MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Trevor Cahill’s first start back in the desert brings us to a Godley under

Trevor Cahill has given his new club everything they could have hoped for and more in the early going, but he’ll have a tough test on tap against one of his old teams in his first start back in Arizona. Will he come away unscathed and help secure this under?

Coming in hot today, as not only did I go 2-0 last night with Wednesday’s over/under selections, I won both bets decisively, with Hernandez vs Zimmermann Over 8.5 resulting in a wild 19-9 score (!), while my Kershaw vs Blach Under 6.5 nightcap pick settled in with a 2-1 final. Now let’s just move on to tonight’s slate.

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 14-10-3 (58.3%), +310

Yesterday’s Results: Hernandez vs Zimmermann Over 8.5 (WIN), Kershaw vs Blach Under 6.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Trevor Cahill vs Zack Godley

UNDER 10 (+100) (via OddsShark)

It is always an intriguing variable when taking a bet that involves one or both starting pitchers matching up against an old team — especially for the first time since suiting up for them — and that is exactly what we’ll be dealing with in Trevor Cahill’s first start back at Chase Field since pitching for the Diamondbacks from 2012-14.

As a D-back, Cahill was pretty good if unspectacular, until a dismal final campaign in the desert that led to his demotion from the rotation despite entering the season as their No. 2 starter. In his prior two years, Cahill totaled 21 wins while registering a sub-4.00 ERA, and those were the last glimpses of him being an effective major league starter — until now.

Cahill inked a deal with the Padres over the winter so that he could get another shot at starting again following a successful two-year stint in the Cubs’ bullpen, and his decision has paid off wonderfully thus far. Despite a 1-2 record, the 29-year-old has registered a 3.44 ERA and an impressive 1.04 WHIP in three starts, while opponents have hit just .182 with Cahill on the rubber.

Most notably, the nine-year veteran has been racking up the strikeouts more than ever, having accumulated 21 punch-outs compared to only seven walks in his 18 1/3 innings of work. Apparently, Cahill has carried over his desirable K rate from his days as a reliever when he first started averaging a strikeout per inning.

Cahill is coming off his finest start as a Padre yet, hurling seven innings of one-run ball opposite the Marlins on Friday and surrendering only four baserunners. It was also his first home start for his hometown team, so there was definitely some extra motivation and emotions involved, which he appeared to handle extremely well. He’ll look for the same result in another potentially emotionally-charged assignment when he starts versus Arizona for the first time.

Of course, all it takes is for one pitcher to ruin an over/under, so we’ll also need third-year right-hander Zack Godley to at least give us some decent work in his first start of the season.

At first glance, that might not seem like the easiest task of him, considering Godley owns an unsightly 5.34 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in his 111 1/3 career innings at the major league level. But the 27-year-old has exhibited some potential to be better than that, and perhaps his most recent minor league outing before being called up indicate better things are ahead for the 2013 10th-round draft pick.

In a start for Triple-A Reno last week, Godley carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning, ultimately finishing with seven shutout innings to go with seven strikeouts, no walks and just one hit allowed.

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He said afterwards that the key for him was location and to get the opposing lineup to keep “pounding it into the ground” and “playing right in to what I wanted to do.” From those results, Godley should certainly have confidence, and if he can continue to mostly garner groundballs, he’ll be able to survive his first start of the season. At the end of the day, though, this could boil down to Cahill and how he fares in his return to Phoenix. All in all, with the line as high as 10, I think we have enough to work with for a successful under.

*Always check back to see if additional action has been added.