Fantasy Baseball: Early season hitting category leaders
By Gavin Tramps
In most formats of fantasy baseball, we are all chasing category stats. Let us have a quick look at the top performers in the five main hitting categories.
With nearly one month in the books, how are your teams fairing? If you picked Eric Thames, you are probably doing better than the team that drafted Josh Donaldson, Carlos Correa and Starling Marte with their first three picks in their fantasy baseball league.
This article is not meant to encourage any knee-jerk reactions; we are only 22 games into a 162-game season, but it is useful to see the surprising and not-so-surprising category leaders.
We will focus on standard 5×5 hitting categories
- Runs
- Home Runs
- RBI
- Stolen Bases
- Batting Average
Pitching category leaders will feature in a separate article. You will see that we have also included the preseason projected category leaders, and on the final page we give you a reminder of the category leaders from April 2016.
Whether you think it is the start of a 50 home run campaign or just a hot April with inevitable downward regression for the rest of the season, there is only one player with whom we can start.
HOME RUNS
Current category leader: Eric Thames 11 HR
Preseason projected category leader: Nolan Arenado 38 HR (equates to 5 HR)
Without a doubt, Eric Thames is the player of the month with an astounding total of 11 home runs (and there are still five days left in April as I write this).
He is hitting .371 (26-for-70) with 25 runs, 17 extra-base hits and 19 RBI. Plus, unusually for a power slugger of his profile, he has 16 walks. The 16.5 BB% puts him on pace to walk 100 times this year.
Thames became a power-hitter and an elite base-stealer in the KBO. He swiped 40 bags and hit 47 home runs in his debut season in Korea, and then proved the power was legitimate with another 40 home runs last year.
He quickly assumed legendary status, as noted by Ryan Divish:
"It was in Korea where Thames earned the nickname “God” for his prodigious power and production. And that imposing physique seemed to get bigger with each season."
It is unlikely that his production in any other month will match this incredible April. If you own Thames, check out Bill Pivetz’s excellent article on whether you should sell high.
RBI
Current category leaders: Bryce Harper, Marcell Ozuna, Charlie Blackmon 21 RBI
Preseason projected category leader: Nolan Arenado 119 RBI (equates to 16 RBI)
Bryce Harper
Despite 24 home runs and 21 stolen bases, Bryce Harper had a disappointing 2016, especially if you drafted him with the first overall pick. This year he slipped to an ADP of nine and has been sensational in his first 20 games.
The 24-year-old has a .400/.523/.800 slash line and has reached base 46 times in 88 plate appearances. Seven home runs in April would usually be a headline, but it has been eclipsed by Thames’ exploits.
If Harper can avoid injury, which is no certainty given the no-holds-barred way he plays the game, the Nationals’ superstar could be the top fantasy player at the end of the season.
Charlie Blackmon
The RBI category is not the one you expect Charlie Blackmon to be the leading contributor. In 2015, the Rockies’ outfielder had 58 RBI and 43 stolen bases. This year, he has 21 RBI and just one stolen base.
As with Harper, Blackmon’s seven home runs in April would usually be a far bigger story if it were not for the Brewers’ sensational first baseman.
Blackmon is one of the few true five-category players in the game and with this stunning start to the season in the home runs and RBI categories, the 30-year-old looks like a legitimate fantasy stud.
Marcell Ozuna
The Marlins’ outfielder was projected for 21 home runs and 78 RBI. He has already accumulated more than one-quarter of the RBI in just 21 games.
2016 was a bounce back season for the powerful right-hander with 23 home runs, and it looks like he wants to build on that this year. Although we are only looking at small samples, his hard-hit ball rate of 52.9% is in the top-5. If you’re interested, Nick Castellanos, Joey Gallo, Yandy Diaz and Eric Thames make up the rest.
Ozuna is only 26-years-old and seemingly getting better, so the potential for 2017 to be a career-year is high.
RUNS
Current category leader: Eric Thames 25 runs
Preseason projected category leader: Mike Trout 109 runs (equates to 15 runs)
We featured Thames in the Home Run slide at the start of this article but he is such an exciting player in fantasy, we needed to devote another page to him.
In fact, the Brewers are playing in the early afternoon game as I write this article and Thames has scored two more runs in the first two innings.
