MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Taillon, Conley look to keep it going when they match up in series opener

Jameson Taillon and Adam Conley are both out to nice starts in 2017, and matching up against one another in Friday night’s series opener at Marlins Park could lead to a successful under.

It was a shame to lose that Nationals-Rockies Under 11 yesterday, as both Gio Gonzalez and Antonio Senzatela went at least six innings and provided enough decent work to win that bet. Unfortunately, the same could not be said of Colorado’s bullpen, yielding a crooked number in the seventh frame alone to sink our under. Let’s try to get it back on this final Friday in April.

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 14-12-3 (53.8%), +105

Yesterday’s Result: Gonzalez vs Senzatela Under 11 (Loss)

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins

Jameson Taillon vs Adam Conley

UNDER 8 (-120) (via OddsShark)

This is already my third over/under bet this year involving talented Pirates youngster Jameson Taillon — after going 1-1 in the previous two (both also unders) — and there’s plenty of reason to invest in the second-year right-hander as much as possible.

In turn, you can also make a similar suggestion concerning his counterpart this evening, fellow rising hurler Adam Conley, who is also out to a nice start in 2017.

Both of these starters have enjoyed notable success in the season’s first month. Taillon, for instance, is 1-0 in four starts with a 2.13 ERA, while opposing hitters have registered just a .228 batting average off the 25-year-old.

As long as he begins to bring down his walks a bit, he can be even better, but at the very least, Taillon will be eager to take the mound tonight after unraveling a bit versus the Yankees last weekend. Thus, we can trust him to get back on track.

Conley will be making his fourth start of the campaign, looking to continue his solid work thus far. He’s allowed just five runs combined in his previous three assignments, and has notched a quality start in each of the last two.

The 26-year-old southpaw looked especially good his last time out (in an under I covered last Friday that unfortunately pushed when it was 1-1 in the bottom of the seventh), holding the Padres to one run over six innings and striking out five.

Unlike that last start, Conley will be working from home tonight at pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, where he has typically been better since debuting a couple of years ago. In fact, in each of his prior two seasons, Conley has produced an ERA nearly a full run lower in Miami compared to on the road. His stats are also considerably better at night than during the daytime, too.

Conley should also benefit from his opponent’s struggles opposite southpaws, as Pittsburgh ranks 21st in baseball with a .227 average versus lefties.

All in all, it’s a nice National League pitching matchup to work with, especially given that line of 8 in a park that favors pitchers.

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