again. I can just see it guys’ demeanor, the way they are working and their attitudes. It kind of reminds me of the Super Bowl season.”"
– Broncos safety T.J. Ward, stating his belief that Denver will be back in 2017
Ward is one of the better players on what should once again be a terrific defense in Denver. The question is how the offense will pan out. Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch is going to start under center, and while Ronald Leary was signed to be an upgrade at guard, the tackle position is deeply troubling. Menelik Watson, Donald Stephenson and Ty Sambrailo are all backups, but two will start for the Broncos.
The AFC is going to be very tough this season. Kansas City, New England and Pittsburgh all appear locks for the postseason barring heavy injuries. The Raiders are also a strong candidate, while the Dolphins, Titans, Texans and Colts all could win 10 games without much surprise. If Denver is to reach the postseason again, the offense has to step up in a major way.
Random stat
In 1973, Bills running back O.J. Simpson rushed for 2,003 yards on 6.03 yards per carry in a 14-game regular season. That year, Simpson gained 200 or more yards in three contests.
Last year, the entire league only saw four 200-yard games. Oddly enough, three came from Jay Ajayi.
Info learned this week
1. Reuben Foster is draft’s most-interesting man
The former Crimson Tide standout was an absolute top-10 pick going into the draft process. Now, after being ejected from the combine and failing a drug test, there are a litany of opinions about where Foster should go. Former NFL general manager Michael Lombardi believes Foster is a second-round selection, while NFL Network draft guru Mike Mayock says he’s a top-20 pick, at the worst.
At some point, talent will supersede risk for a team with a need at inside linebacker. Foster is the best prospect at that position since Luke Kuechly in the 2012 draft. If Foster goes early, the Bengals are a great fit. If he slides, look for the Redskins and Chiefs to be interested.
2. Eagles, Redskins face brutal schedules
Every year, the NFL schedule is released and pundits pour over each team’s docket, looking for the roughest roads to the Super Bowl. While an argument can be made for the defending-champion Patriots, who play five road games in six weeks, the Redskins and Eagles might win this unfortunate title.
Philadelphia and Washington each play the Giants and Cowboys for a quarter of their schedules. Both travel to Kansas City, with the Redskins drawing a Monday night contest. The Raiders and Broncos are also looming (albeit at home). Additionally, the teams will travel to take on the Seahawks, while the Eagles tack on a trip to face the Panthers.
3. NFL has intriguing holiday slate
The schedule came out on Thursday night, and it appears the league mostly got it right in terms of holiday scheduling. On Thanksgiving, the Cowboys and Lions are hosting their traditional games, with the Chargers and Vikings coming to town, respectively. In one corner, we get Dak Prescott and Philip Rivers squaring off. In the other, an age-old divisional rivalry that could have playoff implications. The nightcap is solid as well, with the Giants visiting the Redskins.
Week 16 also falls with Sunday being on Christmas Eve. While their is no Sunday night game, Christmas sees a doubleheader featuring Steelers-Texans and Raiders-Eagles. Only quibble here? The Cowboys visit the Seahawks on that Sunday. Why not swap that and the Pittsburgh game? Regardless, the NFL is giving us plenty of holiday goodies.
4. Glen Coffee prepares a comeback
It’s a longshot, but former 49ers running back Glen Coffee is attempting to play once more. At 29 years old and after a seven-year hiatus for a military stint, the former Alabama star has the itch. It’s tough seeing a team giving Coffee more than a quick look in training camp, when the rosters are at 90 players and dreams are big.
If Coffee makes a 53-man roster, it would be a terrific story. Few players can take time off — let along seven years — and get back in any capacity. Perhaps San Francisco kicks the tires on its old draft pick. If not, there are multiple teams in need of a running back, including the Giants, Ravens, Saints and Browns.
5. Jaguars not sold on Bortles’ option
Jacksonville endured a disappointing campaign in 2016, winning just three games en route to a last-place finish in the AFC South. Blake Bortles was supposed to make the proverbial leap in his third year, but ended up completing less than 59 percent of his throws along with 16 interceptions.
Last week, general manager Dave Caldwell stated Bortles’ fifth-year option, which has to be exercised by May 3, remains an undecided issue. If it’s picked up, Jacksonville owes Bortles more than $18 million in 2018.
It’s a gamble either way. If Bortles struggles again and the option is picked up, the Jaguars are stuck for another year at a prohibitive cost. If the 25-year-old finally shines and has free agency looming, Jacksonville could lose him for a compensatory third-round pick.
The smart move? Decline the option. If Bortles is great this season, slap the franchise tag on him for a little more than $20 million.
History lesson
The Cardinals played in St. Louis from 1960-87. In that time, they reached the postseason three times but never hosted a contest. They also failed to win any of them. Once the Cardinals moved to Phoenix in 1988, the city remained without an NFL franchise until 1995, when the Rams relocated from Los Angeles.
In 1999, the Rams shocked the football world behind the right arm of Kurt Warner, winning 13 games and earning the NFC’s top seed. St. Louis finally hosted a playoff game, seeing its team upend the Vikings and Buccaneers before winning Super Bowl XXXIV over the Titans.
Parting shot
For some franchises, the draft represents the last true gasp of current coaching staffs and front offices. With the draft being the last — and best — opportunity to acquire talent, much of the dye is already cast for the 2017 season and its outcome.
In cases like the Jets and Bears, this is proverbial make-or-break time. New York and Chicago are both large-market teams with fanbases starving for a winner. If both teams finish sub-.500 again, it’s like that ownership cleans house in both situations.
Meanwhile, other franchises are trying to get over the championship hump. Can the Falcons find that extra defensive piece? Will the Chiefs land a franchise quarterback for the future? Do the Packers find a shutdown cover-corner?
For all 32 teams, the draft represents hope. The only difference is the kind of hope it brings.