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MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Gonzalez, Senzatela can produce under with continued April success

By Matt Zylbert

Apr 16, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez (47) pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies in the sixth inning at Nationals Park. The Nationals won 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 16, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez (47) pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies in the sixth inning at Nationals Park. The Nationals won 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /
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Gio Gonzalez and Antonio Senzatela have been two of the National League’s April stars in 2017. They meet Thursday at Coors Field with an over/under line of 11.

Well, frustrating bad beat in last night’s game between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks Under 10 bet to say the least. The score was at 5-3 going into the ninth, needing Fernando Rodney — who was a perfect 6-for-6 before that blown save — to simply close out the worst team in the league. Instead, he ends up surrendering a pinch-hit three-run bomb to .102-hitting dead-bat Ryan Schimpf to cost us the bet.

For the record, Schimpf was 6-for-59 this season entering that at-bat! Anyway, let’s move on.

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 14-11-3 (56%), +210

Yesterday’s Result: Cahill vs Godley Under 10 (Loss)

Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies

Gio Gonzalez vs Antonio Senzatela

UNDER 11 (-105) (via OddsShark)

This one figures to be a challenging under, considering these are two of the best offenses in the league who have already engaged in three consecutive high-scoring affairs to begin this series entering today’s finale.

But it will also involve a promising pitching showdown between two starters who have absolutely shined throughout the first month of the campaign, and they’ll both look to remain strong heading into May.

Veteran Gio Gonzalez has been one of the National League’s best in the early going, amassing a 2-0 record through his first four starts to go with a terrific 1.35 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. April has statistically been his best month throughout his solid 10-year career, so his success at the onset of 2017 is no coincidence and he’s clearly in a groove.

And then there’s rookie right-hander Antonio Senzatela, who has been just fantastic in his first taste of big league action.

The 22-year-old is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his four assignments, and while his 17 strikeouts in 26 innings pitched is nothing to brag about, he’s still looked really good overall. That’s why he’s registered seven innings in each of his last three outings, and he’s been consistent, too, yielding three runs or less each time he takes the hill.

Being getaway day, there are some key regulars sitting, so that’s also something to benefit from. At the core of it, it’s two starters faring extremely well right now, and with the over/under like at 11, they’ll both have some room for error as well.

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