MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Clayton Kershaw’s mastery of Giants could pave the way for an under

Clayton Kershaw has been at his best throughout his career when taking on the rival Giants. Tonight, he faces a pitcher making his third career start. Can Kershaw lead the way to another under?

Despite a standout outing from Miguel Gonzalez last night, a poor effort from Kansas City’s bullpen destroyed our under, though at least it wasn’t as painful or excruciating as some of other such instances later in games. In any event, let’s see if I can get us back into the win column tonight.

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 12-10-3 (54.5%), +110

Yesterday’s Result: Vargas vs Gonzalez Under 7.5 (Loss)

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants

Clayton Kershaw vs Ty Blach

UNDER 6.5 (-115) (via OddsShark)

An under bet is always worth consideration when it involves the best starting pitcher in the game — that obviously being the great Clayton Kershaw — but that might be even more so the case when he is matched up against his team’s arch-nemesis, the San Francisco Giants.

Kershaw, of course, has faced the rival Giants plenty of times throughout his future Hall-of-Fame career, and based on his extensively dominant track record, you could argue that the former NL MVP and Cy Young award winner pretty much owns them.

In 35 career starts (not to mention one relief appearance) versus the Giants, Kershaw is 18-8 with a superb 1.61 ERA (!), 0.81 WHIP (!!) and .183 batting average against! As anyone would expect, those are his best numbers against any opponent whom he’s faced more than a few times. Kershaw has also accumulated 278 strikeouts compared to just 42 walks in 263 1/3 total innings — his most opposite any team in the majors.

Interestingly, he’s been even better against San Francisco on their own field at AT&T Park, having a 10-4 record with a 1.36 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and .170 batting average against in 18 road outings. Simply put, they don’t get any more reliable than the Dodgers ace.

But then that brings us to his counterpart tonight, a fellow left-hander who is making just his third major league start and has only 22 2/3 career innings under his belt.

That would be Ty Blach, who has been tasked with the unenviable assignment of taking ace Madison Bumgarner’s spot in the rotation after he was placed on the disabled list last week. Previously, Blach had been working out of the bullpen, registering a 4.76 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in just under six innings of work.

But as hard as it may be to believe, Blach actually presents San Francisco with a fine opportunity to pick up a rare win over Kershaw. After all, one of the 26-year-old’s prior two starts at this level actually came in the final weekend of last season, when he impressively defeated Kershaw in a 3-0 pitcher’s duel — also in AT&T Park — thanks to eight scoreless innings of three-run ball. That contest had playoff ramifications for the Giants, too, so Blach certainly proved he can handle pressure as well.

The fact that both starters in this NL West affair are left-handed can also play a pivotal role in scratching out this under. The Dodgers were the worst team in baseball last year against southpaws (.214/.291/.333), and not much has changed in 2017, as they’re once again ranked near the bottom in that category with an undesirable .222/.308/.357  batting line. The Giants aren’t much better, owning a .229/.297/.353 line of their own opposite lefties.

While it may not play out exactly like their Oct. 1 encounter, as long as Kershaw is doing his usual dealing against his main rival, he’ll put us in a position to win this under.

Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers

Felix Hernandez vs Jordan Zimmermann

OVER 8.5 (-115) (via OddsShark)

As a bonus tonight, let’s go after this over in Detroit tonight. In the past, it would be a daunting task trying to catch Felix Hernandez in an over, but this isn’t the same King Felix that we’ve grown so accustomed to over the years.

Last season, Hernandez posted his highest ERA (3.82) and WHIP (1.32) since 2007, while winning just 11 ballgames, the third-fewest of his career. Clearly, this isn’t the same perennial Cy Young candidate that has been so good for so many years, and that apparent regression has carried over into this year, in which he currently owns 1.38 WHIP, as opponents are hitting .330 off Seattle’s formerly dominant ace.

Speaking of regression, that’s exactly what has happened to fellow veteran Jordan Zimmermann, except more aggressively, as the former National has not looked much like his old self since arriving in the American League last year.

In his first campaign with the Tigers in 2016, Zimmermann turned out to be a highly disappointing acquisition, registering a 4.87 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, both his highest marks in any year in which he made 10 or more starts. Things haven’t been any better for the 30-year-old, as he has a 5.94 ERA and 1.50 WHIP thus far. With the way both these guys are going, we could easily get one crooked number on the board, which would be very helpful for an over.

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