Fansided

Fantasy Baseball Owners: Pay Attention to These Stats

By Ryan Cook

Apr 16, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper (34) gestures to the dugout while rounding the bases after hitting a game-winning walk-off three run home run against the Philadelphia Phillies in the bottom of the ninth inning at Nationals Park. The Nationals won 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 16, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper (34) gestures to the dugout while rounding the bases after hitting a game-winning walk-off three run home run against the Philadelphia Phillies in the bottom of the ninth inning at Nationals Park. The Nationals won 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit

The start of the season is meaningless, or so we’re told. Games don’t count, standings mean nothing, and stats are irrelevant. But is that really the case?

April has been a fascinating month.

For nearly four weeks you’ve been told what to do and what to think. Don’t overreact, don’t panic, and most importantly, don’t pay attention to anything statistical, because the first month of the season basically means nothing.

All of that is sound advice. While you’re busy trying to find a way to replace Madison Bumgarner though, there are plenty of trends happening in baseball now that you should really be down on.

The last week of April/beginning of May has kind of, unofficially, become reevaluation week. It’s a time to sort out why you’re in last place as an owner, or why you were so slow on picking up Cody Bellinger. Whatever your problem is, here are some stats worth paying attention to as we head into the thick of things.

Eric Thames’ Crazy Contact Rates

You can find just about any amazing stat to accompany your Thames praise now, but the ones I find most astonishing lie within his contact numbers. It’s hard to compare 2017 Thames to his previous Major League numbers from 2012, but now, he’s swinging at exactly 17.7% fewer pitches inside the zone than he was during his time with the Blue Jays five years ago.

Thames has hit eight HRs against the Reds this season, and if you own any of the Cincy’s pitching staff, it’s probably worth sitting them against the Brewers. Back to my point though, Thames also has a 91.8% contact rate inside the strike zone, which is up six points from 2012. All of this means that Thames is not swinging at pitches outside of the zone, and has somehow managed to stop hacking at pitches high and inside – his previous kryptonite. Thames has only struck out 18 times this season and has a whopping 11 HRs to date.

Eric Hosmer’s Gross Ground Ball Rate

Eric Hosmer is a mess. Plenty of you can now say “I told you so”, but I don’t think anyone saw this coming.

In 20 games, Hosmer has a measly two extra-base hits (a double and a HR) and has looked completely lost at the plate. Really, many of his ugly stats are worth paying attention to, but his career high ground ball percentage of 61.5% is by far the most alarming. The majority of these grounders have been pulled to right field, which isn’t unusual for him. He’s swinging at 56% of pitches away, outside and towards the top of the zone, so it’s not really hard to imagine why Hosmer is having a tough time.

Jonathan Villar vs. Lefties

Jonathan Villar hit eight of his 19 HR’s against lefties last season. This year, he’s 0-for-22 against southpaws and has a grand total of nine strikeouts to go along with it.

The sudden change in Villar’s overall game is obvious, he’s been a strikeout machine to start the season, and looks like a shell of the former breakout star he transformed into a year ago. Obviously, it’s not too late to right the ship, but Villar either needs to move away from the leadoff spot in the Brewers lineup or simply find a way to time his swing with pitches thrown inside the zone.

Villar’s contact rate is at a career-low 71.4% despite his 4 RBI’s on Tuesday – he’s also swinging at more pitches outside of the zone than ever. Maybe sticking to one side of the plate is the key to recovery.

Justin Wilson’s Freakish Four-seamer

K-Rod hasn’t been terrible in save situations for the Tigers this year, but he’s allowed three runs and four hits in 2.2 innings of work this week, leaving many to wonder what the future holds for the 35-year old.

Behind K-Rod is Justin Wilson, a flamethrower whose four-seam fastball is averaging 96.35mph this season and creating a whiff of 19.28% in just 8.2 innings pitched. He’s definitely worth an add for anyone in need of bullpen help (he’s owned in only 14.3% of leagues) and while he may not be a long-term option, his 12 strikeouts certainly look impressive.

Wilson’s fastball hasn’t allowed a hit this year, and neither have any of his pitches for that matter. Committing to a lefty might be daunting for some, but he’s shown great command that I can definitely get behind.

Bryce Gon’ Bryce

Bryce Harper is being special again. So what Bryce stat impresses me the most this time? His ridiculous .727 AVG against lefties, to go along with his eight hits and three doubles all in only 14 plate appearances.

The last time Bryce killed some southpaws was in 2015, where he finished with a .318 AVG. He finished with 42 HR’s that year, and something called the NL MVP trophy. To say he’s on pace for something astonishing again is an understatement.

Can’t Catch Castellanos

It’s not even a debate on who is leading the league in hard contact rate this season. Wait, you didn’t know it was Nick Castellanos? Well neither did I, and that’s because his numbers don’t add up.

Castellanos is first in the league with a hard-hit ball rate of 59.3%. What’s funny about it is he’s hit only 3 HR’s and 13 RBI’s to this point, and while those stats are quite respectable, his 69.1% contact rate has him ranked 178th in the league. Either pitchers are doing a bad job of avoiding Castellanos’ bat or he’s discovered some unknown power we knew nothing about.

Stolen Bases? Yeah, right.

Don’t look now, because you may not like it. So you drafted Rajai Davis or Dee Gordon to sure up some steals? That’s a shame, neither of those guys even rank in the Top 10 in stolen bases to start the season.

Billy Hamilton is again leading the charge with 10 steals, but the experts who warned us that stolen bases would come at a premium this year were dead right. Batting averages are down, but when guys are doing somersaults like Chris Coghlan on the base path, it’s almost hard to wonder why players aren’t developing more tricky maneuvers to avoid the tag.

Next: Does Archie Bradley Compare to Wade Davis?

Time to Pay Attention

May is the month where things start to count. If you’re behind by 80 points in your league or sitting firmly in last place, it might be time to change a few things. Here are a few other stats worth paying attention to:

  • Jose Bautista’s AVG exit velocity: 86.50mph
  • Mookie Betts has struck out only three times
  • Freddie Freeman has had only five hitless games in 18 starts
  • Byron Buxton has a 46.6% strikeout rate

Good luck in the rest of the season.

Home/Fantasy Baseball