MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Unusually high line in Phillies-Dodgers is attractive

Two starting pitchers with two interesting storylines will take the hill Sunday afternoon at Chavez Ravine, drawing an uncharacteristically high over/under line in the process. Can both hurlers provide enough quality pitching for the under?

Much-needed win yesterday afternoon to snap the three-game losing skid (which was sparked by that awful bad beat on Wednesday night), as we barely squeak out the Wheeler vs Strasburg Under 8.5. Let’s try to end the month strong with another positive showing today.

2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 15-13-3 (53.6%), +105

Yesterday’s Result: Wheeler vs Strasburg Under 8.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units

Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Nick Pivetta vs Hyun-Jin Ryu

UNDER 8.5 (+105) (via OddsShark)

Those who bet baseball and follow totals know that a game at Dodger Stadium rarely garners an over/under line above 8 — in fact, I can’t even think of the last instance in which this has happened.

That being said, it could also be an advantageous spot for bettors in Sunday afternoon’s series finale between the Phillies and Dodgers, with the lines-makers potentially overreacting to the two key elements involving both starting pitchers in today’s contest.

Of course, having action on a game that involves one of said pitchers making their major league debut can certainly be a tricky variable, and that’s exactly what we’ve been dealt here as it concerns 24-year-old right-hander Nick Pivetta.

A fourth-round draft pick by the Nationals in 2013, Pivetta was traded to Philadelphia in the deal for Jonathan Papelbon. Last year, in his first full campaign with his new organization, Pivetta was really solid, going 11-6 with a 3.41 ERA and a .235 batting average against between Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley, with his better results interestingly taking place at the latter stop.

That success at Lehigh Valley continued into this season, where he was 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in his first three starts before receiving the call-up. Additionally, Pivetta logged an outstanding 24/2 K/BB ratio across 19 innings of work.

He looks like he has all the tools to succeed at the big league level right away, including a good attitude, telling MLB.com: “It’s something that I’ve worked my whole, entire life to do. I’ve put a lot of other things aside for this.” In other words, that sounds like someone who is about to make the most of this opportunity, and he’ll be attempting to do so within the pitcher-friendly confines of Chavez Ravine for his debut.

Going for the Dodgers will be another interesting story, Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is set to make his fifth start of the season. Remember, this is the first time he’s been healthy after missing all but one start of the last two years due to shoulder surgery, so he’s certainly not taking any of his outings for granted as long as he has to continue to battle to remain in the rotation.

Fortunately for Ryu, he’s really coming off something to build off of, as he churned out by far his best performance of the young season his last time out, holding the rival Giants to one run on five hits over six smooth innings, walking one and striking out three. It’s also worth noting that he’ll be squaring off with a lineup that bats .237 versus left-handed pitching, 18th in the majors. The Phils are also 22nd in on-base percentage in that department with a .297 mark.

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Thus, Ryu appears to finally be trending again in the right direction, and as a prideful pitcher that currently holds undesirable numbers, he’ll be looking to do everything to ensure that continues. Pair that with Pivetta hopefully keeping his emotions in check and carrying over his minor league success into his first major league assignment, and that should add up to a victory for the under.

*Always check back to see if additional action has been added.