MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus May 1

This is the Monday, May 1st edition of the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column.  We’ll identify top pitching plays, along with mid-range and cheap value options.  There’s also a player we’ll peg as a sneaky pick of the day.  Finally, we’ll discuss pitchers to avoid in your lineup, and target for hitting.  Evaluating daily pitching is a vital part to building your MLB FanDuel lineup for a big pay-day.

After a weekend packed full of loaded daily schedules, Major League Baseball takes a bit of a breather with only eleven games on the slate for tonight.  But that’s still 22 pitchers to look through, giving us plenty of options for tonight’s lineups.  However, as I was digging through the weeds, I realized most of our options aren’t great for pitching tonight, and are juicy for hitting.  So we were easily able to narrow down our best pitching options to three picks, one for each salary range.  But we’re going to throw in a fourth option, as a sneaky pick as well.

Finally, we’ll list several teams who have ideal BvP, Batter versus Pitcher, match ups tonight.  So you know which hitters to target.  Here’s a look at the list of games we’ve narrowed our search down to:

CLE Trevor Bauer at DET Daniel Norris (7:10pm ET)

NYM Robert Gsellman at ATL Julio Teheran (7:35pm ET)

MIL Zach Davies at STL Michael Wacha (8:15pm ET)

SF Johnny Cueto at LAD Clayton Kershaw (10:10pm ET)

Let’s start by looking at our top scoring, but also most expensive, MLB FanDuel pitcher for Monday night…

Next: Top Scoring Pitchers

Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitcher

Aside from giving up eight hits and four earned runs to the Rockies in Colorado earlier in April, Clayton Kershaw ($12,600) has pitched right on cue this season, near perfection.  Given any pitcher has trouble with the environment in Colorado, it’s not surprising it’s where he struggled most so far this year.

Kershaw is averaging 47.2 MLB FanDuel points-per-game, but if you factor out the game in Colorado, he’s averaging 53 points.  Even though $12.6K is expensive for any pick, that’s and incredible return to lock in each lineup, from one pick.  Each time Clayton is on the mound, he should be a heavy consideration.

Tonight, Kershaw and the Dodgers have a juicy match up against the Giants, in Dodger Stadium.  In almost 450 at-bats against Clayton, the Giants are only hitting a .159 average with a disgusting .205 OBP.  Unbelievably, the Giants only have two home runs against Kershaw, each hit by Posey. That’s only a home run 0.4% each time at the plate against Clayton.

Finally, Kershaw has an amazing 31% strikeout ratio against the Giants, and 139 strikeouts versus just 24 walks.  With Clayton on pace for 8+ strikeouts per game this season, barring an injury or sudden career-ending meltdown, Kershaw is a lock for 50+ points tonight.

Next: Top Mid-Range Pitcher

Mid-Range Salary Value

Can’t afford Kershaw?  You’re probably not alone.  There’s many attractive but expensive hitting options tonight.  In order to afford them, we’re going to dive down further into the salary list. Most pitchers below Clayton are unimpressive.  If you pay $9,200 for Cueto, you’re wasting all that salary on a low point return.  Cole, McCullers, Porcello, and Vargas each have terrible BvP match ups.  Estrada and Bundy are facing hot lineups.  So who’s left?

Michael Wacha ($8,000) is quietly having a solid season this year.  Wacha has pitched at least six innings in each of his four starts this season.  Even more impressive, Michael has four quality starts, which is often at least 16-22 MLB FanDuel points before you factor in strikeouts.  Wacha faced a hot early April Reds lineup, and was able to survive against a great April Yankees lineup in New York.  So we know Wacha can survive tough lineups.

That’s exactly why we like Wacha tonight.  Most MLB FanDuel players likely will look at the Brewers match up and get worried.  The Brewers are a top 10 hitting value so far this season.  So that may scare off some players and cut his ownership.  But this Brewers lineup is only hitting .206 against Michael.  Also, similar to Kershaw, Wacha is mowing down nearly 30% of the Brewers hitters he faces with a K.  So with low offensive productivity and a high strikeout ration, we’re likely getting 35-40 MLB FanDuel points for only $8K in salary.  That gives us $4.6K in salary back, compared to Kershaw, easily providing enough salary for two $4K+ bombers

Sneaky Pick: Julio Teheran ($8,400).  While I love Wacha the most at the mid-range of salaries, Teheran is a sneaky great pick.  You’re paying a little more for Teheran, but he has a great track record against the Mets, already piling up 35 MLB FanDuel points earlier this season.  Also, it’s unlikely many players will like Teheran against the Mets lineup.

Next: Pitching Value

Pitching Value

Before you quickly fade all the lower-salary range pitchers, strongly consider Daniel Norris ($7,000) for a potentially incredible value pick tonight.  Norris struggled but still climbed to 20 MLB FanDuel points to start the season against the Red Sox.  And over the last two weeks, Dan couldn’t pitch a complete five innings, gave up four runs in each start, and only had 12-14 MLB FanDuel points.

But in mid-April, the Detroit Tigers young 23-year-old starter from Johnson City Tennessee had a six inning quality start against the Indians, in Cleveland.  Norris only gave up two hits and no earned runs.  He struggled with walks, giving up four, but also had five strikeouts for an impressive 43 MLB FanDuel points.

Tonight, Norris is facing the Indians against, this time in Detroit.  So why would we assume Norris owns the Indians and didn’t just have a flash-in-the-pan moment?  It’s because Norris does actually own the Indians.  Against this lineup, Daniel has only given up a .204 batting average and .290 OBP.  In 54 at-bats, Norris has only given up four runs and give doubles.  None of the Indians have yet to go-yard against Daniel, and he has about a 20% strikeout ratio.

So there’s a very good chance Norris can repeat his 40 MLB FanDuel point night tonight, on a very cheap salary.

Next: Offensive Pitching Target

Offensive Pitching Target

Typically I like Johnny Cueto ($9,200) as a solid pitching option.  But as we already discussed, he would be a waste of your salary tonight.  Corey Seager (SS – $3,000) and Justin Turner (3B – $3,200) are two players I’m targeting to either stack with Kershaw, or plug into my lineup with my value pitchers.  Seager is hitting .400 with a home run and double in 20 at-bats against Cueto. Turner is hitting .375 with a home run and two doubles in 24 at-bats.  Kershaw, Turner, Seager, and the Dodgers should have a great night tonight.

If you’re looking for a cheaper option at third, consider Jedd Gyorko (3B – $3,000).  Gyorko is hitting an incredible .700 in ten at-bats against Davies ($7,400).  

With the Braves facing the Mets Gsellman ($7,300), there’s another heavy stack option. Gsellman is giving up a .387 batting average against this Braves lineup, .449 OBP.  Matt Kemp ($3,900) has faced Gsellman nine times, and has a .444 average along with a double and home run. Also, Freddie Freeman ($4,600), and his hot bat, is another strong play against Gsellman.  The only issue with the Braves stack tonight, is that you’ll want to pick one of the lower-salary, high value pitchers for affordability.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel.  You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game.  But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours, or less, before a game.  So always stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup.  Also, weather events can cancel a game, crushing your entire lineup. So it’s important to become a weather geek, like me, if you want to stack that cash in MLB FanDuel.

Follow us on twitter, @fantasycpr, for updates as we get closer to lineup lock time.  Good Luck today FanDuelers!