No other player split preseason opinions as much as Thames. I reached for him in an early draft for a fantasy baseball correspondent’s league:
"Q: You drafted Eric Thames with the 163rd overall pick, despite him having an expert consensus ranking of 236. Are you a buyer into his production in the KBO?A: Eric Thames is probably the toughest player to rank this year. The experts are really divided with 118th as the best and 312th the worst. No one expects a repeat of his 47-home run and 40-stolen bases debut season in the KBO but consecutive 40-home run seasons should not be dismissed. There is an opinion that KBO pitching is a similar standard to Triple-A, and 40 home run seasons in Triple-A are infrequent. I’m not expecting a 30 home run, 20 stolen base season but if it happens, I want it on my roster."
In 2010, Jose Bautista hit 11 home runs in his first 40 games. Many believed it was unsustainable, but he finished with 54 and established himself as the most feared power hitter for the next few years. No one knows whether Thames will replicate Bautista’s 50 home run season or regress in the face of inevitable pitching adjustments.
Last year, only two players swung at less than 20% of pitches outside of the strike zone. Such restraint inevitably results in better pitches to hit. Joey Votto (20.8%) is one of the best examples of this selectiveness. When he last played in the majors, Thames was swinging at 35.6% of pitches outside of the strike zone. Now he has transformed into an imposingly patient hitter swinging at just 19.8% of pitches outside of the strike zone.
STOLEN BASES
Current category leader: Billy Hamilton 10 SB
Preseason projected category leader: Billy Hamilton 61 SB (equates to 8 SB)
Last season, it looked like the Reds’ speedster was on the verge of the much-anticipated breakout after getting on-base at a career-high .369 OBP in the second half of the season. Even with regression built into preseason projections, he was expected to get on-base at .308 OBP.
Unfortunately, he has become a one-category player in April, and regardless of your league format, he is hurting you in AVG/OBP. The 26-year-old has only reached base 23 times in 88 plate appearances (17 hits and six walks), which equates to .213 AVG and .264 OBP.
The cliché of “you can’t steal first” is appropriate for Hamilton but when he does get on-base, he is very dangerous. Ten stolen bases in eleven attempts in just 19 games could be the difference between you winning the category or finishing mid-table.
He will need to start hitting to prevent the next generation of outfielders, Jesse Winker and Phillip Ervin, from stealing playing time from him. Unfortunately for Hamilton, he is currently mired in a 6-for-49 slump, that’s .122 AVG.
Even with his dire form at the plate, Hamilton is the only player with double-digit stolen bases, on pace for 70 bags over a full season. If he can stick at the top of the Reds’ lineup and if he can get back to last year’s on-base levels, then the elusive 100 stolen base season is a possibility. But they are big ifs.
BATTING AVERAGE
Current category leader: Zack Cozart .407 AVG
Preseason projected category leader: Jose Altuve .323 AVG
There is almost a zero chance of Zack Cozart finishing the season as the batting average champion. He is a career .250 AVG hitter but has gone 24-for-59 this year.
Has he achieved this with a radical change to his approach? No, he is benefiting from an unsustainably high .489 BABIP.
BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) is the recognized metric for determining whether the hitter is enjoying a stretch of good luck or has been unfortunate with the ball not falling for hits. Cozart’s career BABIP is more than 200 points lower at .279. Everything he is hitting this season is avoiding the fielders’ gloves.
The 31-year-old has seven doubles and league-leading three triples. For fantasy baseball owners, he is not contributing much in standard 5×5 counting stats with just ten runs, one home run, nine RBI and one stolen base.
Despite a wrist injury that kept him out of the lineup for one game, Cozart is the second-ranked shortstop over the last 15 days according to the ESPN Player Rater. Their rating calculator is misleading. His slash line of .368/.478/.737 over 19 at-bats is outstanding, but he has only scored four runs, with no home runs, one RBI and no stolen bases. Perhaps that also says much about the current state of fantasy shortstops.
April is a month of small sample sizes and overreactions. Will Thames be the home run leader at the end of the season? Possibly. Will Hamilton steal the most bases this year? Probably.
Last year, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story both hit ten home runs before the end of April. Josh Donaldson led the league with 24 runs. Bryce Harper, Anthony Rizzo and Robinson Cano tied with 24 RBI. Jose Altuve topped the speedsters with nine stolen bases, and Aledmys Diaz appeared from nowhere to lead the league with .423 AVG.
Just like this year, some surprising and some not-so-surprising.