Toyota Owners 400 preview, forecast and prediction

The sun will be shining on Richmond International Raceway today, but will it show the way for some drivers who haven’t won yet in 2017 to get to Victory Lane?

Last week, rain gave NASCAR Cup Series fans Monday racing at Bristol. No such worries this weekend, as the sun will be out and temperatures will be high for the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond.

That’s not a small thing as the spring Richmond race has been affected by weather numerous times in the past, whether it was scheduled to run on Saturday night or Sunday afternoon. But teams will have to deal more with a hot, slick surface than clouds today, and without a whole lot of recent history to fall back on since the Toyota Owners 400 just switched back to a daytime race last year.

Defending race champion Carl Edwards is not on hand in 2017, but several drivers with multiple wins are, including Kyle Busch (who won four in a row from 2009 to 2012) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (though his last victory came more than a decade ago). Joey Logano won the 2014 race but will start from the rear after a transmission change on his No. 22 Ford, along with Austin Dillon, whose No. 3 failed pre-race inspection five times this weekend.

Matt Kenseth, who showed signs of life last week in Bristol, starts from the pole with first time sponsor Circle K. The cars near him include some of the faster rides so far in 2017, including those belonging to Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr. (second and third, respectively) and some who have had a rougher go of it like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (starting fourth) and Daniel Suarez (11th).

Next: Toyota Owners 400 grid, starting lineup

That mix should make for an interesting first stage if nothing else. And it’ll be nice to have NASCAR back on the weekend where it belongs, the better for not having to come up with an excuse to sneak away and watch in on Monday afternoon.

Forecast

According to Weather.com, it’s going to be a hot one in Richmond today. The race should start out under mostly sunny conditions before progressing to full on sunny, with high temps around 88 degrees. Dehydration has already been an issue for some drivers in previous races, but the primary on-track effect should be that there’s less grip. Racers say they like that because it leaves the outcome more in the hands of the competitors, but that’s only if they aren’t sliding around too much.

Three things to watch

• Maybe this is the week Joe Gibbs Racing busts out? It’s starting to sound like a broken record (remember those, kids?), but until one of the JGR cars finally notches a win, it’s one that deserves to keep coming up. The premier Toyota team has been just a half-step off the pace, but Kenseth is on the pole and Kyle Busch is starting seventh, so they’re right in the mix from the get go. A victory here would silence the critics, for sure.
• Was Bristol just a stumble for Kyle Larson? It’s hard to call a sixth-place finish a stumble, especially after leading hundreds of laps, but Larson’s No. 42 didn’t appear to have the long run speed to keep up at the end of the Food City 500. That’s rarely happened to the Cup Series points leader this year, and considering he just won the XFINITY Series race on Saturday, he could be right back at the front today.
• A victory lap for Junior? As mentioned above, Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s glory days at Richmond were long ago. Still, he clearly knows how to get around the three-quarter-mile layout, and one wonders if emotion from his retirement announcement earlier this week can push the No. 88 team to something special today. It would be a popular victory in the stands and the garage.

Prediction

Not everything has gone his way so far this season, but Kevin Harvick has the arrow pointed in the right direction after finishing fourth and third the last two weeks. He has a favorable starting spot and won at Richmond just a few years back, making him our pick to take the checkered flag and lock up a spot in the playoffs for all intents and purposes.

And for the dark horse pick, might as well stick with the aforementioned Ricky Stenhouse Jr. While it’s way too early to celebrate for the suffering Roush Fenway Racing camp, something appears to have clicked on for the No. 17 team, and it would not surprising to see Stenhouse contending for the win today — or at least far less surprising that it’s been for all of his Cup Series career to date.