What’s next for Paul George and the Pacers?
After the Pacers were swept by the Cavaliers, Paul George was understandably asked about his future. He, also understandably, didn’t really want to talk about it.
But George, and the Pacers, now have nothing more important to consider than George’s future. He’s 26 – almost 27 – and in the peak years of his career. He’s a legit two-way star who can slide around to different positions (even if he doesn’t want to) in a league that values this type of player more than ever. He has also, throughout this season, sounded frustrated and disappointed in what is happening with his team — struggling to the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference with a 42-40 record, then being unceremoniously swept by the Cavs in four games, all of which they could have won with a little late-game execution.
As has been well publicized, George’s contract is up after next season. And unless he makes an All-NBA team this year — which seems possible after how well he played over the last month of the season — Indiana doesn’t have much financial leverage to entice him to stay. Per USA Today, he will stay if it’s the right situation for him to win.
This is the problem the Pacers face this summer. They have a year to prove to George that this is the right situation for him, that they can in fact get past LeBron. But what can they actually do this summer that will make them a competitor in the East? If they decide they can’t meaningfully upgrade the team or miss out on their top options, do they have to trade George?
As far as improvements go, it won’t be easy for the Pacers to get George help and, after watching their series against the Cavs, it’s clear that they’ll need plenty of it it. Heading into the summer, Indiana has just over $6 million in cap space. That number can jump by getting rid of some cap holds, but it also seems like much of their cap space will have to be used to re-sign Jeff Teague. After making $8.8 million this year, he’s due for a pretty significant pay bump. And if the Pacers want to keep C.J. Miles, a valuable 3-and-D-ish wing who can opt out of a deal worth well below market value, they’ll have to pay up for him too.
Indiana also doesn’t have many trade avenues to get George another co-star. Myles Turner is the team’s best asset, but there’s not really any realistic deal that could present itself that would make dealing him worth it. In fact, a full-on Turner breakout season is likely the Pacers’ best chance of giving George a co-star with Teague (assuming they re-sign him) as the third man.
But the question then becomes: Is that good enough to win the East? By committing to those three, even with George as the centerpiece, the Pacers would be building around a group that finished seventh in the East this year. Even if Turner improves in a meaningful way, will that get Indiana any higher than fourth, or maybe fifth, in the East? And if that happens are the Pacers ever going to get where George wants to be? Are they really going to beat LeBron and the Cavs? This feels like it’s headed in one specific direction — back to where they are right now.
It’s understandable why the Pacers wouldn’t want to trade George. He’s a potential top-five player on a franchise that has struggled to find them. Getting rid of him is a tough sell to the fans, too.
The Pacers, as the summer unfolds, have to set a few different courses of action. If July comes, and they feel comfortable that George is willing to come back and give it another go, signing Teague and filling out the roster is probably the smartest play in a week free agency class. If George wants to be convinced, a more aggressive course of action is probably best. But if George indicates that he wants out, Indiana then has to attach a baseline value to George. Is that draft picks? Is that young players around Turner’s age? Is it a combination of both?
The last option may be the best for all parties involved. With Turner in place, Larry Bird could deal George to a number of teams. The Lakers, assuredly, would be interested. The Celtics, if they are willing to trade any assets, could do the same. And maybe teams like the Rockets, Clippers or Nuggets could make things interesting with their own offers, too. The right package gets George into a situation he might want to be in (and could still test out) while the Pacers can rebuild with being ready to win in a few years being the goal.
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But George hasn’t indicated that he wants change just yet. And if he doesn’t it’s to justify trading him because of how good he is. So, for now, it’s on George to answer the question he was asked after Game 4: What does his future look like?